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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

bwu106 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 10, 2014 8:29 AM Member since: Jul 30, 2004
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  • yesterdays interim rpeort was about the 1st 2 months of the quater. As we all know, retail gasline prices were very week during Jan - Feb. However, both oil prices and rertail gasline prices were up sharply. SO, CVX should be able to make earnings of about 2.75 for the 1st quater, due to the very strong March fundementals.

    CVX has the best balance sheet and very high dividened yield. Priduction volume and earnings should start to gain big strength later this year and next year. Very strong buy!!!!

  • both oil price and natural gas price have stayed high during the 1st quater. Especially, natural gas consumption in the US was very, very high. SO, my guess is profit in the 1st quater shold be very improssive.

    Anyone else has any thoghts?

  • Reply to

    when & how much ?

    by tiglet2l Mar 31, 2014 9:54 AM
    bwu106 bwu106 Apr 7, 2014 9:54 PM Flag

    CVX has been increasing divi at abotu 10% over the years. Since payout ratio is still at very of 30-40%, so I woud think they will still increse it from $1 to $1.1. This shold bring dividend yield to 3.7% at current share price. This is very attractive, expecially considerring we will have production growth of some 5-6% over the comig year or so. Massive filed from the golf of Maxico and Austrillia will comeon stream laster this year, so managemtn shold feel [retty confident to raise ddivi by 10%.

  • We have this massive withdral of natral gas from storage during the 1st quater, due to the historical cold in some 50 years. Sure higher gas prices shuold difinately benefit CVX and XOM. However, I do not know how the higher volume will affact CVX's top and bottom line. Based on my reading, natural gas in storage has come down from more than 3 trillions cubic feet to just 0.8 billion cubic feet this week. This kind of massive use of natural gas has not been seen over the last 10 years. So, I do noto think many has figured out how much of a positive effect both higher natural gas price and higher N. gas volume will have on CVX's net profit.

    I am prety sure this will be very positive for CVX over the 1st quater.

    ANother question. CVX has been bookign natrual gas price at 2.7-3.2 over the 3rd and the 4th quaters of 2013. My understanding is, CVX has been storgint thes egas in storage. However, when CVX sold these gas during the 1st quater, they booked price for all the gas in stoage at 4-6. i would imagine, CVX should be able to book the price difference for all the gas during the 1st quater. Am I right on these? If not, can someone tell me how CVX balance theor book for such difference?

  • weekend analyiss in the media suggest chance fior a oil deal for Iran is close to zero, now with US and Russia relation is such bad shape. This can further add fuel to oil price, on top of the uncertinaty of oil supply from Russia.

  • The biggest thing for Russia is their oil, in fact their total oil prodcution is only behind US and Suadia Ribia. To really hurt Russia, oil is the only thing to do somthing about it. Besides, even if oil is not targeted, a wonded Russia will take their eye balls of thier focus on oil. This bound to reduce Russia oil production over the short and medium term.

  • I think, if Russia goes into war in Ukrance, EU and the US may just be sttupid to do it.

    Also, if this happens, the US will be in no position to life Iran restriction for sure.

    Bothe these possibilities can increse oil p[rices next week.

  • Reply to

    Riots in Russian = good for oil prices

    by bannakedshorting Feb 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    bwu106 bwu106 Mar 2, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    this is what i am thinking. If the US and EU impose some kind of restirction on Rassian oil and gas, as what we did to Iran, oil suply can be reduced by a big margin, then we are talking about oil price at 140 possibly.

  • Record demand for heating oil and natural gas for the 1st quater will surprise everyone to the upside on the street.

    CVX is now at yearly low. Buy low and sell high later!!! Expect 20-30% gain at least over coming year!

  • divident soon to be 4%. If this is not a strong buy, I do not what is.

    Expect 20-30% gain pver coming year!

  • Reply to

    Chevron : Oversold

    by cramer_madmoney Feb 7, 2014 10:07 AM
    bwu106 bwu106 Feb 22, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    way, way over sold!!!!

    Expect CVX to increse divident in a couple of months, then divi at more than 4%. PLus all thee mager projects are coming up on stream in less than 1 year.

    Some on wall street are just simply blind. They will miss potential 20-40% gain if they do not buy here.

  • CVX market cap is less thaan half of XOM, so higher natural gas price shall bring about the same increse for share basis or market cap basis. 1st quater and 2nd quater EPS will have big positive surprises.

  • average N. Gas price for CVX US gas at just $3.2 average.

    Just last week, Natural gas price has incresed by more than 20%, now standing at $6.2/per thousand cubic feet. This compares to $3.2 for last quater. Since inventory of natural gas nows is at 10 year low of $1.44 triilion, and this will reach leas than 1 tillion for the US before winter is over, record low. Another extreme cold is coming to the US nest week.

    In fact, most people think, if total N. gas reached below 1 triillion, presure in the storage tanks will be too low for the gas to be pumped to markets around the country. the end result will be potential price increse on massive scale. As for CVX and XOM, this shall bring in boat load of extra profit for possibly next a few years to come. A big spike for the US natural gas price will possibly increse oversees N. gas price, which in turn further increse profits for CVX and XOM.

    According to the quaterly reports, CVX US makes about 40% of XOM's natural gas production. However, XOMmarket cap is more than twice of CVX. So, the increse in natural gas price will have very similar effect to CVX and XOM, on a share count or market cap basis.

    CVX has some masisve projects are comig on stream in the 2nd half of this year. effects for this year will be small. but increse can be higher than 5% next year!

    Solid balance sheet, in fact best versus XOM, BP and RDS, and dividend will be incresed in a couple of months!!!!

  • just for capital gain. Plus, we have got dividend 4% a year over the coming year. Sold balance sheet just about 6 billin net debt, the strongest balance sheet of all the 4 super majors (xom, BP, RDS).

  • Stock now is tarding at p/e lower than 10. The stock is now at dividend of 3.6%. In 3 months, when CVX increse dividend by another 10%, we are looking at dividend yield at 4%.

    Most importantly, CVX has 3 massive projects that are comign on streat over the coming year that will be producing close to 300,000 barrels of oil liquids!!!!

    Grreat buy at this dirt cheap price!!!!

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