They finally get what they want, they destroy the banks.....then all goes back to radical left socialism and then Greece will stop all payments. Europe will have nothing. Shareholders will be wiped out. Greece will go back to Africa.
It's funny if it wasn't so funny. But it's almost as if this extended uncertainty over the release of the stress tests is killing the banks. The recession was in 2008 and banks are slowly recovering but these Tier 1 requirements can easily put them in a downward trend again. What if Troika believes that 10 bn is a more accurate figure? Banks or no longer ran by businessmen, but by bureacrats and technocrats.
When are they going to release these results, who is served by postponing it for so long? I don't feel that these overpaid civil servants have any sense of urgency in this matter.
What is clear is this huge volatility ahead (either longs or shorts will be completely slaughtered after test results).
In the 9m reports the Tier 1 (9.4%) is improving due to Net profit contribution, more deposits let NPL etc. Asset sales will also help. But the real impact might be the devaluation of the Turkish Lira (if they left it unhedged).
Is there any good information anywhere OR opinions on the likelihood that NBG will need to raise capital to enhance Tier 1?
Obviously if no new capital is needed, then this stock will rally back to 6.
Can anyone comment as to buying NBG versus buying the prefs? There is no more dividend on the prefs, so the only advantage seems the subordination..
Anyone here owns prefs?
why not just sell the puts with strike 4.50? You may as well get paid while you wait.
1) Stress Test Announcement ECB
2) Bank distress in China on the back of higher than expected write offs (Greece is seen as an emerging market and NBG is a bank)
3) Article about high book value valuation in Seeking Alpha
1) Stress test will actually help NBG because NBG will be validated by the ECB
2) Banks in China are finally facing up to reality and this has nothing to do with NBG
3) Book Valuation is not realistic because of the many factors that influence bookvalue.
Greece will remain on the path of recovery and NBG is a leveraged play on the Greek economy, with Turkey as a bonus.
My price target is 24, but in between sickening volatility.
the calls are insanely cheap in terms of the implied volatility. It's a great deal. If you want to finance them sell puts at strike 4.5 because puts are far more expensive than the calls. good luck
well if that happens all longs here with more than 20 000 shares would become a millionaires ..... and deserved
So it's likely that NBG will pass the stress test with their Tier 1 Capital. So that begs the question that if they do, how high will NBG go? Low double digits?
good probability that you are right, the momentum is up, not down. the rest is volatility.