Killing the markets is exactly why Yellen will remain dovish on raising rates...QE is not even an issue right now. As far as Brexit is concerned, I've read several articles on it and the "stays" are leading the polls apparently. So even though there is fear of it happening, it very well may not happen, in which case there could be an epic short squeeze in the market. It will be a gamblers game to side on way or the other.
Don't necessarily expect the Fed to surprise in favor of the shorts. Yellen's principal aim is to save the market...we'll see
My thoughts too, nd...mkt will sell off more tomorrow but I'm guessing dove speak will give the mkt a bounce on Wed. I'm on the wrong side of the trade here trying to catch a bottom on XIV but am expecting a dead cat rally to stop the bleeding mid week. My hope anyway. Never seem to be on TVIX/UVXY when the sh*t hits the fan, oh well
Good points, mikey...probably better to save the powder for the big moves. Most of the big money has exited stocks already, anyway. Not sure what will create the kind of fear that will spike the VIX for several days running. Thoughts?
Our only hope short term is Yellen calling for the rate increase. If the market hasn't turned around by weeks end, I'm cutting losses and getting out. 13 and some change would be fine with me, but if we don't get there, Im taking back what I can get. Cost ave is 13.09. Reverse splits are not an issue, per se. I'll be out of UVXY long before that ever becomes an issue
OK...financial and tech sector floated the boat today. May have to wait for June to get these pesky sellers off our backs. Frustrating...those PM decisions get ya most of the time!
You feeling OK about that? That's my ave, but I feel headfaked in by what happened yesterday. Never thought this was going to happen today. My first clue should've been futures up 6 points when I made my first ill fated purchase at 13.28 in early PM, then ave down a couple times...also too early. Just going to have to wait out this bogus rally and wait for the rate hike announcement in June...HOPEFULLY.! Yellen may bail on that too, who knows.
Yeah, some contango in the VIX right now, but 13.00 was a good entry imo. Market looked like it was treading water today and my gut told me it was going to go red eod, which it did. I ended up selling in AHs...wish I hadn't done that now. High vol in AHs and a good spike...looking like either a gap up tomorrow or a bear trap?
July is 2.139 atm. Still .13 contango on the rollover from June. Here's a helpful post on the IHUB board to understand what may happen..."It would have been great if this week had been blistering hot and NG broke out and ran. Then Friday we could have rolled into DGAZ and rode it up while NG pulled back and the Contango gap closed as well. NG has done the exact opposite and might rebound next week as the contango gap closes. Like a canceling effect"
My guess NG will not change much by Monday pre mkt...just wanted to play it safe. I'd be surprised to see a substantial gap one way or the other. Hoping for 23s, but we'll see
I was considering it around that price as well. Hoping to get a better entry on Monday, but have my doubts it will go much lower after the pullback over the last two days. Will go in pre mkt Monday, either way
Kudos to you as well, c.note. You and jimbo nailed it today. As I mentioned, I got out near the high in pre mkt and no...I didn't buy TVIX at 3.40 for the record. Just DTed XIV all day for some gains. The contango on TVIX is awful and conversely the backwardation on XIV made it the horse to bet on for now, anyway.
I'll make a note of that...ahem, c.note. You may be right. I don't think futures gets us that high tomorrow, but I'd like to be wrong about that. All I "feel" is there is a bit of a storm brewing, whether tomorrow or next week.