Brazilian pension reform got voted down yesterday, so the gov now needs even more money to break even - and PBR is one big money earner they control-
I imagine the 146% y/y tax increase that has hit PBR this year will go up even further.
I don't understand any investor wanting to hold this stock - Sure it could be a great company making big bucks and paying out big divis, but the Brazilian gov would rather your divis be taken in the form of taxes (or whatever) to pay pensions for ex gov employees.
Those pensions are high, and are indexed to inflation and the minimum wage. Inflation is 9%, so pension raise of 9%, minimum wage goes up 9% (from US$150/mo to 165/mo - a public pension gos up from US$ 1000/mo to US$ 1100/mo. The poor get their $15, ex gov employees get $100 and more)
"Numbers still being elaborated" - and after they are elaborated can they be believed, and how much will they then be "revised." Anybody notice that now that PBR is making a bit of coin on refined product, the gov has increased the tax bite (eliminated the discount) - 146% higher than last year (Oglobo yesterday).
If PBR is and has been at severely depressed prices, why isn't the gov increasing their 51% share to make those big cap gains?
This is a familiar pattern just before xdivi - hard to understand the why of it, but check out the 1 to 5 year charts. The cs is still improving in PADD II (still absurdly high in the west coast - PADD 5), which looks very good for NTI , but the small Bakken spread with WTI is nothing to write home about.