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hhgregg, Inc. Message Board

buyacramer 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 23, 2016 9:02 AM Member since: Feb 10, 2011
  • Reply to

    Do we have an oversuupply problem?

    by buyacramer Feb 8, 2016 10:29 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Feb 9, 2016 7:15 AM Flag

    The one difference I can see is Boeing and Airbus having discipline to reduce deliveries (as recently announced) and therefore helping prevent what happened in shipping and deep water drilling. Oversupply will hurt plane prices and in turn damage the suppliers, so good that we have a duopoly in plane manufacturers.

  • With a potential global slowdown, do you all think we have a lurking oversupply problem? Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this industry is showing signs of weakness however, the selloff makes me draw memories of drybulk shipping and drill ships. When times were good, shippers and drillers would order a never ending supply of ships and drill rigs. Eventually as those backordered ships hit the market, the market became oversupplied and rental rates plunged. Do you think this industry could be facing a similar problem? Why or why not?

  • After today's and the recent fall, FIT no longer priced for perfection. The are trading at like 12-13X earnings and even less when you factor in the cash on their balance sheet (they just added another $100M in Nov secondary).

    So although fears of competition are valid, there still isn't a great alternative to FIT. Look at your collegues, friends and family and you will notice 9 out of 10 who own fitness bands are on FITBITs.Those considering a fitness bands are also talking about fitbits. The space is rapidly growing with no signs of slowing with many companies giving them out as Christmas gifts or part of a fitness plan. Competition will intensify, but fitbit is still the go to solution. Microsoft, LG, Motorola make great phones, but everybody still gravitates toward Apple and Samsung. Fitbit, likewise could hold this lead in the fitness band space, with better software and hardware, for a long time to come. With the rapid growth in this segment just beginning, and real competition probably at least a year or 2 away, the gopro doom and gloom just doesn't fit this scenario.

  • buyacramer buyacramer Feb 8, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    Isnt WAHA Capital, the Saudi fund buying AER? I guess it is also unfortunate that AER did a lot of stock buyback back when the price was a lot higher rather than pay down debt.

    But, if debt is the problem, seems like every financial crisis these lessors get slammed, but business isn't really materially hurt. I remember last crisis (2008-2009), many of these lessors simply bought back their own debt that was trading at like 50 cents on the dollar.

  • Anyone know or have a thought on why AER is getting slammed so much worse than everybody else in the sector. Most other lessors are down -5% why AER down close to 10%. AER more risky?

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