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Iteris, Inc. Message Board

buyandwin 135 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 11, 2014 3:11 PM Member since: Jul 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 11, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    Hi Donedealer:

    Your last sentence says it all

    ------ So far the market does not appear to be overly optimistic. -----

    And that's the opportunity.

    If the market was overly optimistic, the price would be $20 or $25 or $30 a share and that opportunity would be gone. To make money in the market, you have to see opportunity before others see it. and hold on tight without wavering because others don't see it or know what they are looking for or where to look.

    Patience- You just have to wait for the market to recognize what you already did.

    good luck
    b&w

  • ---who were trying to buy on the dips. Mr Market sometimes has a mind of its own.

    b&w

  • buyandwin buyandwin Aug 9, 2014 10:50 PM Flag

    Mhk:
    for someone that claims they are not savvy, you sure are doing a lot of sophisticated things and making a lot of projections about how much they will be going up in the next year. Re-read my post I didn't say $1 annual dividend. I "ESTIMATED" $1 to $2 and I said THAT I WOULD BE HAPPY IF IT WAS $1.00 per year (Obviously you would'n't be satisfied with $1.00)

    You said your retirement is 5-6 years away. How do you know how much money you will need in retirement 6 years down the road? Do you know how much money you spent last year? Do you expect it to be less, the same or more in retirement 6 years from now?
    Here is a statistic that might be a wake up call for you. My wife and I are retired 11 years and for every $1 we spent in 2003, we spent $2.29 in 2013. I don't know what that inflation figure is, but I'm sure someone out there can figure it out.
    What will it cost you in 6 years from now, and going ahead 11 years after that I'll let you think about that--- because I don't know, and either do you.

    I will tell you that if you are serious about retirement you better start building up a portfolio that will throw off more real income than you are spending now, and you will be spending more in retirement than before retirement.. To add insult to injury--if you are successful in your planning, you will find a major cost you will have will be Federal Taxes (And State taxes if you live in a state with an income tax)

    If you aren't successful in your planning, you and your wife will not be happy campers.
    good luck
    b&w

  • buyandwin buyandwin Aug 9, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    Bg4;
    There are always many sides to every story. You must evaluate where you personally are now and what you need and what you are looking for from this investment, and what you need for the future. And then judge if your goals can be met by what is happening here.

    Other people may have different goals and desires and needs from this investment, and there is a constant tug of war from those with different goals.

    People posting negatives are posting their own personal viewpoints and are competing to buy cheaper shares from you or anyone else that will listen to them and help them achieve their goals. that might not be your goals.

    good luck
    b&w

  • buyandwin buyandwin Aug 9, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    Youcan:
    Everybody wants everybody else to work for them for less. Every employee wants to get paid more. from their employer. that is a basic reality everywhere in the market place. If you as a stockholder are not happy then you have the opportunity to sell your position and take your money and pay the IRS a portion and invest the balance elsewhere. If enough people do that and the price goes down to $5.00 maybe management will take notice and change their ways-----------or take the company private and keep all the money for themselves.

    Thats the way the world works.
    b&w

  • buyandwin buyandwin Aug 9, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Jeffy:
    ----- I was looking for what to do with my shares.------- WHYYYYYYYYY?
    Being patient here with ACAS will probably keep you from making a mistake somewhere else. Since the meltdown in 2008-9 the stock has had a terrific run and to get back to pre-crash levels ACAS still has to triple to get to previous levels. Since most of us here currently, own many more shares that were bought at much lower levels due to the melt down than they owned before, they are probably sitting with outsize gains currently, and are getting antsy. Actually they should think about the potential gain going forward when managements plans become operational. I don't see why the value of ACAS in their future reorganization status couldn't double or triple with dividends approaching $1 or $2
    Currently ACAS is selling at a 33% discount to NAV and climbing. The price that ACAS is trading at is a price to buy, not a price to sell. My wife and I live off of our portfolio income. A $1.00 a share dividend would increase my annual portfolio income about 25%
    Of course you have to make your decision. My decision is to hold.

