Those dots are way too fantasy-like for me, but the price has improved on some volume.
Anything can happen, I guess, but I just keep an eye on this looking for it to drop to sub 50 cents so I can take a long until the next announcement, or until there is one to short into. Hasn't done either for quite some time so I'm losing faith. This used to be pretty predicable and i made some quick pocket money by buying when it backed off severely and selling into the next announcement, which was usually quite soon after tanking. Just hasn't been cooperating for quite some time. Oh well
Tradition would dictate $4. Been posting since the reverse that the typical trend is for the price to revert to its pre-reverse value within a year or two..Then disappear.
This one has better than halved itself in record time, so I'd expect $4 within a month or so.
Then it will collapse to zero in a year or two.
If it's any consolation there were a couple of periods of heavy buying today sub $40, especially sub $40 at days end. Could have been short covering, but I doubt it.
If the indexes tank again tomorrow all bets are off.
Absent a major turnaround in the indexes it'll probably trade back to the secondary price. Simply buyers of the secondary salvaging what's left of their quick gains.
The real interesting action will occur at $24. Will they support or panic?
True blacky, their balance sheet is good, and at present there's no going concern issue...assuming their projections for a 30 cent loss are accurate, which i don't buy. That number just doesn't square with the revenue haircut.
The issue here though has to do with the cockroach theory that goes, "if you find a cockroach in your kitchen and kill it, your problems aren't over. There are always more cockroaches, never just one". Companies as well. tend to release bad news only in the amounts they're absolutely required to. The first release is hardly ever the last. It's typically the tip of the iceberg.
And with these guys cockroach style reverse I'm not buying a word they say and doubt their customers are either. We'll see. Planning to hold my short until $4's or late May whichever comes first.
"History will not repeat". Sounds like the DC gang saying "yeh, we're doing the same thing that got us in trouble a dozen times. but this time it'll be different". This is indeed a bit different, but don't discount history. There are no guarantees and money chases trends.
No. All these that are priced on "maybe" are subject to wild swings. Look at what happened last year.
I see teens again. The underwriters dumped their stock on their customers who saw a quick profit and are now locking those profits in.
History tends to repeat.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Posted yesterday that it'd close at day's low and go into a downward drift until it halves itself again in a month or so. And then a slower drift to obscurity. Next big announcement will be "we're exploring strategic alternatives". That's a euphemism for we're out of business. Just like "we're doing a reverse to increase shareholder value".
Virtually no company can take a 30% top line haircut and survive. Ask yourself if you were buying from them could you continue to? Imagine having to walk into the bosses office 6 months or a year from now having to say you stayed with them after this and they're now closing shop. The world just doesn't work that way.
I've been posting repeatedly since the reverse that reverses are the kiss of death. Obviously you don't do much studying.
So here's part two of the death ritual. It'll close on one side or the other of today's low, and then go into a slower, but steadier death spiral until it halves itself again. May take until as late as May to happen but it's a virtual guarantee that it won't be above $5 by May's end.
Watch and learn
You nailed it. The quick hitters are moving on. By tomorrow they'll be gone and sellers won't find buyers above $8
It can't. Losing 1/3 of your business in one announcement will chase others to the doors. And let's face it, these guys aren't terribly familiar with the truth so you can bet there'll be more announcements coming when they reach the point where they can't hide them anymore. This is but the tip of the iceberg.
They knew this when the did the reverse to avoid delisting, like delisting matters. If i were them I wouldn't want my stock price out in the open.
Easiest money to be made in these markets and these guys may set a record for getting the post reverse price back to the pre-reverse price.
But don't worry, once the price hits $4 they'll do another 5 or 1 reverse. Stock will be back to $20 so fast no one will notice what happened.
Pump it up, do a secondary, let it fall. Just play it for what it is. Really surprised it ran like it did after this last secondary though. Thought it'd crash much sooner
Thank you, finally someone with common sense. Market cap is $2.5 billion based on virtually nothing but wishful thinking.
I shorted at $30 expecting a repeat of their last secondary when it went to $10. Awaiting another negative announcement like they had last time shortly after the secondary. They are good at story telling and raising money though.
You named one, congratulations. Of course priceline did go from $1000 a share, post reverse to what $10 in the early 2000's and it's back to $1000 today. Arguably, the best riches to rags to riches story of all time. But kudos for remembering.
If SONs follows that path, it'll move to from $20 to 2 cents before ascending back to $20. Doubt that, but it's an interesting comparison. I'm staying short until single digits. No sense holding out for the pennies.
Can anyone point out a company whose stock price was higher a year after a reverse? Most are trading back at their pre-reverse price a year or two later and out of business by year 5.
The only reasons they do reverses is to avoid delisting or to artificially ramp up the EPS. Or to be cynical, so their friends can jump on the short bandwagon.
It's that simple and that's why these losers are the easiest shorts on the planet.