nice math gracie, may be on the money, but talk of a secondary as a fact -- better slow down.
As far as whether the stock will be a dilution or from company holdings, the following news flash from Nov 2012 my have some bearing:
Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp Announces Share Repurchase Program
Monday, 19 Nov 2012 08:00am EST
Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to 2.4 million shares of its common stock through December 31, 2013. "
Where is this "too high too fast."
The long rates haven't jumped at all since the mini-taper. The 30yr is lower now than last month. It's the 3yr and 5yr that have done the jumping, and those two don't directly apply to WMC borrowing costs or mortgage rates.
I don't think that WMC can create new shares to cover the dividend, but must use shares they hold. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
I have been reading posts stating that the distribution policy will not change without shareholder approval or that the distribution is a fixed percentage of the profits - this is WRONG. The GP determines the distribution at their discretion.
"The board of directors of our general partner may modify or revoke our distribution policy at any time at its discretion. Our partnership agreement does not require us to pay any
distributions at all....The board of directors of our general partner will adopt a distribution policy pursuant to which we will distribute an amount equal to the available cash we generate each quarter. However, the board may change such policy at any time at its discretion and could elect not to pay distributions for one or more quarters."
From the prospectus.
NTI should outperform its peers in 4Q
40% of NTI's feedstock is Bakken.
The spread between Bakken and WTI is the largest I've ever seen it.
Differential between WTI and Bakken
The spreads between the other components of NTI’s feedstock mix and WTI are equally impressive and positive for 4q13 earnings.
And the price of gasoline in NTi's region has been on the rise since Nov 15.
The refinery was down for 2 weeks at the beginning of Q4.
My guess is the distribution will be north of $0.45.
Both have their own retail outlets, both sell candy bars, but both don't use the same oil (NTI's is much cheaper) or sell in the same region
"Through Alon Brands, we operate more than 300 7-Eleven convenience stores...."
According to a real estate talking head Thursday on CNBC, commercial property (warehouses) is where the action is in the real estate market.
It was noted in the WMC CC that they have a toe in that market and are looking to increase the position.
WMC is consistently ahead of the curve-
Just huge - today's relative spreads
WCS/WTI almost doubled y/y
Snyacrude almost doubled y/y
Bakken spread (44% of refinery input as of 4/13) had fallen more than 50% y/y
as has the PADD II crack with WTI as an input (Bakken spread just shot up as the cs creeps up).
My prediction - Q3 '13 distribution will be 1/2 of Q3 '12 - $0.60 to $0.70.
Gasoline (etc) prices in PADDII fell over most of Q3 relative to Q2.
So one component of the relevant crack spread shrank (got any idea what the refinery product mix is?) .
And the WCS, Synacrude, and Bakken differentials with WTI closed.
Thank goodness production is up.
I've tried to figure the change in the refinery's cs q/q , but my figures are guesswork - educated guesswork, but still guesswork.
In September I had reason to hope for a Q3 $1 distribution,
Unfortunately, shrinking differentials and lowered product pricing have cooled my jets - s
My guess, same distribution as q2..
Q4 looks much better -
gasoline prices have risen as has the differential - huge differential y/y with both WCS and synacrude and Bakken is w/i 10% of last years.
The house republicans sent their bills to the senate where they were voted down.
The senate sent their bills to the house, where they were not allowed to be voted on.
That republican action is very similar to the actions taken in many "developing" countries: remove opposition candidates from the ballot so as to not chance a ballot box defeat of the current rulers.
To fund or not fund a government program is part of a budget bill, not part of a "pay-day loan".
Increasing the "debt ceiling" to meet prior commitments has nothing to do with potential commitments - they are part of a budget bill.
Be patient, is that so hard. Wait for an election and vote -- oh right, Obama won that election as did the Affordable Care Act.
by the way, I don't think anyone is spending a lot more money yet .
In the update for the refinery fire that mentioned that q3 throughput, estimated at 91-95k/day is now estimated to be 78-81k b/d - 14 % lower. The fire occurred 8 days before the quarter's end.
it was reported on another NTI board that the fire will only affect an asphalt production unit.
I have worried about some non-accidental incident since short interest reached 10%.