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Zynga, Inc. Message Board

buyacramer 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 31, 2014 1:19 PM Member since: Feb 10, 2011
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  • Reply to

    honda ridgeline pending acquisition

    by perfect_market Nov 3, 2014 4:01 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 4, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Stop buying imports when you can buy a quality GMC truck made in the USA. Why send profits to Japan when you can help keep it right here in the US and where it will end up benefiting Americans? Seriously, the quality issues of American made are the thing of the past. It is people like you who wont give American products a chance, which is why although GM and Ford make excellent cars these days, they still cant seem to break from their past. People like you are giving the auto industry to the Japanese and Germans.

  • They've been silent for a while and hopefully the year end tax loss selling is winding down. Could management give shareholders a Christmas gift and report financials showing metrics are all trending in the right direction and give FVE stock a boost into the new year? Even for employee morale you would think you dont want the stock ending towards lows for the year as the rest of Wall Street celebrates all time highs.

  • Reply to

    Returning investor - question

    by met75 Nov 13, 2014 3:37 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 13, 2014 10:46 PM Flag

    Interesting point. But, I still don't fully understand this conflict. If BBAM really was just in it to maximize their mgmt fees, then wouldn't it make sense for them influence FLY to shut down the dividend (they've actually been increasing it) and simply get FLY to plow everything into growing the maximum fleet possible so they can charge even more?

    I guess you are saying BBAM charges unreasonably high mgmt fees on FLY, making FLY's profitability suffer compared to peers. If that is the issue, then the case for investor activism or takeover becomes even more compelling as not only do you get FLY at a discount to book, there are also tons of savings to be realized because FLY is way overpaying BBAM on mgmt fees.

  • Looks like aircraft leasing company turned down a buyout offer from China Investment Corp and instead has decided to go public. Maybe CIC should look at FLY, which is definitely the cheapest in the space. Abu Dhabi fund has investments in Aercap, Japanese investment fund has a stake in Ayrcastle. If FLY were to attract a major soverign equity fund, that could help the steep discount the stock is trading at.

  • ANW starting to take advantage of the fire sale from OW Bunker Bankruptcy. They just won auction for their US fuel assets. More to come. ANW should be at least flat for the year. No reason their stock is down 10%.

  • Reply to

    BIOS a Buy and going back to teens...

    by jfrancisofsi Nov 5, 2014 5:34 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 5, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Looks like the PBM business is really suffering. And yes they got hit by a lot of integration related expenses and write downs. Investors probably want to see their significant revenue growth materialize to growing earnings and cashflow before they get interested. They aren't expensive at these levels, but since they maybe a couple of quarters from really seeing revenue growth translate into earnings growth, there isnt a catalyst for investors to buy now. So probably dead money for at least 1 or two more quarters is what I think.

  • Reply to

    BIOS a Buy and going back to teens...

    by jfrancisofsi Nov 5, 2014 5:34 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 5, 2014 9:23 PM Flag

    Very little chance for a dividend in the foreseeable future. They have pretty heavy debt and cash is tight. They talk abut trying to accelerate their receivables (which stands at $170 mil) because that is the only way they can avoid taking on extra debt cash is so tight. Buyout is possible after they clean things up including selling their PBM business, stemming the losses from integration related issues, and start generating earnings and cash flow growth. Unfortunately, looks like they are a couple of quarters away from that inflection point where metrics start pointing up. Revenue growth looks great now, but I don't think investors will have an urge to buy until they start seeing signs revenue growth translates to earnings. This is like the Amazon issue where they keep putting up great sales, but no earnings and amazon now trades at close to 52 week lows.

    Plus, it doesn't make sense for Bios to sell themselves now when all the metrics look so hideous as they won't get a good valuation. Much better to clean things up and then put it on the block when it is nice and shiny. Honestly, I was hoping this quarter would be the inflection but was wrong so need to decide if I take a tax loss now and come back in two quarters or ride it out.

  • Reply to

    Beats by .06

    by beefstu57 Nov 13, 2014 9:58 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 13, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    #s were great, they have strong cashflow as an analyst alluded to. They are only paying out a small fraction of the cash flow in dividends. I think the market and analysts were really hoping they use excess cash to buyback shares as you could tell from the analysts' questions. They responded that they prefer to use the cash for growth initiatives, but I think the issue really is if they bought back shares now, it makes them look bad as they did a secondary last year. All in all though, no fundamental issues with the company, and growth remains strong going forward. It will be a matter of time when they use the excess cash to buyback shares if it gets too low. Maybe management wants extra shares on the market so that funds can buy more shares.

  • Quote from ANW earnings report. The best is yet to come anw we should see the operating leverage of ANW translate to significant earnings growth in 2015. Their building program is done and they have little, if any capex commitments. Company is going to be flush with cash for dividends, buy backs, and be positioned well to potentially buy distressed assets from some of their competitors that aren't doing well. Does this look like a stock that should be down this year when the market is up over 10%? I think we definitely will have a run into year end.

