Plenty of future upside between the lines. WG needs to strike a deal for debt not shares to race as fast as it can toward a full feasibility study. Time is of the essence.....
Your approach might be possible. Yet even after a default the award will still be binding and paid over a not to distant time frame. GRZ has begun their full court press when it comes to ending the capability for VZ to WRANGLE anymore, at which point they loose any and all bargaining power to craft a settlement that might be less than they currently face by #$%$ around they way they are now.
Time is not on the side of VZ it is however on the side of patient GRZ shareholders. .
That is more or less the premise of the investment opportunity that may arise.... Time will soon tell.
Over time MIDD will continue it's specular climb!
When the "kitchen of the future" starts to really get rolling with several more franchises etc . within a few quarters we could be way over $120 per share. Middleby is the Apple of the kitchen.....
DB is pursuing both a settlement and the hardest yet longest dollar return by going the distance. Since the award VZ has been in settlement discussions with GRZ as well as dragging it's feet as much as it can.
The purpose of my previous post was to point out the advantages of adding shares to your current position with the assumption that where the stock is currently valued is well below the ultimate total of the settled award amount, miningIP data and interest that is accruing as we hold the shares. The past year has produced almost a 43% return on investment vs the S & P at just about 10%. The way I see it right now and going out one year from today odds are that we will have settled and our return will be as much as an added 43% or at the very least an additional projected 15% or more....
My take is that GRZ because of this "special situation" is the best possible investing opportunity in the mining space when you weigh the risk/rewards we face in the coming 365 days.
I agree that settling really does come down to how confident each side is in their stance , and in the next 90-120 days any doubt about GRZ being able to collect 100% plus interest will skyrocket from lets say 85% to darn near a virtual lock. DB during our call remarked several times that the VZ strategy to continue to delay the inevitable end game, set and match going forward only will weaken any bargaining power that they cling to. At some point certainly in the next 6 months or so they are out of any bargaining chips !
While I own a fair amount of shares I am seriously thinking of adding to the position in light of what lies ahead. At this point VZ looks fairly desperate especially with all that is going on in country- 99.9% of theses awards are settled. My bet is that within 6 months they cave.
GRZ at it's current share price is worth buying for several reasons.
The first is that the odds of the company not being awarded a very substantial portion of the now approx. $750 million is very low because of the long and very drawn out arbitration process that mandated the actual decision and award that has been followed along with the absurd foot dragging by VZ post the award.
Secondly within the next 60-90 days VZ will be at the very end of it's rope post the US confirming in the courts that the award is fully attachable in the US as well as internationally. By then any last minute motions for summary judgement will have been made and VZ will be required to post a bond in the full award amount in escrow and be at risk of paying every penny that they owe plus interest the moment certain additional legal wrangling's (A long, hard, intense argument, especially over an issue with lots of details, is a wrangle. Politicians and lawyers frequently engage in wrangles.)are decided in favor of GRZ. By continuing to not act in good faith the courts will look to make a well deserved example of VZ for it's bad behavior.
Third reason is that our interest payments LIBOR plus 2% currently yielding 2.5% is better than the current US 10 yr. bond so your "dead money" waiting for the final verdict and ultimate award is not dead. Plus the GRZ IP/mining data etc. kicker that will be horse traded to effect a settlement will be on top of the settled amount.
So all and all you as an investor in GRZ have a very unusual opportunity to still take advantage of THE SETTLEMENT THAT IS COMING SOMETIME THIS YEAR almost without doubt!!!
Oh the final reason is that I spoke with DB today and the tone of his voice has become much more adamant and somewhat militant about the soon to be completed Wrangle with the phuckers in VZ.
And that is all I have to say about that.....
OK here are my impressions- When Salim was introduced he and Tom Gardner approached the stage and rather than walk up the 3 flights of stairs Salim challenges Tom to the literally leap vertically straight up onto the stage... Tom and then Salim in his suit and jacket leaped onto the stage it was a very cool way to start off what would be come a memorable talk. The over arching theme during the talk was the passion that Middleby has for automating and inventing the absolute best kitchen that can be built for it's commercial segments and fully deploying the Viking brand with the new refinements that MIDD is in the midst of implementing. Salim painted a picture that he is the James Bond of cooking (and combustion) and that their headquarters R&D is like "Q's" shop. Because it was near Salim's birthday there was a special video that spoofed on the Bond like ways of Salim it was very revealing about the man , his family and his love of what he does.
After hearing him speak and then by complete luck meeting he, Tom and his wife in the lobby of the hotel while waiting on a friend. It was very inspirational, just spending a few minutes with Salim you get to realize no wonder that MIDD since he became CEO has grown from 50 million to almost over 6 billion in market cap. Put up a longterm chart for more than 10 years that picture is worth a thousand words!!!
Promise to report back thereafter, should be an interesting event. I have a Viking range in our current home, after building 6 different homes over the past 40 years this range /oven is by far THE BEST! by then earnings will be out and MIDD could be 10 points higher.....
You have to lock your shares away AND FORGET ABOUT IT!!!
Can't emphasize the holding strategy with WG shares. The Canadians will sell their mother for a nickels profit. There is so much BS that goes on with thinly traded shares especially north of the border. WG is a perfect hard asset play Greg & John et al are extremely good at creating long term value. Within two years we should be trading at $4-5 range at least. Buy on weakness .....
The current return on the 10 year US bond is 1.74 so GRZ is a fantastic hold here for all longs who can wait and see what the next steps will bring toward award resolution. GRZ is a lock for at least 6 bucks! That is my take ....
INVN should announce very strong earnings especially in light of AAPL earning and selling more than 74,000,000 Iphones. If they don't show good earnings after that, when will they???
It dawned on me that if you buy enough shares you just might be able to literally live(eat well for your WHOLE life) off the gains !
JJ it will be this week and I agree with your projection for a halt on Wednesday late morning about noon EST or so. The PEA means everything to WG and the future PFS study if we are not taken out prior to it's completion will be enhanced with the drill programs for late summer this year. No more hype no more speculation it's time to show us THE MONEY!!!!
There is chatter on several Canadian sites Stockhouse in particular that attended the Vancouver conference have mentioned Greg's presentation yesterday and that seem to think the PEA release is "imminent". Greg promised that it would be out this month would make sense that it will be out midweek .....
You are a star!
VZ should be and now they are being punished for their past actions.... so the whip is coming down !
Perhaps GRZ will get what is theirs soon enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!