The one difference I can see is Boeing and Airbus having discipline to reduce deliveries (as recently announced) and therefore helping prevent what happened in shipping and deep water drilling. Oversupply will hurt plane prices and in turn damage the suppliers, so good that we have a duopoly in plane manufacturers.
With a potential global slowdown, do you all think we have a lurking oversupply problem? Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this industry is showing signs of weakness however, the selloff makes me draw memories of drybulk shipping and drill ships. When times were good, shippers and drillers would order a never ending supply of ships and drill rigs. Eventually as those backordered ships hit the market, the market became oversupplied and rental rates plunged. Do you think this industry could be facing a similar problem? Why or why not?
After today's and the recent fall, FIT no longer priced for perfection. The are trading at like 12-13X earnings and even less when you factor in the cash on their balance sheet (they just added another $100M in Nov secondary).
So although fears of competition are valid, there still isn't a great alternative to FIT. Look at your collegues, friends and family and you will notice 9 out of 10 who own fitness bands are on FITBITs.Those considering a fitness bands are also talking about fitbits. The space is rapidly growing with no signs of slowing with many companies giving them out as Christmas gifts or part of a fitness plan. Competition will intensify, but fitbit is still the go to solution. Microsoft, LG, Motorola make great phones, but everybody still gravitates toward Apple and Samsung. Fitbit, likewise could hold this lead in the fitness band space, with better software and hardware, for a long time to come. With the rapid growth in this segment just beginning, and real competition probably at least a year or 2 away, the gopro doom and gloom just doesn't fit this scenario.
Isnt WAHA Capital, the Saudi fund buying AER? I guess it is also unfortunate that AER did a lot of stock buyback back when the price was a lot higher rather than pay down debt.
But, if debt is the problem, seems like every financial crisis these lessors get slammed, but business isn't really materially hurt. I remember last crisis (2008-2009), many of these lessors simply bought back their own debt that was trading at like 50 cents on the dollar.
Anyone know or have a thought on why AER is getting slammed so much worse than everybody else in the sector. Most other lessors are down -5% why AER down close to 10%. AER more risky?
Example of why depreciation, which is subtracted from revenue to get to earnings is a bad way to look at the business. BKD builds a building for $10 mil. Let's say they depreciate the building over 20yrs and therefore take expense (not a real cash outflow) of $500K/year for 20 yrs. Let's say annual revenues are $1 mil from this facility and other costs like labor are $550K/yr. It appears BKD is losing $50K per year ($1M - $500K Dep - $550K other cost). In 20 yrs, they turn around and sell this same building for $18 million. They've actually made $8M on the building, but in the last 20 yrs, they were getting dinged on earnings by a $500K/yr depreciation expense. That is why earnings aren't a good measure.
Depreciation expense is heavy in this type of industry, but real estate doesnt really depreciate, other than general maintenance upkeep. So earnings, which factors in heavy depreciation, shows little if any earnings, but that isnt the right metric to use. They can go sell one of their buildings that took millions in depreciation expense, and turn around and sell it for more than they bought/built it for. EBITDAR or CFFO, more a measure of cash, is used to value these firms.
Exactly the debt. Instead of buy backs, market will likely reward cyh if they delever with the strong cash flows they have. HCA holding up well because they aren't as levered. If management cuts acquisitions and excess capital spend and focus on chipping away at debt, we could be at $35 12 months from now. So much better to be an insurer these days, don't need expensive facilities and a need to manage debt while sitting back and just managing payments. Healthcare providers have got to balance the profit/risk pie as it is clearly in favor of insurers. Just look at the market cap of insurers vs hospitals. Largest insurer is pretty much larger than most the hospitals traded combined.
Is the global turmoil negatively going to impact BKD business going forward? I think no.
- Strong USD: BKD not a multinational so $ strength is not negatively impacting their financials
- US Economy: Holding up well as the recent almost 300K job growth shows
- Declining oil: This arguably helps BKD in the form of millions in energy bill savings. Also have mild winter
- Valuation: Real estate alone is worth more than current stock price according to even the most conservative analyst
- Cashflow: CFFO expected high $2 range, so trading at like 5X
- Potential cost cutting: Merging with Emeritus creates lower overhead savings
- Key risk is retirements get destroyed by market collapse and seniors cant afford going to BKD
With strong cashflow, company should pay down debt and do stock buybacks as opposed to building facilities or acquisitions. Simple/stable business with favorable demographics and selling for low valuations that is immune from international issues. BKD will come back, just hang tight.
What changed that caused THC to really plunge? Was Glenview, who was buying the the 50s, 40s, and 30s just out of his mind, or is there real value here, and THC is just in oversold territory probably further hurt by tax loss selling? Debt is definitely on the higher end for THC, so delivering a bit with proceeds from GA hospital sales, followed by a share buyback towards the end of next year with free cashflow generated, seems to be a path to getting a better valuation. Market seems to hate highly levered companies lately, but not sure if that is why THC as gotten hammered so hard.
Another year of improvements in sales volume, Fujairah terminal up and running, 10% or so EPS growth, and increasing of the dividend but the stock crashes 40%. Absolutely a mediocre year, but 40% is steep. Guess the question is where are the growth opportunities to further lift the long term valuation of ANW?
Should set up BKD nicely for a January rally. Stock is way oversold now and is trading well below pre-merger levels. Bargain hunting, earnings release, potential stock buyback plan, activist investors, are all catalysts for the stock.At these levels, fund managers will see value as CFFO is expected in the high $2/share range when stock is trading at $18.
THC expecting $1 billion in cash inflow from asset sales, including 600M from GA hospital sales. With EBITDA of $2.5 billion, THC has flexibility to either delever or do stock buy back. Since market is slamming the stock for being too levered, probably makes more sense for them to delever and postpone buybacks.
BKD falling off a cliff just as oil/nat gas prices plunge. Doesn't the warmer weather mean less use of heat, which is already cheap from the mild winter? In prior years, brutal winters and high flu season hurts occupancy rates, so does this warm winter now benefit occupancy rates? Overall, I would think energy costs would be drastically lower this year along with better occupancy helped by the mild weather.
There is a rate adjustment for oil prices, but not sure 100% is passed on. However, the oil price decline should provide more room to raise electricity prices without being incrementally burdensome for the consumer. Either way, lower oil prices are a benefit to the discussions of options for PREPA going forward.
PREPA's input for electricity is oil and with oil plunging like this, that means hundreds of millions in savings. This can only be good for PREPA finances and with a small price hike on electricity rates, the combination of the two should go a long way to alleviate liquidity concerns.
With such a low CFFO and trading below real estate value, share buyback will likely be announced over any acquisitions of other senior nursing facilities. The returns they can get by buying their own stock is more compelling then growing via buying smaller operators...
Zacks doesnt give any sound rationale for their downgrades and upgrades. It is more like a computer generated rating when they see momentum in one direction or another.
Something must be up given the heavy volume selling today on no news. Probably insiders know something negative pending...
No news and BKD is in a fairly safe and steady business not impacted by oil prices or rate hike. Why would it fall off a cliff like this. Expected to have cash flow per share of in the high $2 range so trading at like 7X cash flow. I can see oil stocks plunging day after day but a stable senior living play that is focused on the US, where the economy is strong and demographics are favorable, makes no sense to me.
Every analyst out there is in agreement that the real estate alone is worth $20+ per share, not to mention the operations of the business.
Is there something I'm missing? Tax loss selling or hedge fund forced liquidation?