    good luck
    b&w

  • Reply to

    Working It's Way Back Up

    by buyandwin Aug 8, 2014 2:09 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 9, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    H8ten:

    I agree with most of what you said. Buying on the bad news is important for portfolio growth. However IMHO selling on the good news (With no other reason to sell) is counterproductive to portfolio growth. It leads to 1) unnecessary transaction costs 2)Unnecessary current taxes 3) Loss of future mostly tax deferred income 4) Inability to repurchase same potential income due to using after tax proceeds.5)Increases the possibility of buying something else that is not as tax efficient and leaving VNR to proceed upward without you.

    good luck
    b&w

  • Reply to

    Working It's Way Back Up

    by buyandwin Aug 8, 2014 2:09 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 8, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    i was fortunate to buy some more VNR on Wednesday. I expect to receive at least $0.21 per month per unit every month and will drip that money into additional units every month. And to add icing to the cake, last year the dripped distributions were 97% tax deferred. IMHO, a recipe for growth.
    b&w

  • Slowly working it's way back up to $30. Super buy in the $28-$29-$30 levels for those paying attention with the long term view in mind

    b&w

  • Reply to

    what is book value of PSEC??

    by treeman0211 Aug 8, 2014 11:02 AM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 8, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Treeman:
    I don't understand. First you say you don't know when to add-- You get some serious responses now you are an expert. Where did you pick the $10.60 number from? Then you say maybe, maybe not won't go broke either way. If you don't care, why don't you just buy at the market now and stop wasting everyone's time.

    b&w

  • Reply to

    what is book value of PSEC??

    by treeman0211 Aug 8, 2014 11:02 AM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 8, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Treeman:
    If you bought at $11 to lower your average cost--That means your average cost is currently still above $11. Buying at current levels (about $10.65) will further lower your average cost per share.

    good luck
    b&w

  • buyandwin buyandwin Aug 7, 2014 9:41 PM Flag

    I just listened to the CC.

    I liked the part that there will be no increase in capex for 2014-15 because the 7 newly announced plants were already figured in the previous announced Capex figures.
    Another interesting thing was the approximate $1 B already raised by the ATM fundings that were already completed. and their over $1 B liquidity they currently have.
    Frank Semple said they will complete 5 of the current 19 ongoing projects in 2014 and the rest in 2015. DCF will be ramping up as the utilization rate reaches over 80% closer to 12+ months, than the outside 18 Months we were figuring.

    Frank also indicated there are other projects that have not been announced yet for various reasons. Also a lot more growth potentially available to them
    He also spoke about the importance of the distribution growth going forward . There is no doubt in my mind, that the ramping up increasing distributions he has spoken about previously, are important to him-- VERY IMPORTANT.

    b&w

  • buyandwin by buyandwin Aug 6, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    Snippets;
    DCF coverage 1.04. Also received investment grade status on 1.3 B in debt More growth ahead.
    b&w

  • buyandwin by buyandwin Aug 6, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    NAV up to $20.12

    b&w

  • Judge Learned Hand was a well respected long time serving judge on the court of appeals. He was well known for his opinions on taxation.
    He is probably most famous for the following opinion---

    "Anyone may arrange his affairs so that his taxes shall be as low as
    possible; he is not bound to choose that pattern which best pays the
    treasury. There is not even a patriotic duty to increase one's taxes.
    Over and over again the Courts have said that there is nothing sinister
    in so arranging affairs as to keep taxes as low as possible. Everyone
    does it, rich and poor alike and all do right, for nobody owes any
    public duty to pay more than the law demands."
    ------------

    b&w

  • Reply to

    Picked Up Some More This AM

    by buyandwin Aug 4, 2014 1:02 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 6, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Aball:
    Lower prices mean more shares on the drip each month, and the opportunity to buy more income for the same money on the dip, since I'm not planning to sell and I am buying, i'm more interested in stable prices that will allow me to buy more income for the same "per dollar" value.

