Glad to hear it's a little earlier than last year, when there were, accounting-wise, too many moving and negative parts from the Lifecell sales agreement dissolution. I see this as a positive nod to business normalcy.
I think it's possible that the current drop is a play to make the remaining 5k $12.50 call options expire worthlessly tomorrow, January 15th.
I think the current drop is a play to make the remain 5K call options expire worthlessly tomorrow, January 15th.
This talk was short, 22 minutes, but Arun managed to deliver it with nary a pause. Slides were provided and helpful. He started with a by now typical description of SPY technology, Novadaq’s devices, and the medical applications targeted. Following are some highlights of the remainder.
SPY Technology Procedures 200,000 / Installed Base - 650 Standalone - 1700 Firefly
Charts of financial performance - The new $20M Q4 2015 revenue bar impressive towers over the preceding ones - until you realize the the axis isn’t zero based. Still, a doubling over two years isn’t bad.
Novadaq’s approach to value based healthcare: fewer complications, fewer re-admissions, fewer repeat surgeries, newer/better procedures. Tables of comparative complication rates with and without SPY were given for breast reconstruction and colon resection with associated costs.
Slide 17 (an eye opener) - a table detailing hospital readmissions (and costs) for cholecystectomy, colorectal resection, wound debridement, and lower extremity amputation. The readmission rates for these range from 9.5% to 22.8% and the total cost for them is estimated to be over $15B! I had no idea readmissions for cholecystectomy (gall bladder removal) was 10% and costs $4B. (A similar surprise for wound debridement.) Use of SPY technology in all these procedures could slash readmission rates. Look at the replay for this slide alone.
The key applications opportunity slide contains no additions and has the same numbers as the presentation last year - two million procedures total.
New products (handheld SPY and 5mm endoscope) in 2016.
New imaging molecules for tumors are on the way for 2017.
International sales to kick in in the second half of 2016.
All in all, encouraging.
No, LUNA can't replace an xray based-machine in all cases. However, you don't first check the breaker panel to see if the lights are working, you just flip the wall switch and open your eyes.
Of particular note to followers of Cardica, over that period (9/30/2015) Broadfin Capital increased its number of Novadaq shares from 520k to 1.90M. They now own 3.4% of Novadaq. I'm not saying whether that's a good thing or a bad thing!
The top five holders are FIDELITY (FMR) at 11.5%, JPMORGAN CHASE at 11.2%, PRIMECAP at 8.8%., JANUS at 8.6%, and CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL at 7.6%. That’s 48% of the pie, folks. Over the period all these companies pretty much stood pat, except JPMC which dropped its holdings from 12.8% to 11.2%.
I don't see any action regarding Stryker. The only one I noticed was relating to Karl Storz efforts to invalidate claims in Novadaq's Patent Number 7,420,151.
Despite many positives put forth in recent communications, there are some headwinds. It's clear from listening to the Sifel Conference webcast that one investor concern is related to dropping kit ASP, mainly due to the conversion of placed units to capital sales units.
Another is lack of progress on LUNA sales growth. One question put forward was if using LUNA might actually decrease wound care clinic revenue by decreasing the number of hyperbaric sessions required. (This concern will probably dwindle as results-based reimbursement takes hold.)
Also of concern is the coming 50% increase in sales staff, which is likely to, temporarily, result in reduced overall productivity.
Not a subject of recent talks is the fact that many of us invested when the company looked like positive cash flow was right around the corner. Ever since the Lifecell troubles began, that horizon has continuously receded. Accelerated growth in the near future may change that, but it remains to be seen.
I agree that the FILM study is exciting; the detailed explanation of the why it is so urgent to map and biopsy these sentinel lymph nodes was excellent and should be viewed by all who have only a vague idea of the utility of doing so.
BioTuesdays’ interview of Arun Menawat on 10/20/2015 was noteworthy for at least two points. 1) The newly announced 5mm endoscope should allow surgeons increased utilization of Pinpoint; 35% to 40% of surgeries require the smaller size. 2) Novadaq is still actively developing the radiopharmaceutical imaging product (Trapper) and the laser doppler flow imaging product. Nerve imaging efforts will be discussed later next year.
A duplicate post on IV will provide a link.
I wish I could attend Investors Day, but family life trumps financial life, at least this year! I'm looking forward to hearing any tidbits you and Pezel may pick up. You might ask why PILLAR III is coming along more slowly than expected (just about the only negative item in the whole cc). My concern is slippage; even after study's end, official publication of PILLAR II's results took a lot longer than expected.
Have a great trip,
FYI, about 5k of the 10k of the $12.50 Jan 16 Call open interest is now history, the 10k $10.00 Put remains intact.
Typical traditional 4th quarter revenue runs sequentially at about 19% over the 3rd quarter result. That would put the upcoming 4th's revenue at about $20.25M. Currently, the analyst estimates call for $19.09M average, with the high estimate being $20.32M. Sounds like they're going for the high end.
Interesting scenario, GSA, but my question is, who is on the other side of this transaction, selling all these calls and puts?!!!!
I am hesitant to believe these are "real" trades. The trade volume is so anomalous on both the call and put sides that it appears likely all bets were placed by the same entity. These are approaching contract volumes usually reserved for companies the size of AAPL. A billboard, perhaps?
GSA, my comment was directed at Pezel's comment that Arun should wake up. Getting a FDA label is an ordeal and I'm sure Novadaq is awake. It just can't speak. Yet.
I'm unsure if Novadaq has FDA approval for this application yet. If not, it isn't allowed to advertise off-label use.