Yeah, some contango in the VIX right now, but 13.00 was a good entry imo. Market looked like it was treading water today and my gut told me it was going to go red eod, which it did. I ended up selling in AHs...wish I hadn't done that now. High vol in AHs and a good spike...looking like either a gap up tomorrow or a bear trap?
July is 2.139 atm. Still .13 contango on the rollover from June. Here's a helpful post on the IHUB board to understand what may happen..."It would have been great if this week had been blistering hot and NG broke out and ran. Then Friday we could have rolled into DGAZ and rode it up while NG pulled back and the Contango gap closed as well. NG has done the exact opposite and might rebound next week as the contango gap closes. Like a canceling effect"
My guess NG will not change much by Monday pre mkt...just wanted to play it safe. I'd be surprised to see a substantial gap one way or the other. Hoping for 23s, but we'll see
I was considering it around that price as well. Hoping to get a better entry on Monday, but have my doubts it will go much lower after the pullback over the last two days. Will go in pre mkt Monday, either way
Kudos to you as well, c.note. You and jimbo nailed it today. As I mentioned, I got out near the high in pre mkt and no...I didn't buy TVIX at 3.40 for the record. Just DTed XIV all day for some gains. The contango on TVIX is awful and conversely the backwardation on XIV made it the horse to bet on for now, anyway.
I'll make a note of that...ahem, c.note. You may be right. I don't think futures gets us that high tomorrow, but I'd like to be wrong about that. All I "feel" is there is a bit of a storm brewing, whether tomorrow or next week.
I doubt it, jimbo...but stranger things have happened. Why are you expecting the market to go up necessarily...nothing inspiring in the news...retail down...April jobs report not expected to be something to write home about etc. May get a green pop like today, but I think the downward momo in the mkt is evident lately. TVIX not popping and dropping like usual...VIX on the rise
TVIX is kinda hanging around uncharacteristically. I just bought some at 3.73...would normally not touch it here, but the chart is looking good and the selling lately has been persistent. I'm feeling over 4 soon enough, but am ready to ave down if we get a drop tomorrow. Market mojo is just missing of late, but can certainly show up unannounced at any moment. Retail is down and I don't think the April jobs report is going to be anything to celebrate about.
"They" are usually the winners...like the house at Vegas. Don't get me wrong...I am a bear at heart, but I also know how powerful the Fed and market machinery is and how dangerous it can be to bet against it. Exercise caution and be nimble when playing the short side.
74 actually...I posted 77 initially. Either way, it's not looking good for longs...this week anyway. Amazing how they run the price back down eod, eh. Did the same thing yesterday, only to have NG gap down the last 2 days, oh well. Did you read the article on Celsius's page to the right about this expected weather pattern, blue? Might be a good time to jump out of DGAZ following the report this week if what they say is going to transpire.
injection of 64 this week. It'll be interesting...as always...to see what happens to NG prices if this expectation is close. I'm betting on D for now, but just read an interesting article from Celsius Energy on a weather pattern that has formed which will favor NG usage for the next 2 weeks. If the D gets a pop on the report, it'll be a good time to jump out of the way, if this weather pattern is indeed a fact.
Just found out about them from the IHUB board. I don't know how accurate they have been. Their forecast for the next 5 weeks is...+74...+50...+48...+77...+248...we'll see. If figures like these actually come to pass and it doesn't put a dagger in the heart of NG...then nothing will.
Celsius Energy predicts an injection of 77 for this weeks report. If that is even close, big hit for NG.