Is Twitter selling at the top? ---------
-----------That seldom marks the top.
The top :
Stock to go up forever.
Never a better time to buy.
Do not be left behind - buy now
Smart money is buying
Stock might be expensive, but there deals for those who do their homework
The economy is at full employment - Stocks to go higher.
There are many more :
Larry Summers will make Ben look small.........
Larry Summer was part of the team, that had the Bank of Japan go to 0 rates in 1990.
Summers will take printing to a new level........IMO
You can not offer investors an alternative...........must keep investors in stocks.
Larry will keep the Zero Police alive for a very long time..............there is no other option.
But my crystal ball has never been perfect...........the next year will be interesting.
AAPL - excellent post.
Yes, most of the worlds gold has already been mined. IMO
If the price of gold falls - mining and exploration would slow.....what is the average cost of mining ?
Gold like any asset or commodity - is worth, what the market is willing to pay.
If the US Dollar is the preferred method of a "storage of wealth" - gold will become less attractive.
If the US Dollar is "debased" gold should go higher.
$800 seems like a fair value for gold - IMO
But the price of gold has been bid higher and fluctuates, just like stocks, currencies, or other assets.
Was $1900 the long term "top"...........Or is this a correction in a longer term bull market ??
The fair value of gold at some particular point in time - one discussion
The future value of gold - at point in the future - another topic
The price behavior, during times of stress
Gold goes higher as demand increases OR gold goes lower, being liquidated to raise cash ???
1987 2000 2008 all resulted in lower gold prices.
The US Dollar should start to rise, if TAPER actually happens.
I do not believe TAPER will work - The Fed will be forced to continue printing.
TAPER should prove to be a short term experiment - a test of strength of the markets.
Higher interest rates in America...........not a huge deal
Higher interest rates for Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal - a big deal.
The Euro could allow a Greek default a few years ago, and they still can not have a bank run,
even by small countries..........or risk systemic problems.
Syria, October budget battle, Taper..........could be an interesting few months into 2014.
Where gold will end up ? I do not know....
aapl - we had this discussion before.........
I remember.........you did educated me .
I agree........The price is what the market will bear - In free markets.
Under manipulation. naked shorting on the Comex, might distort prices
Some will buy gold in anticipation of gold to $10,000.........on the collapse of the US Dollar.
A few, buy gold - for when the world ends - gold will be worth ...... $$$$$
( try selling gold the day after the world ended)
Allow me to find your previous post, and re-educate myself.......
Gold is interesting.......
What is the fair value of gold ?
What is cost to make gold ? Manufacturing ? Mining ?
Where is the floor ?
What is gold worth ?
Gold does not pay a dividend or interest.
What is the value of a fiat currency, that can be printed to infinity ?
The comex has 51 claims for every once of gold, in the comex vault
Germany wants its gold returned..........The USA say "sure thing" but it will take years to return it.
Gold is down $600 from its high..........
How far has gold risen from its low of 2001 ( twelve years ago ) ?
Gold always falls in a crises............gold is sold to raise liquidity.
During periods of inflation - Stocks tend to hedge for inflation..........If you own the right stocks.
Why do countries have a large stock pile of gold.........USA 8000 tons.
The Royal Saudi Family ......
Has anyone ever seen democratic elections in Saudi Arabia ?
That ok, the Saudis sell cheap oil.........that's close enough.
Saudis want the Alawite government in Syria gone.......it will happen. Maybe not this month, but in time.
. ITS NOT SUSTAINABLE
Nor is your holdings of SDS DXD TVIX or UVXY
The Market is near ALL TIME HIGHS
Delta is near ALL TIME LOWS
delta is genius...........not
delta - do not worry about my Fridays
My Friday is spent, drinking your beer, porking your wife........while you cruise the gay bar.
Delta holding SDS TVIX DXD and UVXY,., down 95%
Delta is clueless moron
Even when the bond, debt bomb implodes.........delta has zero assets
No way can delta recover those lost assets.
Nyner has made a handsome profit, being correct about the markets.
Time will tell, if Nyner exits before the next bear market...........
But not now, Nyner and Tex have been right for the past 3 years.
'Liberals are stupid.' 'Conservatives are stupid.' 'Dems are stupid.' 'Republicans are stupid.'
In reality -
Obama has done a terrible job
Bush did a terrible job
Clinton - the worst ever
Regan - Blessed, shipping good jobs over-sea
The banks were near total collapse - The Fed has to buy all of their bad assets, with are now owned the taxpayers ( you and me )
The government allowed laws to be changed and repealed, to allow the crises to build and implode.
No one goes to jail - the criminals are rewarded.
Nothing has changed..............
Nyne's view is shared by many, including me
If the Fed stops QE........and faith returns to the markets
Gold will fall, miners will fall.
