The VIX futures curve is flatter than it was last year. otoh, we have had 10% pullbacks like in 1994 when the vix never was above 20 or so... so the idea that we will have a superspike with a pullback is speculative at best ... and who knows if we will have a pullback?
i take vxx bullishness as a contrarian indicator.
"I am not an investment hot shot or anything"
No, you're not. You're a gambler. Good luck, but house odds are against you winning.
There is not a 'maybe' on vxx hitting 4 ... it will hit 4 sometime in the next year or two. There is a less than 10% chance of it doubling on the way to hitting 4.
This is nothing like Aug 2011, this is a standard and normal correction, more like April-May 2012 or nov 2012 or even july 2012.
You did the right thing. The fact is that long or short, vxx can open anywhere on monday and you can wipe out your gains.
I closed out 23 and 24 calls today for 1 cent per. Why, when I know they would expire worthless?
well, there is a 1 in 1000 chance vxx would explode AH. might as well take the sure 99% gains vs random risk. I know, it happened to me once, where options at 18 strike expired 'worthless' when vxx closed at 17.80 but AH went up 50 cents, then next monday opened $1 higher. I learned from that: You dont lose money taking 99% profits like that.
lol so true these "I made money yesterday" I shorted a i'net company to zero, then bought somestuff in 2002 that was a 10 bagger, then in 2008 bought several 5 bagger stocks at the lows.
turned $60k into $3 million in 12 years.
The market is like that. It ignores things and then wakes up and pays attention to them.
These 4 days were a classic 50% retracement of the 1490 to 1590 move from feb to early april. note we are at 50 DMA as well.
the vix spike was like feb 07 but a study of other vix spikes like this week indicated ... nothing much. it doesnt portend anything statistically and the market ends up positive in median case in the 1 and 2 week period. what is clear though is we went from one vol range to another - very abruptly.
dont think we will get back to 12 vix soon. vix rises fast and falls ... slow.
GOOG blew the doors off:
- Excluding certain items, Google earned $11.58 a share, versus $10.08 a share a year earlier.
This balances out the IBM miss.
"careful, this is pump stage ... dump coming later. its been predictable 3 yrs in a row, the high is in mar/apr/may until nov/dec."
Dang, should have listened to myself from last week... didnt take anything off the table when it hit 1590...
the good news is that by year end it will be 1590 or more and vxx will be single digits.
WHY DO PEOPLE LISTEN TO WES ANYMORE?
"... I can not wait to go short this product but that time is not now. You will get a nice pop tomorrow from it and this market behaviour should carry until the end of the month."
ZERO CREDIBILITY. Nice pop?!? Worst VXX day in weeks. It was the PERFECT time to go short. I only wish I shorted more in the AH y'day.
He of all people should no that any and all predictions of VXX going higher are likely to embarrass the wannabe prophet.
"Good analysis, vxx was at 19.25 and s&P at 1562 when the bomb news hits. That's got zero market impact and futures are up 8pts --- so I predict back to 19.50 or so tomorrow."
- That was my prediction y'day and I was right, shorted more in the AM, action was more bullish than I expected frankly, as I thought 1565 would be resistance ... but now that acts as support.
Too much bullishness can be fragile ... that's my only worry right now.
Longer term, the market risk of Japan blowing up is not insignificant.
Since VXX is a POS it doesnt matter too much. You can even ride out a correction, its just the real bears and large panics that will kill you being short VXX. Y'day was NOT it.
Keep calm and trade on.
Too optimistic IMHO 1560s is now resistance. It went too high too fast is all. imho, back to crawling and rebase.
dear idiot: futures are up because the excess fear at the end of the market day monday has given way to more balanced view. We had the worst fall this year - it was overdone.
Good analysis, vxx was at 19.25 and s&P at 1562 when the bomb news hits. That's got zero market impact and futures are up 8pts --- so I predict back to 19.50 or so tomorrow.
If its any higher, I'll be adding to shorts fade the spike. This may kick off a pullback but this is the worst vol in a while.
I must say I've never seen volatility like the last 24 hours"
Huh. So you werent trading in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 or even spring of 2012.... newbie, eh.
Jeez yourself, now you are making garbage up.
"I am a white male" dont assume other white males are big a-holes like yourself.
yes, crazy osscilation from 20.50 to 21.50 and back again about 10 times. Just shorted more vxx at 20.85. dangerous time to short in some ways when vix is above vix futures but the likely outcome is for vix to fall and vxx to fall tomorrow. Fading the spikes is a high probability success trade.