  • Reply to

    Nice upgrade....hope the just a beginning

    by whodontnothat Nov 14, 2014 11:45 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 14, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    And this ML analyst was the most pessimistic of FLY and aircraft lessors in general, so good to see him go from sell to a buy. I still think FLY should be a takeout candidate. The Chinese and their soverign wealth fund are aggressively getting into the aircraft leasing business. They should really take a close look at FLY to accelerate their plans to get into the space. The price is definitely right. If not the Chinese, the bigger lessors should buy FLY as many of them are valued above book value now. So buy FLY at book, and immediately get above book valuation when FLY's assets move on to their portfolio. But until then, 8% dividend yield (that is safe) to wait it out.

  • CG has fallen off a cliff this year by 25% because of its exposure to energy. However, I think they have been overly punished for exposure to energy. Markets are at all time highs, so even if CG's energy portfolio is down 30-40%, the remaining 90% of Carlyle is probably up 10% or so given markets are up over 10%. On net, Carlyle's portfolio is up for 2014, so why a 25% selloff? January typically is very strong for PE as that is when they give their biggest dividend. CG could see a nice start of 2015 year rally. Selloff makes no sense to me. Anybody else have thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • FVE management was recently given over 100K shares. 2014 was a disaster year full of distractions and catching up on reporting. They probably also flushed every possible bad news out so that they can start with a clean slate in 2015. As the tax loss selling comes to an end so that everybody who wants to get out is out, 2015 should be set up a a good year for the company to start showing positive surprises. Remember FVE is a US only firm with no exposure to foreign currency or global slowdown risks. Lower energy and a super strong US economy bodes well for FVE and the stock also shields you from global surprises. Also, the winter so far has been extremely mild, which also bodes well for occupancy rates.

  • So Robbin Hood raid of PBR by Dilma and Team?

  • Reply to

    Tight cash position...

    by buyacramer Nov 11, 2014 8:18 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 11, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Agreed, and with interest expense on a $400-$500M debt balance, the interest expense is going to consume most of that EBITDA. This also means they dont have much room for capital expenditures without tapping more debt or in the worst case doing a dilutive equity raise.

  • Reply to

    Beats by .06

    by beefstu57 Nov 13, 2014 9:58 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Can we bring in Carl Icahn to unlock value here? He is all over high divdend yeilding Transocean, which is now running into serious trouble given oil prices are crashing. Why not focus attention on FLY, which like Transocean has a big dividend, but unlike Transocean, the airline industry is booming because oil is so low and the recovering world economy. FLY is the perfect candidate for Icahn, way undervalued, solid growing company, and the perfect size where he can actually buy enough shares to influence the decision outcomes of the firm.

  • Reply to

    Seems like a no brainer at these levels, no?

    by buyacramer Nov 11, 2014 11:05 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 11, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Well earnings coming out this week and it would be interesting to see if management does a buyback instead of paying increasing dividends. It gets to a point where share buybacks are more accretive than even buying jets, and FLY maybe getting close to that level.

  • Reply to

    Is consolidation the solution?

    by buyacramer Nov 4, 2014 9:06 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 5, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    I own both as well and unfortunately overweighted FLY as it appears to me as FLY is relatively undervalued. Years ago, FLY mgmt seemed to be doing all the right things and the stock performed well compared to peers. After the secondary last year, FLY has just been dead. Im adding more at these levels as it looks even more undervalued now that lessors have regained most of the losses experienced a month or two ago. Seems like FLY is the only one left out of the rally. You think FLY is just temporarily unfavored or are there more fundamental issues with the company that others dont have which will make them sell at a discount for the foreseable future?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    what happens if Petrobras hits a wall?

    by buyacramer Nov 14, 2014 7:57 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 14, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    They have issues with their financials and their auditors wont sign off on their financials because of the fraud taking place. Banks/debt holders are entitled to audited financials or there is a default, in which case, PBR can be forced to pay back loans. The mess at PBR could drastically reduce drilling as funding dries up so the question is can companies like PACD withstand another potential blow from further reduction in drilling?

  • Seems like the smaller air leasing companies are not getting the valuation and the buying scale of larger players like AER and AL. Shouldnt smaller players like AYR and FLY combine? Other than buying scale and expense efficiencies, companies like FLY could probably get valued at above book value (like AER and AL), instead of a discount.

  • Reply to

    Fighting The Tape

    by tthemainman38 Nov 10, 2014 10:53 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Nov 12, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    Definitely moves in the right direction and interesting to note the sales were at above book values. Also, with additional capital from the announced $400 million debt offering coupled with the proceeds from the sales of the 8 757s, it does appear they are getting ready to ramp up new fleet growth.

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