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Gastar Exploration Inc. Message Board

buyacramer 845 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 17, 2014 9:11 AM Member since: Feb 10, 2011
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  • Google is not expensive trading at like 18x next year earnings with 20% growth rate... Companies like Boeing and American Express trade at about the same multiples with far less growth rates. Plus Google even said to not read too much into the quarterly fluctuations of rates.

  • Reply to

    Buy FVE and dont have to worry about Europe...

    by buyacramer Oct 10, 2014 9:44 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Oct 14, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    There are much better short plays out there than FVE, which is trading at a fraction of what it is worth and is positioned well in the strong economy of the USA. Go short National bank of greece or something that really will likely fall when Europe tanks.

  • So on top of a strong economy, favorable demographic shifts, rising real estate values, what else will FVE benefit from??? How about 20-30% lower oil prices. I doubt they will go and pass on cheaper heating bills to their customers, so this could be a tailwind that further improves margins.

  • not sure what all this doom and gloom is about. Fact is, lower oil prices will help AAL to the tune of billions if oil remains in the 80s or lower.

    Ebola has yet to hurt airline travel, but airlines have lost billions in market cap. The only thing we know for sure now is that oil prices will help AAL by upwards of a billion in savings so why are we crashing? To be honest, with oil prices this low, 1-2% dent in traffic will be more than offset by 20-30% lower oil prices.

  • Unemployment rate low, jobs humming, incomes rising, people getting older, and housing values increasing here in the US. Buy FVE and you wont have to worry about what the Euro or Russia does.

  • This has worked for the past couple of quarters and there aren't reasons why it wouldn't work again. ANW has pulled back 10-15% with ANW near lows for the year, but ANW's business isn't damaged and ill likely improve. History will likely repeat itself and ANW should easily trade back above $10 after earnings.

  • Reply to

    Does falling oil prices benefit SKYW?

    by buyacramer Oct 1, 2014 8:52 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Oct 6, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    So how does SKYW benefit from the booming airline industry? They do over 3 billion in revs and continue to show losses as oil prices collapse and the whole airline industry is making money hand over fist? Who would ever want to be in SKYW's business and operate as a non-profit?

  • Surprised to see Skyw fall so much given oil is tumbling. Shouldn't this rapid fall in oil prices add to EPS? Most airlines don't hedge 100% their fuel costs. Thoughts?

  • If I were in Mgmt and Portnoy's shoes and given the public is looking closely at all the funny business, I'd want to make sure this doesn't look so bad to the extent it garners excessive negative publicity. So I think it is in everybody's interest to at least give FVE a reasonable (not great) rate of return. When FVE shareholders are completely screwed over(like they are now), that is when they start reporting to SEC, getting more involved in voting, bombarding investor relations, and banding together to call foul. So why would mgmt and Portnoy be happy with this steady state?

  • Company trades at ~$150 million market cap. 2 years ago, FVE was doing about ~$50M EBITDA. FVE hasn't showed strong ability to convert increasing revenue into increasing EBITDA and earnings, but the company is getting larger via acquisitions and managing more properties. If conversion improves and gets to EBITDA achieved 2 years ago, you can see the potential and how undervalued this will look. Sure, things can continue to look ugly and continue to look like a non-profit, but if it turns...

  • Reply to

    Bottom is in.

    by rsmith1022000 Sep 19, 2014 3:24 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 19, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Good timing. I think the risk return is extremely good buying in today. Unfortunately, I own too much as it is and cant add, even at these giveaway prices.

  • Reply to

    I am running out of cash...

    by buyacramer Sep 18, 2014 6:11 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 18, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    The senior living space has never burned me in the past. Sunrise and Emeritus were big wins and FVE looked like the next to pop as all metrics (P/B,P/S, minimal debt, etc) pointed toward this was the one in the sector that had clearly been left out. I realized the related party stuff, but I also had success with Travel America (TA), which had the same sort of set up.

