bryan - information is everywhere
Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Business Week
Many good blogs.......The Big Picture, Naked Capitalism, KidDynamite, and several others.
You have to determine, is what you read factual, or real.
Remember, a broken clock is right twice a day, but is still a broken clock.
Morons like delta will be right, every 10 years or so......a bear market takes stocks down.
The other 9 years, delta just spreads fear.
Markets are not crashing, vix not going through the roof.........
manipulation is the new reality.........bears have been wrong.
this bubble can not sustain for long. ???
Japan is still printing.
ECB going into overdrive, buying debt.
The Fed takes a small break, before the next round of easing.......
Delta - you will have a very long wait, before you are happy.
little corrections will come and go......you are way too early.
At some point investors may lose confidence in the FED.
Of course, investors will lose confidence in the Fed......after the market falls, and does NOT recover.
But that might a long ways off.........might.
The Fed still has the WORLDS RESERVE CURRENCY......and a lot of assets, and a strong military.
The debt bubble will pop, it will be historic.
The hard part, is determining when.
So far, bears have not had good luck.
When stocks fall 150 points on Monday - Bears will be posting, THE TOP IS IN.
Just as they have done for the past 5 years.
restaurants are busy
hotels nearly full
airplanes - nearly 100 % capacity
housing continues to improve, near doubling from the lows 5 years ago.
the economy is not great, but is still moving along.
Minor corrections, mild bear markets are normal......
No froth hysteria in markets to cause another crash......
delta will have to wait another 20 years before he feels smart.
someday, a bear market will come.
Normal market cycles.
But do you really believe the Fed will just walk away, stop printing ????
I get the sense their children will be left with a bill .
You will be right.
Just not sure if it will be the children or great-grandchildren, left with bill. Or decreased purchasing power from the abuse of a fiat system. History might not repeat, but it often rhythms.
My thought was, baby booms hold large amounts of stocks, financial assets.
Someday, those stocks will be cashed in, some will rolled over........
The following generations, might not be as active in 401Ks, due to higher living expenses, as inflation creeps back, or comes when this deflationary cycle ends.
There are a few good posters.
aapl, dez, red queen, nyner, bryan, and a few others.........
With stable markets, slow grind higher, year after year..........not much fear as seen in the vix.
Yes, this bull run, will end, to be followed by a few corrections, and even a bear market.
Baby boomers hold a large amount of wealth.........to be redistributed to their children.
Taxes will continue to increase.
Republicans will fight obummer, washington will be a stalemate for the next two years.
Nothing new, same ole, same ole..........until the next event.
S/P above 2000
bears and delta extraordinaire, have been wrong, for a very long time
A lot of problems, in the world. Always have been problems.
Fools always looking for the next event, to crash America, and the free world.
Ok, America is corrupt as the rest of the world, nothing new.
But various freedoms, do give America an advantage, not to mention America's brain power.
Who invented the airplane, radio, nukes, automobiles, advanced medicine, internet, ect ect ect.
Morons and fools buying and holding sds and uvxy...........funny stuff
ok, the occasional bear market happens, but always recovers...........fact.
I call for nothing.
You are right, that screen name, does offer much.
Yours calls are dependent, on which screenname you chose.
easily said after the fact.
Many years, I stand by the same story, printing and manipulation.
You call for a crash, for the duration of a huge bull market.
Fortunatily, a few posters share good thoughts and ideas of possible market outcomes.
appl, red queen,
If not for the printing - You would have had your crash, a long time ago
delta, you are not alone.........many bought tvix, sds, uvxy years ago, only to discover, it didnt work.
Just as many purchased options, at the wrong time, or on the wrong side of the market.
cheap assets can get cheaper
expensive assets can get more expensive.
makes no difference what we believe, its reality that counts.
aapl was right, with market sentiment last spring - time cover, and AAI numbers.
Sadly, manipulation by Wall Street, the Fed, Washington, distorts reality.
Even with Japan's debt at 250% GDP..........reality continues to be distorted.
Yes, this will end badly - but could be a very long time..........decades or more.
each and every little correction, or even a normal bear market, will be seen by a few, as the end of the world.
others will see, a buying opt, buying at a good price.
one will be right, the other will not.
As for the Fed - No more printing,
Its a lie..........the printing has slowed, as the banks have improved, for now.
The printing will return, in full force, when the next problem arrives.
Capitalism has been replaced with manipulation.
Do not fight the Fed, they are smarter, and have more money than you.
Yes, you will be right someday, but will you have any money when that time comes ?
delta - almost everything you say is true - Printing did not cure Japan
Japan is not in a depression - rather a malaise for 20 years. And the Nikie is 50% higher, from the lows.
Due to massive printing for the past 20 years.
Japan does not own the world reserve currency. The USA does.
The printing will not stop - not for a very long time............IMO
If not for the printing - You would have had your crash, a long time ago.
Japan's Niki did crash from 40,000 to 10,000, after 1990.
From the bottom - 10,000 to 15,000 is a 50% gain, but far from the highs.
The Niki at 40,000 was a true bubble.
As for US markets, the fact they return to the old highs, the stock market is not a true bubble yet ?
The debt markets, may be another story.........
Japan has been printing for 20 years.......and will continue to print, as there is NO other choice.
All countries, with a Fiat system, will continue to print, and print for a very long period.
Why - Because those in power, know there is no other option.
Impossible to grow out of this dilemma. Printing is the only option for the foreseeable future.
Markets will muddle along, for a very long time........
A few lucky investors will side step, the next bear market
The trend remains higher......a slow market higher.
Cash will lose its purchasing power.
Hard assets, stocks, real estate, should provide a protection from the next round of inflation.
When will inflation return ?
The battle between deflation and inflation.
Inflation will not return, until real wage are allowed to rise.
The standard of living for most will continue a slow grind lower, back to historical norms.
Opps, getting a little long winded again......
so many thoughts and questions, so few answers.
japan has been printing like a madman for 20 years.
what if the rest of the world, also prints for 20 years ?
Maybe dow 35,000 ? With normal corrections and bear markets along the way.
Will the majority of people sit in cash, paying less than 1% forever ???
No one knows the answer, of when the house of cards come down.
Printing will NOT last forever.......but 20 years is a very long time.