We have this massive withdral of natral gas from storage during the 1st quater, due to the historical cold in some 50 years. Sure higher gas prices shuold difinately benefit CVX and XOM. However, I do not know how the higher volume will affact CVX's top and bottom line. Based on my reading, natural gas in storage has come down from more than 3 trillions cubic feet to just 0.8 billion cubic feet this week. This kind of massive use of natural gas has not been seen over the last 10 years. So, I do noto think many has figured out how much of a positive effect both higher natural gas price and higher N. gas volume will have on CVX's net profit.
I am prety sure this will be very positive for CVX over the 1st quater.
ANother question. CVX has been bookign natrual gas price at 2.7-3.2 over the 3rd and the 4th quaters of 2013. My understanding is, CVX has been storgint thes egas in storage. However, when CVX sold these gas during the 1st quater, they booked price for all the gas in stoage at 4-6. i would imagine, CVX should be able to book the price difference for all the gas during the 1st quater. Am I right on these? If not, can someone tell me how CVX balance theor book for such difference?
weekend analyiss in the media suggest chance fior a oil deal for Iran is close to zero, now with US and Russia relation is such bad shape. This can further add fuel to oil price, on top of the uncertinaty of oil supply from Russia.
The biggest thing for Russia is their oil, in fact their total oil prodcution is only behind US and Suadia Ribia. To really hurt Russia, oil is the only thing to do somthing about it. Besides, even if oil is not targeted, a wonded Russia will take their eye balls of thier focus on oil. This bound to reduce Russia oil production over the short and medium term.
I think, if Russia goes into war in Ukrance, EU and the US may just be sttupid to do it.
Also, if this happens, the US will be in no position to life Iran restriction for sure.
Bothe these possibilities can increse oil p[rices next week.
this is what i am thinking. If the US and EU impose some kind of restirction on Rassian oil and gas, as what we did to Iran, oil suply can be reduced by a big margin, then we are talking about oil price at 140 possibly.
Record demand for heating oil and natural gas for the 1st quater will surprise everyone to the upside on the street.
CVX is now at yearly low. Buy low and sell high later!!! Expect 20-30% gain at least over coming year!
divident soon to be 4%. If this is not a strong buy, I do not what is.
Expect 20-30% gain pver coming year!
way, way over sold!!!!
Expect CVX to increse divident in a couple of months, then divi at more than 4%. PLus all thee mager projects are coming up on stream in less than 1 year.
Some on wall street are just simply blind. They will miss potential 20-40% gain if they do not buy here.
CVX market cap is less thaan half of XOM, so higher natural gas price shall bring about the same increse for share basis or market cap basis. 1st quater and 2nd quater EPS will have big positive surprises.
average N. Gas price for CVX US gas at just $3.2 average.
Just last week, Natural gas price has incresed by more than 20%, now standing at $6.2/per thousand cubic feet. This compares to $3.2 for last quater. Since inventory of natural gas nows is at 10 year low of $1.44 triilion, and this will reach leas than 1 tillion for the US before winter is over, record low. Another extreme cold is coming to the US nest week.
In fact, most people think, if total N. gas reached below 1 triillion, presure in the storage tanks will be too low for the gas to be pumped to markets around the country. the end result will be potential price increse on massive scale. As for CVX and XOM, this shall bring in boat load of extra profit for possibly next a few years to come. A big spike for the US natural gas price will possibly increse oversees N. gas price, which in turn further increse profits for CVX and XOM.
According to the quaterly reports, CVX US makes about 40% of XOM's natural gas production. However, XOMmarket cap is more than twice of CVX. So, the increse in natural gas price will have very similar effect to CVX and XOM, on a share count or market cap basis.
CVX has some masisve projects are comig on stream in the 2nd half of this year. effects for this year will be small. but increse can be higher than 5% next year!
Solid balance sheet, in fact best versus XOM, BP and RDS, and dividend will be incresed in a couple of months!!!!
just for capital gain. Plus, we have got dividend 4% a year over the coming year. Sold balance sheet just about 6 billin net debt, the strongest balance sheet of all the 4 super majors (xom, BP, RDS).
Stock now is tarding at p/e lower than 10. The stock is now at dividend of 3.6%. In 3 months, when CVX increse dividend by another 10%, we are looking at dividend yield at 4%.
Most importantly, CVX has 3 massive projects that are comign on streat over the coming year that will be producing close to 300,000 barrels of oil liquids!!!!
Grreat buy at this dirt cheap price!!!!
CVX has 16 billions $ of cash, and higher interest rates should be positive for CVX's savings.
CVX will be increasing the dividend in early 2014, from 3.3% to 3.7%, using histroy as a guide. It should make CVX more attractiive to treasuries agin by then!!!
CVX spent a massive $12.8 billions foe capital expenditures for their 4-5 huge projects, 2 in Austrilia and 2 in the Golf of Mexico. In fact, this is even way more spending than XOM. While taking on so many huge projects may be a good idea for the long term, but CVX is sacrificing some short term pains. People on the street were just talking about low refining margins. True, this is one of the big reasons for the lower than expected EPS. The true reaosn for CVX is the massive spending on the 2 mage projetcs under way. Fortunately, these projetcs shall start to produce a lot of oil and gas staring in 2014.
So, all considerred, CVX is still the best of the major intergrated oils!
last year EPS was 2.55$. I expect them to make $2.7 or better. In fact, if not because of some $1 billionws one time items, we are looking at EPS at more than $3 per share!!!!
just refer to my message. All major oil companies have come out with their earnings. They are universally down some 20-35%. If I am right, CVX should be making $2.7 a share or better. Production is going to be up some 10% over the coming year. The stock has got a lot of upside potential!!!!!
If this does not move CVX up, I do not what will move it up!!! Let's see if it mopves up to 128 area!!!!
first. oil and gas pricees are not that weak, and they are not about to go much weaker. If they do go much weaker, you can expect OPEC will start to make noices about cuttign production to keep prices high.
Also, bear iniind, CVX is trading at p/e just 9, and it willincrease oil and gas production about 10% over the next 20 months or so. CVX is have dividend about 3.3%, and in a few months, it will increse by another 10% at least. CVX also has no net debt on its balance sheet. More oevr, CVX is close ot a position to increse itsa stock buybacks soon.
biggest reason of low p/e over last 4 years or so is due to the massive 18 billion lawsuits against cvx. However, this clooud is finally lifting. The internatinal triburial has just recently ruled that CVX is not liable to this .
For CVX, it is not just low p/e that is making it very attractive. It is more importantly, the fact that a few massive projects are coming on stream over the nest 2-3 years. Expect oil and liqified natural gas wil add 10-15% to productions over the next 2-3 years. And, the decent 3.4% dividend will surely be incresed by at least 10% in 2014.
And, CVX is the only oil major who acturally has more cash at hand than its totaldebt. XOM used to be like CVX, but XOM has this massive sharebuy backs eating up their cah pile. CVX however is only bujying 1.25 billions $ share back a quater, instead focus on dividend increases.
All looking great for CVX 2014!