I do not believe the printing can stop.
The "printing" can be slowed, but can NOT be stopped.
There is no inflation
Deflation is still the worry.
Stock markets at near all time highs
Banks are not closed
Asia, India, and Russia seem to prefer gold, over US Dollars or US Debt.
Time will tell.
We are long over due for a correction
5% 10% ........... ???
I suspect, many are short the markets, and being squeezed
Speculators, delta, and hedge funds..........
Low volume........markets can run higher to squeeze short
or head fake lower , to get bears into the game.
Do not fight the Fed or manipulation.......they have more money, and better data than you do.
Bears being crushed in nothing new.
VIX - drops like a rock (again)
Someday delta will be right
The Fed can only print so much ?
Or due to access to ( free ) printing, the Fed can and will continue to print ?
Taper will be slow..........very slow - maybe a half of one percent.
1/2 % would take 200 months to remove QE............almost 10 years from now.
can delta wait that long ????
If markets started to fall..........QE will come back, even stronger.
Not easy to be delta.
A little shocked, Bank of America, dropped from the Dow Jones.
Nyner recommended BAC when it was trading at $5.......now above $15.
300% gain in 2 years........
Bank of America replaced by GS.
business must be slow - for spammers, making spammer work hard to find the SDS message board.
Obama is going to fall flat on his face.
Syria is a huge failure for Obama. A no win situation.
If Obama does not follow up with an attack - he looks stupid
If Obama attacks - He acts without any support from allies or most Americans
beagle - you opened a can of worms.
Ask 10 different people, and you will get 12 different answers.
My thought - I believe Medicare is costing too much. As baby boomers retire, no tax revenue, and increased burden the government. To remove government from funding Medicare, transfer the cost to population, via Obama Care.
We both respectfully disagree............
Something we do agree
Employment sucks for the 50% that are unemployed, or under-employed
But the 50% with good jobs, life is grand.....working, saving, 401K, house, car, vacations.
How long can the Fed kick the can ?
You are thinking short term.......how short term would you guess ?
What will be catalyst, to knock the markets lower ?
A simple 5% or 10% correction (normal market behavior)
Been a very long time since any meaningful correction....Thus we are over due.
But remember, the PPT is fully funded, and the Fed can always lower rates again.
If rates go from 2% to 4%, that is small increase - or a 100% increase or both ?
This is not normal economic activity.
It is manipulation.
Besides, why would America fall, before many of the weaker nations like Greece, Mexico, Spain, or Italy, who are in worse shape.........??? Just a few thoughts.
Yes the bears will have their day again. 1908 1929 1987 2000 and 2008.
And when the debt bubble implodes.........it will be historic, just as every crash is historic.
Life will go on.
Buzz, I agree to most of what your point is. But these are the same morons who DID NOT see the tech bubble.
Beagle, I respectfully disagree.
The smart money on Wall Street was selling all through 1999, it is called distribution.
In late 1999........high volume trading with little price movement was classic of massive distribution.
Smart money, selling to the sheeple.
Some sheeple are broke, some sheeple are scared to go into the market
Thus, the Fed and Wall Street, have pushed for ultra low interest rates, to force people into stocks.
less than 1% in the bank, or ultra low bonds
9% average return in the stock market
I agree, the next "real crises" will make 2008 look like a picnic.
The question is time...........not if.
The Fed has proven, it can kick the can down the road for an extended period of time
This manipulation by Washington and the Wall Street, can last for decades.....(more than 10 years)
Low volume trading.......It is not a sign of a top At least not a blow off top.
Even the worst of banks, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, are not in default - not yet.
There will be plenty of warning, before Delta is finally right..........
Many do agree, this will end badly.
No one can agree on the timing.........
We do know, up until now, the bears have been wrong.
As for the future -
Time will tell.
Taper - To slowly decrease.
The Fed will not stop buying bonds, to hold down interest rates.
The Fed will slow - ever so slightly, taper.
1/2 of 1 % per month.........for 200 months would be a good starting point.
And if the market or the economy needs help - The Fed and PPT are there to help.
I never agreed with the Fed bailout program.
But I am smart enough to not - fight the fed.
Those who fought the Fed - delta, wilroild, jlcconsult have not faired so well.
Those who purchased SDS DXD TVIX and UVXY are down 95%, much worse than any stock market crash.
Nyner and Tex have profited handsomely.
Yet the little monkey, puffs out his chest, wants to make silly bets.
No respect for delta.
The US Economy is not great......still better than most of Europe and the World.
Most are working, many have good jobs. Yes there will always be some, underemployed.
Yes, there will always be a lower class, and some who can not manage money.
And some with low intelligence will have off-spring that resemble delta.
Yes there will wars, crashes, terrorism, and bank failures
But somehow, the sun will rise tomorrow.