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Zynga, Inc. Message Board

buyacramer 897 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 3:32 PM Member since: Feb 10, 2011
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  • What's up with this POS? Whole sector is up like 3-4%, but LOCO down 3%. Is this company really the worst in the sector and is the COSIs or a Quiznos??? Thank God the market is up like 600pts, otherwise, LOCO would probably have fallen 20%. Clearly market sees their fast casual concept as one of the failing fast concepts.

    I guess I should have visited a store to see the emptiness before I bought this thing... Damn Jeffries, they just have buy ratings on everything...

  • buyacramer buyacramer Aug 24, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    BX thrives on times like this and reloads for the next up cycle...

  • Aren't these the times PE load up on fire sales? Yes, they can't exit in these environments, but last quarter's call seem to indicate lots of "dry powder" and analysts worried about whether they can even deploy it all. Well, in this global carnage, doubt BX will have trouble finding things to buy at bargain prices to exit when things turn in a year or two. Gotta be in PE for the long run.

  • buyacramer buyacramer Aug 20, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    The scary thing is the S&P is flat to down 1% or so this year and CG is down like 20+%. Hard to imagine if the S&P would to see a correction....

  • buyacramer buyacramer Aug 20, 2015 6:52 AM Flag

    Reading CG last earnings transcript, management said they have been very slow to deploy capital this year because they saw valuations as being too high, but at the same time, they were raising record cash from investors, so this is opportunity for them to finally pick up stuff on the pullback for the next up cycle, which may be a few years out.

    As for oil, less than a tenth of their portfolio is exposed to it, but it still hurts. The positive is that CG did do a bunch of exits in the first half when markets were strong, which is why they were also able to pay such a large dividend.

  • Looks like global markets have sold off lately and will continue. CG is flush with dry power, so why the massive selloff in CG and PE in general? This should be an opportunity as valuations come in...

  • Reply to

    oversold?

    by buyacramer Aug 19, 2015 2:45 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Aug 19, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Did I mention LOCO is a domestic play, immune to the currency commodity collapse in the world? Further, oil prices at decade lows can only benefit LOCO...

  • buyacramer by buyacramer Aug 19, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    The whole sector is pretty much up today. LOCO down 5% is rough, especially given that their valuation now is pretty cheap for a company expected to earn close to $1/sh next year and expanding from a regional chain to national chain. Given the company is solidly profitable and has great growth ahead, why would it continue to sell off at these levels?

  • Interesting that the company filed to sell shares at these low prices. You would think they would want to do so when the stock price is on an uptrend.

    Most of the shares coming from insiders, so why not just put the company up for sale? Company is selling for low multiples and if insiders want to exit, just sell to a KND.

  • Zoos, aquariums, and especially the biggest evil of them all Seaworld should shut down! How would you like to be living your life in a cage!?!?

  • Reply to

    What's up with the rout in APO?

    by buyacramer Jun 10, 2015 6:27 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Jun 10, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Mixed bag when it comes to analysts' expectations. Most recently, Piper Jaffray's initiated (06/02/15) APO with a $33PT. Morningstar, which I think has the least conflicts of interests, has a $42 PT but is clearly wrong. CS has a $23PT, Citi $25PT, Bofa $27PT.

  • Reply to

    What's up with the rout in APO?

    by buyacramer Jun 10, 2015 6:27 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Jun 10, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    looks like a buy opportunity that will pay you close to 10% dividend to wait it out. It seems that different PE firms come in and out of favor, maybe based on if they bought some good firms or not in their portfolio. Tides shift, so looks like a good buy opportunity, unless I'm missing some big risk at APO.

  • Reply to

    What's up with the rout in APO?

    by buyacramer Jun 10, 2015 6:27 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Jun 10, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Most PEs are just off highs for the year, APO is close to lows year to date. I thought rising rates were good for companies like APO, which had a huge credit division. Similar to how banks benefit from rising rates? Lawsuit is related to the price they offered for a company, correct? That isn't a damaging lawsuit.

    Last year Carlyle was hated and had a bad year. I guess this year APO is going to be in the penalty box.

  • Anyone know why APO dropped so much in last couple of days on no news and flat overall stock market? Doesn't APO's massive credit division benefit in a rising rate environment? Rates based on treasury yields are at year highs so why is APO trending toward year low?

    Looks like some small insider buying activity recently. Is there something we should be worried about with the declines or is this just a great buying opportunity going into a rising rate environment?

  • FVE management was recently given over 100K shares. 2014 was a disaster year full of distractions and catching up on reporting. They probably also flushed every possible bad news out so that they can start with a clean slate in 2015. As the tax loss selling comes to an end so that everybody who wants to get out is out, 2015 should be set up a a good year for the company to start showing positive surprises. Remember FVE is a US only firm with no exposure to foreign currency or global slowdown risks. Lower energy and a super strong US economy bodes well for FVE and the stock also shields you from global surprises. Also, the winter so far has been extremely mild, which also bodes well for occupancy rates.

  • CG has fallen off a cliff this year by 25% because of its exposure to energy. However, I think they have been overly punished for exposure to energy. Markets are at all time highs, so even if CG's energy portfolio is down 30-40%, the remaining 90% of Carlyle is probably up 10% or so given markets are up over 10%. On net, Carlyle's portfolio is up for 2014, so why a 25% selloff? January typically is very strong for PE as that is when they give their biggest dividend. CG could see a nice start of 2015 year rally. Selloff makes no sense to me. Anybody else have thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • FVE is down in 2014, but what really has changed in the business? The restatement issue was a debacle, but the company continued to acquire new properties in 2015, revenue likely grew as we will soon find out when they report, and they will get this restatement behind them, positioning them well for positive catalysts that should lift the stock in 2015.

    FVE is dirt cheap at these levels and is one of the few stocks still on sale in this all time high market. As the world continues to do QE and struggle for growth, where better to invest than right here in the US in one of the largest senior living operators? You don't have to worry about strong dollar hurting your international sales #s, which will be a problem for multinationals in 2015. The US economy is booming, jobs are plentiful, asset prices are high, and American seniors are richer than probably anytime in recent history. America is also aging. Add to all that, 30-40% decline in energy prices (will be lowest heating costs for FVE in years), and you really have all the stars aligning for FVE and the sector as a whole. Listen to any anayalst on CNBC and you will hear them caution investors about multinational stocks in 2015 because of the strong dollar. Stocks like FVE, that are 100% US, in a great sector, and still trading at low valuations in this euphoric market are the place to put your money in 2015.

    Sure FVE has some issues with governance, but that is already fully baked into the stock. 2014 was the dead year for FVE, but 2015 will be when they get their act together and come alive again.

  • ANW starting to take advantage of the fire sale from OW Bunker Bankruptcy. They just won auction for their US fuel assets. More to come. ANW should be at least flat for the year. No reason their stock is down 10%.

  • Looks like aircraft leasing company turned down a buyout offer from China Investment Corp and instead has decided to go public. Maybe CIC should look at FLY, which is definitely the cheapest in the space. Abu Dhabi fund has investments in Aercap, Japanese investment fund has a stake in Ayrcastle. If FLY were to attract a major soverign equity fund, that could help the steep discount the stock is trading at.

  • Quote from ANW earnings report. The best is yet to come anw we should see the operating leverage of ANW translate to significant earnings growth in 2015. Their building program is done and they have little, if any capex commitments. Company is going to be flush with cash for dividends, buy backs, and be positioned well to potentially buy distressed assets from some of their competitors that aren't doing well. Does this look like a stock that should be down this year when the market is up over 10%? I think we definitely will have a run into year end.

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