    good luck
    b&w

  • Reply to

    Picked Up Some More This AM

    by buyandwin Aug 4, 2014 1:02 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 6, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Hi Dvrste:
    You sound like someone that is either near retirement, or in retirement, like I have been for the last 11 years.
    Growth of capital is fine, but I am more interested in growth of dividends and distributions at this stage of the game. I've been living off the market and SS the past 11 years. My market income has increased to a point where it is more than double our expenses. These expenses by the way have increased from every $1 we spent in 2003 we spent $2.29 in 2013. The extra income is invested in additional income securities. If the market corrects prices will go down and the income will increase because you can buy more securities for more income at a lower price.

    Disadvantages to this scenario--The value of your portfolio .will drop and you will lose bragging rights at cocktail parties. Taxes are a major growing expense for me If portfolio prices increase, I have to take a larger RMD from my IRA's which continue to boost my annual tax bill

    From my standpoint---I'm not interested in selling any securities--SO WHY DO I CARE WHAT PRICE IT'S SELLING AT? I am only interested in the income I derive from those securities.

    Crazy as it might sound-Sometimes less is better.
    b&w

  • Reply to

    bottom?

    by lessbs Aug 5, 2014 12:46 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 5, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Less:
    Nothing in the CC leads me to believe there is a canceling of the distributions on the horizon. Distributions will continue at this level with increases coming when they reach 1.0 coverage around the end of the year when they would increase the distributions.
    Please explain what you mean by the deep price drop in late July-early August had to be the result of insider info.

    b&w

  • Reply to

    Blamed it on NGL's in the call.

    by coochy.cooty Aug 5, 2014 11:24 AM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 5, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    Bigbear:
    For those investors that are not interested in selling in the near future It appears this is an opportunity to accumulate more reasonably priced shares for the next few months for those dripping the monthly distributions. At this point I don't see any permanent damage to VNR. Just a bump in the road to be navigated around by management and an opportunity to add to one's position at temporarily advantageous price levels.
    A year from now we probably won't remember why VNR's price was so low to allow us to bulk up our unit count

    b&w

  • Reply to

    Picked Up Some More This AM

    by buyandwin Aug 4, 2014 1:02 PM
    buyandwin buyandwin Aug 4, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    Dvrste:
    I started buying DNP on Feb 13 2014 and have dripped all divvies and bought a number of times on dips since then The divvies get discounted down to NAV or 5%. it's interesting- You said you are down about 3% on DNP. I just checked my portfolio and I am up 3% and I will receive another chunk of discounted shares on August 12 or 13 (It takes 1 to 3 business days for the discounted dripped shares to hit my account from DNP. Since they will arrive at the NAV price as of the close of Friday August 8 it will further increase my gain to market value.

    My Average cost for DNP is$9.747588 per share and based on today's closing price of $10.05 my current gain is 3.00907%. And all DNP shares are held in IRA's and ROTH's to defer taxes as long as possible.

    The history of DNP is a continuous uninterrupted 27 years of regular monthly dividends. Through thick and thin they have paid and paid. and paid. they are good at what they do and that is to pay month after month.

    I backtested the figures from what is available and if you bought 100 shares at $10 and nothing more upon the funds inception in March 1987 and you reinvested all the distributions you would have about 1063 shares after the July 2014 payment at about the same $10 for a total of $10,630. Any additional purchases on dips over all those years would have given the buyer many , many more shares than the 1063.

    The beauty in my opinion is the quiet growth without excitement and if the price dips you get more shares dripped to you each month and you compound the growth even faster.

    A young person today that finds this fund and uses it for a ROTH or IRA needs nothing else. Remember this fund is mostly invested in UTILITIES .

    The big problem is THAT PERSON NEEDS PATIENCE. Thats something most people don't have.
    Even you said "You are rethinking your investment." What did you think you were buying?
    Think it through my friend.
    Good luck
    b&w.

ITI
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