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Quicksilver Resources, AŞ Message Board

buyacramer 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 23, 2015 6:56 AM Member since: Feb 10, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Oversold on every metric...

    by buyacramer Oct 22, 2015 9:21 AM
    buyacramer buyacramer Oct 23, 2015 6:56 AM Flag

    Great idea. The sell off in healthcare recently seems worst that the 2008 crisis. Some of the issues faced by industry is likely to be seasonal and impacted by politics and the repeated bashing of healthcare costs. The sector could be set up for a better rebound than oil as oil may permanently settle in a lower price range due to how much supply there is coming from US so there are oil companies in serious financial distress. More jobs and people with coverage bode well for this sector.

  • Analysts all reduced estimates today. Where it opens today will be at this year PE of ~8, ~7X free cashflow after reduced estimates. So sure it may drop more, but would you buy a business trading at 7x cashflow and a single digit PE in an economy of growing jobs, wages, and increased healthcare coverage?

    Some of the weak admittance this quarter may be an anomaly just as flu season can be worst or better than expected. The industry is now laser focused on the cost side and will likely pull more out of the system. So given where valuations are, any improvement either on the top line or in costs will provide significant upside from these levels.

  • Reply to

    Shelf Filing to sell Shares

    by buyacramer Jul 29, 2015 12:53 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Oct 13, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    There is no market for selling shares at a decent price now and given the selloff and credit deterioration in healthcare stocks, there probably wont be much appetite for potential acquirers to buy GEN. So interesting to see if the company insiders sell shares despite poor market conditions, which would further put downward pressure on the stock.

  • BKD was trading in the high 20s prior to the deal with Emeritus. Emeritus was like $21-22. After riding up to $38s, we are back below the merger price today. This combined company has great assets and tremendous scale after these short term integration hiccups. Surprised the stock trades for less than prior to the merger. But with CFFO expected in the mid to high $2 range, getting to buy BKD at less than 10X cashflow is a steal in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Getting hit as hard as biotech if not worst. I can see biotech selloff given Hilary comments and high valuations, but hospitals are almost the exact opposite, stable, profitable, and selling at great valuations. Any reason why they are trading like biotechs on the downside?

  • Reply to

    market spooked

    by chhegu Sep 24, 2015 2:14 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 25, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Definitely a good time to be adding. US job growth strong, more insured patients from new jobs generated and Obamacare, aging population, trading way off the highs and at multiples lower than the general market, and no international exposure. Do these guys also own their real estate? What is there not to like?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    market spooked

    by chhegu Sep 24, 2015 2:14 PM
    buyacramer buyacramer Sep 24, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    I'm scratching my head... Yes there are global growth issues and commodities and currency prices collapsing outside the US, but US based healthcare in a strong US economy should be as insulated as you can get from global turmoil. Also, CYH is already 30% off highs and in bear territory. Really surprised by another big selloff today.

    Unless there are regulatory/Obamacare headwinds, I don't see why healthcare is getting hit so hard today when the market is down like half a percent.

    Even if markets are spooked, US beaten down healthcare stocks arent the risky stocks you should get rid of if you are fearing problems abroad. Anyone have a reason for why healthcare got hit much harder than other sectors today?

  • buyacramer buyacramer Sep 24, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    A $60 offer looks awfully good here.... Interesting to see healthcare stocks like THC CYH get destroyed worst than companies like Caterpiller. World slowdown isnt hurting acute hospitals in the US is it? So why the huge selloff in the sector? I came to this sector for cover from the global mess, but I guess i was wrong...


  • Seems like CPA is interesting at these levels. With the lowest debt ratios among the Latin American carriers, strong earnings and dividend and low oil prices, seems like CPA could be a relatively safer bet than others in the region. The dividend yield is also really high now, so if things worsen from a macro perspective, they could reduce the dividend and not be at risk of financial troubles.

  • Perfect time to do so given Aluminum is at decade lows...

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