Seems more like a walk, with the 8 place hitter coming up, and a reliever (fed rates) coming in that throws nasty heat.
corsage - please, comment less about other posters "vulgar"posts and more on treasury rates, swaps and hedges -etc.
This “During the second quarter of 2015, the Company sold residential mortgage-backed securities ("RMBS") resulting in realized losses of $1.9 million (based on security prices from March 31, 2015)” and a “management fee of $1 million” (Bimini) look very ugly separately and even uglier together.
And I still hold a couple of hundred shares - ech
good info. What eia site do you use for such specific info?
I've searched eia's links, especially for graphs, and can't get a padd 2 3:2:1 crack data. I use "howardweil" and "firstenergy," and I thank them very much. Bloomberg has a very good pay site (used to be free), which I've avoided (piker).
Crack much higher, differential too (7/22, "Refining Report," Howardweil)
PADD II 2:1:1 crack is now $25+ (25% higher y/y, 20% above last Q)
The Bakken WTI diffferential also shot up (now 20% above last Q, but 25% lower y/y).
All looks very good.
Lots of storage (3mm bbls I recall). Cushions those nasty crude price fluctuations.
17% of a pipeline from Clearbrook to the refinery (or very near?).
corsage_isle, your posts always begin with a little bit of fact that lead to absurdly unfounded innuendos: \\
“I think it likely that Orchid, aka ORC-ers, will pick up the tab!. “
Kinda like Fox News.
But the word “consider” did not appear once –
Isn't about time to use the phrase “the reality is.”
PADD II (Chi) cs (2:1:1) is higher than I've ever seen ($24.50). 20% above last Q, 25% above last year .
The WTI Bakken differential has widened a bit since last Q.
Refineries running at 95% (also a record in my book).
This is too good -
The CS in PADD V(west coast) is $40, more than double last years average. Pain at the pump.
Keep your fingers crossed.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Googled that name (colorado wealth management) - found a bank in Colorado that has "wealth management advise" (no caps), and a guy on SA who uses that handle.
I'm not particularly impressed.
For whatever reason 3 posters have been supplying lots of facts regarding ORC, and they all like to use the word "consider." All three write very coherent posts and two of them like to mention the "Colorado Wealth Management Fund," unfortunately, the CWMFund appears to be a "he" rather than a "the," and he has no Fund in the normally understood sense of the word.
So consider this, I bought at $8.55 yesterday.
ORC's latest message said the distribution was reduced due to higher repayments (CPR).
I've copied a paragraph from a SA article today AGNC regarding CPR in the 2nd quarter:
"Through research, I have determined a majority of AGNC's MBS holdings experienced modest (at times offsetting) conditional prepayment rate ("CPR") fluctuations during the second quarter of 2015. After an initial modest increase during April 2015, CPR rapidly reversed course during May and June 2015 as mortgage interest rates/long-term U.S. Treasury yields rapidly increased.”
Take the info for what you want, but seems like the market thinks ORC is full of s..t or they hold the absolutely wrong type of assets.
Manipulation - hardly.
Lack of confidence, lack of trust, and absolutely awful investor relations. There are better REIT's out there.
A surprise 22% cut in divi with no advance warning makes one wonder when the next shoe will fall.
The justification for the cut is very weak. June's repayment rate was better than in March, April, and May, so they have know about the problem for months. a
"he change in Realized CPR between May report and June report. It almost tripled" Not so.
Jan to March it did almost double.
CRP for the last year
June 30 11.98% q2 average 13.66%
May 29 13.59%
April 31 15.42%
March 31 15.15% q1 average 11.14%
Feb 27 10.60%
Jan 30 7.67%
Dec 30, ’14 10.53% q4 average 8.61%
Nov 28 7.12%
Oct 31 8.20%
Sept 30 9.81% q3 average 10.47%
Aug 29 11.67%
July 31 9.93%
The $$ received in the prepayment have to be reinvested and I guess the new spreads aren't as great as the old spreads for the properties ORC held - although I haven't seen a 22% lowering of the spread, if fact just the opposite in the treasury market.
Or maybe lower the distribution in increments - of 5% rather than a whopping 22%. Really makes it look like things ain't right in Roma
I would like to know what caused the rate of prepayment to have surged so much that they had to lower the distribution by 22%. I haven't noticed any wild interest swings that would cause homeowners to prepay.
Did anyone see the current rate of prepayments in those distribution notice figures?