    This still will likely come back, it is a mater of when? Investors' memories can be short lived when you start showing a quarter or two of good results. The same shareholder frustrations existed back when TA was in the $4s and all the talk about the phony setup to enrich Portnoy and other related parties, but in a year or so it is at $12. If I were Portnoy and Company I wouldnt want this looking too bad to the point it really garners trouble for myself.

    Nonetheless, this is a huge opportunity cost to have funds tied in FVE for a year or two. But quit honestly, with markets at all time highs and valuations stretched, I dont have many good stock ideas that are a whole lot better than just sitting on FVE.

  • With the market at new highs, this looked increasingly cheap and I definitely made the mistake of buying too much as it continued to drop. Learned two lessons the hard way. Don't buy companies with horrible corporate governance practices and don't continue to buy on the way down, no matter how cheap something looks.

  • Reply to

    I think FVE is running out of cash....

    by msears99 Sep 18, 2014 3:28 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 18, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    Good call on shorting this, but come on $1-$2? Giving them a market cap of like $50M? Remember a 100 unit or so senior living community they just bought was for $20M. They own (not lease) about 3,000 units. at $1 or $2, they might as well buy back their own stock rather than go buy other senior living communities.

  • Reply to

    I think FVE is running out of cash....

    by msears99 Sep 18, 2014 3:28 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 18, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Running out of cash? Hope you aren't implying they have liquidity issues. Remember, they are going out and acquiring businesses and doing capex renovations, which arent required. So let's not make it sound like they are in a cash crunch.

  • We all agree FVE has great assets worth several hundred million $ and they generate over $1.3 billion in revenues. All shareholders are teed as hell, but what can we do about it????? Nothing, exactly! FVE is in the firmest grip of the related parties and mgmt can screw up as much as they like, financials can take forever to get released, but as long as the related parties' interests are served, FVE's stock price doesnt matter. So what are helpless shareholders to do in a situation like this? Get out, move on and take this as a lesson learned about investing in companies with poor corporate governance practices or just sit it out and hope Portnoy and gang throw you a bone once in a while to shut you up.

  • Twice the average volume already and down 6-7%. I thought people would have been relieved that they finally got financials out. Q4 results werent good, but we know metrics have trended a lot better in 2014. So what was so disturbing that is causing all the selling today? Honestly, Im relieved financials are out and I know recent metrics are doing well and continue to improve qtr over qtr. The silence was the worst possible situation in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Any Reason to Not Take it Private?

    by buyacramer Sep 18, 2014 10:38 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 18, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I agree, not much to look forward to short term. Shareholders can either sit tight, continue to give mgmt and Board and earful, and wait it out for a few quarters and hopefully operating metrics improve and new shareholders get attracted or simply bail and take the tax loss, if you are like me and bought at higher levels.

    As you pointed out, an area of positive is that we at least know occupancy rates are 70 basis points higher than Q4 2013 and average pricing rates are up about 2%, in line with their goal of 2-3% annual increase. So you have the two key metrics moving in the right direction. Those who decide to stay in FVE should just remove it from your ticker list and start tracking it again in 2015.

  • Why even have this as a publicly traded company? If the company wants to engage in self dealings to enrich themselves and just blow off shareholders, why not just take it private at this dirt cheap valuation? They'd save millions on audit fees from being a publicly traded company, administrative salaries, and save effort from answering to irate shareholders. Further, there wouldnt be a flashlight on all their self dealings and boneheaded moves. Im sure management and the conflicted Board dont like all this heat from shareholders. So why bother with all the headache? Offer a small premium to today's share price and still get the company for less than the value of the real estate alone. It could also boost employee morale. Who wants to see their company stock continue to crash, that cant be positive.

  • buyacramer by buyacramer Sep 16, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Pretty heavy selling here after the 8K was released on providing financials to banks by Friday for the revolver they have. Absolutely, it is frustrating the lack of transparency and communications, but it isn't like FVE has drawn down much on the revolver. From the latest audited financials, it looks like they have $10M drawn, and they probably don't even need it as they have enough cash on hand to easily pay it off. So has anything materially changed that increases the risk of holding FVE stock?

    It's frustrating that there is no accountability among mgmt and the Board and I am definitely not happy with the lack of shareholder friendliness of this company.

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