I am 100% right. This is how it is done. The black scholes model values the call options with a 5 year term ENORMOUSLY based on volatility of stock and maturity date. The options are worth weigh more than the stock - THAT IS WHY the institutions took the deal. They are looking to sell their entire positions at break even or above and then have the remaining 20M shares ready to be issued if the price flys.
Firefighter - stick to fire fighting.....
P/S is wayyyyy different than P/E!
If QoQ growth is 80% then of course id change my valuation lmao... Isnt that the point? To value company based on known information + layering in assumptions?
I mean I am only using 20% because that is what they did compared to last quarter. As of now it is the most accurate assumption. It seems that you DO have an understanding that with 20% QoQ growth the PPS isn't going to increase much. Maybe $0.35 in 1 year if the P/S ratio is the same as it is today.
You can see why I have sold all of my trading shares.
At $0.50 (LOL) a year from now the stock would be trading at a P/S ratio of 43 to 1!!! Do you understand this? Does anyone? That is incredible. This is not a price to earnings ratio - this is a price to sales ratio. 43 to 1 is ridiculous. AND that is assuming they grow revenue 20% per quarter.
Has reality set in yet for anyone? Apparently the market agrees with me (once again).... If anyone has any logical and educated questions I would be more than happy to explain this valuation.
The company is no where near being valued on a discounted cash flow basis.
Right now this is the simple model I have been using using a 1 year foward valuation from today:
QoQ Revenue Growth Rate 20%
Base Revenue as of 6/30/2014 663,000
Share Count as of 6/30/2014 311,669,000
Shares diluted per week 1,163,061
Price as of 6/30/2014 0.26
Current P/S Ratio 30.6
3 Months 795,600
6 Months 954,720
9 Months 1,145,664
12 Months 1,374,797
Common Stock Outstanding 372,148,171
P/S Ratio 22.656
P/S Ratio 30.498
P/S Ratio 43.569
P/S Ratio 87.138
So what do you guys think now since sales are 60% of what you projected them to be? (IE: 1,000K vs 663K)
The stock will fall back down to $0.25 for a few reasons, the most obvious being that institutional owners with avg price of $0.25 will sell this down to take some off the table (remember they have 20M in options if this REALLY takes off).
I think we will definetly see a little bump for a bit but this will settle back down. Again - this is not HUGE news this evening. Sales grew at a lesser rate than previous quarters, no clinical data still, etc. The news was not bad at all by any means. It is just not enough to send this to a different price level.
Also - just to note another thing. Price to sales ratio is around 34. So for those of you that think this stock is cheap think again. This is not a P/E ratio LOL. ITs a P/S ratio.
Yes biotechs have crazy ones - however - when they get crazy that means the good stuff is being priced in ALREADY!
Angela - I am going to disagree with you (believe it or not).
The quarter was OK for Cytosorb sales. 20% growth QoQ is less than it has been but it is still solid growth on a QoQ basis. That is over 100% growth (compounded) for YoY (if we are forecasting 20% each quarter).
12M new shares so the total count is 310M and MCAP is now $90M (kind of getting big).
I would say "not bad at all".. Some were expecting or hoping for $1M in sales which clearly did not happen. I think the market was expecting something a litlte more but it is what it is. FDA updates are limited. We will see if Dr. Chan delivers. $663K in sales is still $663K in sales. He has convinced enough hopsitals to buy that much Cytosorb. A clinical study is needed to convince enough hospitals globally to buy $50M in Cytosorb.
Nothing happening, etc. Guaranteed weak sales for Q2 2014 - WATCH... Stock will move back down to $0.16 range. No real updates will be given except for the normal CTSO fluff.
sigh..... wasn't I saying this months ago?
The only thing that will move the stock is the following:
1.) FDA approval
2.) Incredible sales #'s $2M+ a quarter
3.) Clinical data showing Cytosorb works
Come on Mak.... Didnt i say this months ago? Z3peru is kind or correct. The dilution weekly is 1.1M shares and someone is buying them, etc. however, that isnt really good or bad.
$0.25 ceiling for another 10's of millions of shares AT $0.25.... I am expecting a drop after Q2 results.
copitzdonde you are a fool. I've stated 1,000,000x I am not this idiot proudamerican. If I was would I be calling him an idiot LOL? He bashes this stock with non-sense and none of his posts make sense. Everyone should just block him.
Going to be in atlantic city this weekend for anyone who wants to roll the dice w me!?
roseky - hasn't been much to talk about. That is why no one is trading the stock and volume died down. Kind of just a waiting game now to hear about 1.) Sales for Q2 2.) FDA update
There is no bashing for the millionth time. This is conversation. None of you are going to buy/sell stock and cause price to move based off of my remarks or ANYONE's remarks on this message board.
I am devils advocate and play it quite well. Had 6.8M now have around 4M. I think the opportunity to make a quick buck is fading so that is why 2.8M was sold. The core position will still remaing untouched but the trading position is being exited in anticipation the sales for Q2 will be bad and the stock will fall to $0.16-$0.18 by August-ish.
Some may go "oh you are missing out on the big run" .... Others who know what I am doing understand I am limiting risk and taking money off the table because of the increased uncertainty facing this company. I think Cytosorb sales are about to level off a few Q's in a row and this will upset investors. That coupled with no new FDA news, etc.
If it is so easy why is the market pricing in no increase in sales from Q1? Also, contracts do not necessarily mean revenue recognition in the quater the contract is signed, etc. Product has to be produced in facility, delievered to the consumer, and out of the hands of CTSO. That could take weeks and weeks.
We will see what happens I guess. I am anticipating sales between $300K-$400K to be honest. I do not see them going above $550K. When Dr. Chan gave guidance he was 60% through Q2 I believe. He could have given ACTUAL SALES numbers as of then and then forecasted the remaining 40% of the quarter. Seems to me like he was trying to hide weak sales.
Watch the PR will come out with the headline:
"CTSO sets record sales for the quarter... compared to Q2 2013"
Honestly - Game of Thrones has more credence than he does. Zacks has been prediciting $0.50 as of a year ago I believe LMAO.... These guys just build discounted CF models and plug in random assumptions. I could teach a high school student to do the same thing.
Facts are Dr. Chan gave good guidance Q1 using actual numbers and then for Q2 he said greater sales than Q2 2013 as opposed to giving actual numbers. This would lead to the assumption sales are not strong in Q2....
Oh boy. Here we go. CTSO will be acquired at a price of $10/share according to penny flipper LMAO....
There is 0% chance of uplisting in 2014. I said this in Q1 and am still saying it with 50% of the year left to go. The fundamentals are NOT EVEN CLOSE to being in place. We are going to afford a $1M/year listing fee LOL?? That is 10% of the capital we raised in the previous round of financing/dilution.
Also - not 1 company is planning to buy or even looking to buy CTSO. The message boards are notorious for magical buyout rumors. This isn't GAME OF THRONES penny flipper. No one is going to come and takeover the land and castle of CTSO.
If you are right the stock price will rise significantly. However, I believe your expectations are unrealistic and CTSO will yield around $300K in sales in Q2. The market will be upset and the stock will sell off below $0.20.