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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

buyacramer 26 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Feb 10, 2011
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  • JBLU's capacity ramp and super aggressive pricing ($60 one way trips) is killing the industry, including themselves as oil blasts higher. In an environment of rapidly declining oil prices, this cut throat strategy may work in winning marketshare and eking out a small profit while at it, but when oil rises, it just kills the industry as everybody is forced to match those $60 trips. 2015 was an anomaly year of plunging oil, and the aftermath of the capacity increases from 2015 environment will bring pain in 2016.

  • buyacramer buyacramer Mar 23, 2016 9:02 AM Flag

    so what is pressuring liquidity now?

  • Given all these factors, why would SUNE have liquidity problems? They sold their Japanese assets, raised liquidity in January, and the biggest cash event with VSLR is off the table. Don't they now have excess cash?

  • SUNE and Terp up and VSLR getting crushed.... Outcome is pretty clear, the loser is VSLR and SUNE gets off the hook. SUNE to be at $5 soon. May be able to buy VSLR on the cheap when VSLR plunges... Sun coming through for SUNE and TERP, clouds covering VSLR...

  • buyacramer buyacramer Mar 8, 2016 1:57 PM Flag

    Brilliant idea! Botch the VSLR and leave them hanging so that VSLR are the ones to go into bankruptcy. Then come in an buy up the assets for a fraction of what it would have cost. SUNE are the smartest guys in the room..

  • buyacramer buyacramer Mar 8, 2016 12:56 PM Flag

    SUNE sold off many of their assets in recent months, did a capital raise, so without a deal to get done, they should be flush with cash. Further, this overhand should clear up on SUNE and the stock appreciation alone could be billions. So over time, SUNE is super strong, they just may not be able to pay right up front.

  • Market is saying this is great so party hard for SUNE, TERP, but VSLR just got screwed and falls off a cliff. So SUNE and company gets off this easy and it just sucks for VSLR shareholders?

  • Reply to

    Puzzled

    by bill.hansen2727 Feb 26, 2016 12:07 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Feb 26, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    Not much volume, so just lack of interest generally. BAML came out and reiterated $48 price target ,so plenty of upside. Sector also ran a lot lately and probably just taking a breather before moving up again. Nothing concerning, just lack of interest...

  • Analysts were asking about the debt repayment coming due and they kept dodging it and saying they will address it when that time comes???

  • Reply to

    why the low projection?

    by domahman Feb 22, 2016 8:52 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Feb 22, 2016 9:20 PM Flag

    Exactly, consumer are probably waiting for the two new products (Alta and Blaze) and not pull the trigger now. Company is in a refresh cycle, so a slowdown right before new products are launched isnt that surprising.

  • Full year guidance is in line with analysts, despite lower Q1 vs analysts estimates. Fitbit is coming out with two new products at the end of Q1, so lighter sales in Q1 shouldnt be a huge surprise. Who would be buying old models now when you can get the new Alta or Blaze in March/April. So given there is a reason for Q1 softness and still the company is guiding toward $2.4-$2.5B in revs, in line with analysts, this is by no means a shortfall, simply a product refresh cycle. With $700M in cash on the books and no debt and great products coming to market, there is no reason that this stock should crash like things are heading south.

  • Many analysts have said the selloff is an over reaction. However, their estimates have come down for future EPS and price targets by 30+%. JPM price target went from $320 down to $186. Cowen lowered PT from $272 to $140. So given the magnitude of lowered EPS and price targets, how is a 50% selloff way oversold??? Great hearing analysts say how overdone the selling has been, but at the same time lower their own price targets by a similar %.

  • LNKD issues 3-5% extra stock every year to doll out to employees. They already pay their employees really well, and with these types of employee grants every year, it is extremely costly and dillutive to shareholders. You factor these excessive grants to employees, the company looks pricey and extremely unfriendly to shareholders.

  • Given fed stress tests and high capital requirements, C has been building capital capital by not paying out earnings in the form of a dividend or doing stock buy backs. As such, C balance sheet is now flush with capital from retaining multiple years of strong earnings. Sell off to multiyear lows make no sense as the company 's balance sheet is strongest now than in recent history.

  • What can be better as an investment in turbulent times than prime US real estate? No global exposure, currency risk, etc. Great assets this company owns, poor execution...

  • As is usual with new mgmt., set the bar low to show improvement or knock it out of the park.

  • Reply to

    Why not convert to apartments?

    by buyacramer Feb 9, 2016 12:16 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Feb 9, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    The industry just seems to be a horrible industry, despite all the talk about aging demographics yadda yadda. Look at the publicly traded senior living companies and you will see none of them get a good valuation, profitability is low, and to make matters worst, there appears to be additional senior living facilities being built, that is further pushing down occupancy rates. Not sure why this industry is attracting investment for more facilities, but it isn't apparent to me this industry is worth the investment. Apartment companies like AvalonBay have been extremely profitable with close to full vacancy. Why go through all the hassel with providing senior services anyways? Healthcare worker costs are very high, which forces prices to be high like you said. At least in the DC metro area, the Brookdale facilities are located in many prime real estate areas, and could easily get full occupancy and high rents by converting to apartments. BKD has some great assets, it is s shame they can't do more with it.

  • Some of these properties are in highly desirable metro areas or just on the outskirts. Apartment rents are at all time highs and here seems to be not enough supply. Why are businesses in the senior housing business anyways, when it is more profitable and less complex to just run a passive apartment complex like Avolon Bay communities. Overall though, BKD has some nice assets worth twice the price the stock is trading for. I do hope the big buyers today, and there were big buyers who were buying late morning, are activists looking to unlock this value and shake up management. BKD has great potential and the right team can unleash it.

  • buyacramer by buyacramer Feb 9, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    Agree with folks who are frustrated with management, and as the stock goes into freefall, that means things can only get better with activist investors circling this thing as we all know, the value of the real estate alone is worth almost twice the stock price.

    Without a shakeup, the best thing for management is to sell down properties that are non-core, outside their focus area, and use cash from operations and real estate sales to pay down debt and buyback stock. With the stock at this price, there is no better investment than buying back own stock, so additional acquisitions/new builds should be off the table until the stock price recovers to the extent that using cash to buyback, no longer is more accretive than building or buying additional facilities. Absent some big structural change to unlock value, building the stock back with status quo internal operations will take time.

  • Reply to

    Smith is worthless

    by reveered Feb 9, 2016 1:41 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Feb 9, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    Fair, and the stock is reflecting that.. Maybe given this low price, an activist investor will take a position and get rid of existing management and unlock value. The lower the stock, the more management has got to be worried about getting canned.

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