Oct 23, 2014 11:05 AM
On OCT 23, delta posted, FINAL POMO........S/P will fall
father time proves delta wrong again.
No more QE - stocks accelerate to the downside
200 day average broken - stocks accelerate to the downside
no one can afford to pay their electric bill - stocks accelerate to the downside
russia to attack - stocks accelerate to the downside
greece to default - stocks accelerate to the downside
The financial world today is the same. Billion dollar stimulus packages. Quantitative Easing 1, 2, 3…
Negative interest rates.
Negative long-term debt yields.
Cash withdrawal and transaction controls. Higher taxes.
When this party is over, it will spectacular.
Governments will not lose ,,,,1 cents.....its the taxpayer, and beneficiary that takes the hit.
Even those on the "right side of the market " might NOT get paid.....if those on the wrong side, have zero funds.
FDIC or SPIC will not have enough money to cover the losses, from gazillions in derivatives.
Yes an ETF is a derivative.
When will the SHTF ?
10 years ? 50 years ?
What will be the catalyst ? War, Terrorism, or the simple weight of misallocation of funds beyond what manipulation can cover ?
A lot of side line money, many bears still alive, not enough froth.
Like 1929, 1987, 2000, or 2006.........most were blind sighted.
Most bears had thrown in the towel, prior to the real bear market.
oct 28.........delta posted
bottom falling out after QE ended.
So delta, how has the imminent crash predictions been workin out for ya ?
yes, being on the right side of the trade is important.
No one can pick the exact top or bottom.
Timing is never easy, especially with manipulation of ultra low interest rates distorting markets.
Wise investing, saving, is key to long term financial health.
Stocks always provide the best return.
Key is to understand the next AAPL or new industry.
OLED is a young company, few competitors, should do great over the next 30 years.
Radio Shack, Woolworths, had their time, now are dead or dying.
Yes, there will be another bear market, many more to come.
There will also be many more bull markets in the future, producing many new billionaires.
As I walk through the Mall......Everyone has a smart phone, and purchased merchandise.
Walking through the airport...Everyone has a smart phone, traveling on vacation or business
In a restaurant .... crowded, and everyone has a smart phone and a nice meal.
Some middle class struggles, some do not.
Highways filled, many nice newer vehicles.
Through out history, some of the population is poor, some is wealthy.
Some wealthy people squander wealth
Some not so wealthy are great savers.
A few invest in ETFs that have a time decay...........ouch
China’s $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits,
the most expensive level among global peers.
When the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked in March 2000, technology companies in the U.S. had a mean price-to-earnings ratio of 156.
220 vs 156..........OMG
Big difference. QE and printing to continue.
No other place to put money, except for stocks.
Huge Debt ? No problem, pay off debt with freshly printed new money. ( fiat )
Currency is no longer limited to gold backing. Just fire up the printing press
Or better yet, just add a several trillion to a monetary base. Congress will approve.
You cant borrow your way out of too much debt.
But you can print, NEW DOLLARS to pay off old debt.
The power of a FIAT SYSTEM.
World Reserve Currency, with a military to match.......what a concept.
You cant borrow your way out of too much debt
you can "kick the can down the road" for a very very long time.
Manipulation will continue for a very long time.
decades or longer.
Impossible to time even mild corrections, let alone the next bear market.
gold stocks are cheap NEM ABX NG
Physical gold is cheap at $1200.
Silver is cheap at $17.
Buying UVXY at $50, and holding to $14 is not a great trade.
But buying uvxy at $13 and selling at $24 is okay.
But buzz why do you have positions in gold and oil? The safe trade is SPY and DIA, More aggressive is QQQ and IWM. Super aggressive is IBB, TQQQ and TNA.
Look at a long term chart of IBB TQQQ TNA..........
Why lose money, you spent a life time saving ?
Stocks return the best returns over a long time period.
Yes, the manipulated market will get nailed, when reality returns.
( delta will have moment ) Might be a very long time.
Ultra low rates will not go away.
Talk of higher rates, is just talk.............
.05% to .1% is a 100% increase, but still an ultra low rate.
Bill Gates lost half of his "wealth" in the 2008-2009 meltdown
--and he remained in the .01% percentile.
Gates did not sell at the bottom.
the lower 70% do not own stocks........living paycheck to paycheck, or hand to mouth
who has ever accurately forecasted a market crash ?
Yes, many perabears, call for a crash on a daily basis.........then once every 10 years claim to be a genius.
Before the next leg higher, The next bull market
A short , sharp 10% or 15% decline to scare investors,
Trillions on the sidelines in cash.
No real bear market, until the side line cash is committed.