I think they own over 30 million shares today so if they sell 10 million, they still have 20 million shares riding on Noranda doing well. Just like they pumped up the price recently to get rid of 10 million shares, they will do it again to unload the remaining 20 million. Private equity rarely loses money. They will bail their remaining 20 million shares at a higher price.
why does it matter if they profited or not if they sell at current prices? Whether or not they made a profit shouldnt impact the price of the shares going forward and the outlook of the business. I think the key is Noranda isnt issuing additional shares on the market at bargain basement prices. If a shareholder like you or me decide we want to go sell our shares at a low price to someone else, really doesnt impact the long term share price.
NOR isnt issuing new shares I dont think. Apollo is selling some of their existing stake. If it was a new share issuance at a 30% lower stock price, that would suck for shareholders and be highly dilutive, but this situation is apollo unloading their stake at a steep discount to current price.
If the sale does not indicate an impairment to NOR's business and it isnt dilutive to shareholders, stock should bounce back pretty quickly after the 10M shares are absorbed.
deal is not dilutive which is good. If Apollo wants to sell at $3.50 a share, it will temporary cause shares to dip, but since it isnt dilutive (not issuing new shares at a low price), doing this offering at a bargain basement price only hurts Apollo. Still not happy though that 20-30% of the value of NOR is going to be wiped out at least for the near term as Apollo unloads at all cost.
What fund manager would buy new shares in an equity issuance with PBR's track record? Every issuance has burned investors. I highly doubt there would be takers of additional shares at a reasonable price. They are better off issuing debt.
Why trade publicly and have to do SEC filings and all that. Just nationalize and save a lot of headache, administrative work, and investors complaining. No reason at all to trade publicly.
If PBR is set up for political purposes to subsidize and bring Brazilians really cheap oil prices to garner support for the government, then delist PBR and operate it as not for profit. Companies like this seriously do not deserve to be listed on exchanges to scam shareholder $ to subsidize oil prices for Brazilians.
I'm disappointed with CG management and it really shows in their relative performance compared to other PE firms. Now that insiders are bailing, I'm considering bailing myself and buying Blackstone or KKR instead. It has been a frustrating hold and I definitely made the mistake of choosing CG over other PE alternatives.
Bg mistake not to go with Blackstone instead of CG. Blackstone rallied from the low teens to pretty much now exceeding CG's price in the past yr or two. CG is definitely by far the worst performing PE. KKR, Apollo, BX, all have done much better.
And what does management do, they unload their shares by the hundreds of millions. Why should anyone buy CG when they could buy other PEs that take care of their shareholders?
It does increasingly look like that is the path headed as government forces PBR to sell gasoline below cost. PBR is not run like an independent public company for the benefit of shareholders. It serves national interests. Hopefully the government gives shareholders $12/sh to nationalize just for goodwill and to prevent loss of foreign capital.
Doesn't pbr import oil at times and sell for below cost in Brazil because of fixed prices by the government? Rising oil prices may hurt pbr.
It is good that they indicated volumes have picked up nicely in Q1 and is trending above historical levels so far and they dont feel it is just a blip from Chinese New Year shipping.
All depends on CC outlook tomorrow. It was a pretty flat quarter. I am a bit disappointed by ANW's inability to grow volume and flex their operating leverage. That is where the real value creation is at. They have a lot of underutilized ships and given better prospects for the shipping industry, I'd hope to have seen volumes grow as they take on more customers and at the same time look forward to their US operations providing additional growth.
Key area to focus on for the call tomorrow is volume and when do they see significant volume growth occuring.
US airlines are at like 10 year highs as global and domestic economy improves and business and leisure travel picks up. Hard to believe companies like ZNH and CEA are falling close to multi-year lows. Makes no sense why airlines are worth so much in the US, but in China, airlines are WORTHLESS.
ESC has traded higher into the $30s on its own merit just last year. And, ESC did a secondary offering last yr at about BKDs offer price. On ESC's own merit the company was trading higher without any fundamental change in ESCs business. ESC traded in the low 20s because the space was neglected and BKD is taking advantage of the current lack of interest by investors in the space and picking up ESC on the cheap.
Not sure why investors would agree to $28-29 range, which is where it traded for just months ago. BKD gets a great real estate portfolio and lots on synergies so why won't ESC ask for a premium over where it just traded for months ago?
Bkd is clearly getting a steal here. Esc has a great portfolio of real estate that they could spin off into a REIT. Further, the offer price isn't even at ESC's 52 wk high. The individual firm itself sold for close to $31 and not much has changed. A buyout should have at least been at 52 wk high. The current offer is pretty much the secondary price ESC sold last yr. those shareholders who bought essentially got no return for holding.