' even with higher production it did not cover what we don't import is what I am trying to say" - That may be true fp71 but doesn't mean that production can't cover the lost imports, in case any may question production capabilities albeit at a higher NG price as you point out. The higher NG goes the more the gas will flow then we can read the next page without even turning it. GL
Yea wouldn't surprise me to see NG go higher either. Very big barrier at 4.15 as I see it but not much seems to be getting in the way of higher NG at the moment. Am still going to scale into DGAZ moving forward even though the cold temps are reaching to a very large area of the country and more importantly for an extended period. Don't know where the top is but we are closer than pre injection/withdrawl report. Freeze-offs, I think can be planned for and managed. Kind of like a little isopropyl alcohol in the gas tank prior. Nevertheless a small amount of production is bound to be lost due to harsh operating conditions. The resulting higher NG price may initiate more spigots to open overall though making any production loss because of freeze offs moot. Any higher am going to have to buy some UGAZ for a hedge till later December to ease some of the pain. GL
Am scaling in on some DGAZ now. Thinking some profit taking bound to happen with NG @4.13 ish. Colud be wrong as I never thought it would see 4.10 this early. We see. - single digits at night here and planning to get the sleds out this weekend to burn up more than my share of the oil and gas stock. Mine gets about 10 mpg in this deeper snow. It's only money.
Loaded some DGAZ here at NG=3.99. Early maybe but Looking for NG = 3.70 soon. Could reach NG=4.10 plus but thinking not on this run.
Early View EIA Gas Storage Estimates (15) for the 11/21/13 report (in Bcf): -31; -27; 2-7; -26; -41; -30; -43; -27; -32; -40; -32; -27; -40;
-35; and -25 Bcf.
EARLY VIEW Average: -32.2 Bcf
EARLY VIEW Median: -31 Bcf
EARLY VIEW Range: -25 to -43 Bcf
Standard Deviation: 6.1 (last week SD: 9.2)
Last Year/Same Week: -36 Bcf
5 Year Avg./Same Week: -2 Bcf
Current Storage Level: 3,834 Bcf
Last year, same week: 3,914 Bcf (-80)
5 Year Avg./same Week: 3,722 Bcf (+58)
Shorts stirring. 70% shorts volume yesterday with total volume at about 15 million. Highest short action in two weeks trading.
Not short and have been long a couple of years. Just saying that two quarters in a row of one dollar plus earnings and a stock price of less than three dollars warrants further study. I've done my DD and will stay long but not because I think ALSK is or can produce over a dollar EPS/quarter. It just aint so.
We all need to drill down a little further and determine what earnings would be without the Preferred earnings from the AWN deal. They will be much less going forward.
Breaking out on earnings report. More like FTR now. Wireline and broadband company. OK a miniture FTR with no dividend which happens to show on the bottom line. Wireless profits do contribute to earnings via their wireless holdings. Take a look! Oh and good quarter for FTR. Love this stock, has been nothing but a winner for me. Not much here for the shorts.
On aug 8th, NG touched an August low of 3.13. UGaz touched a low of 11.99. Today Ugaz at 11.99 = NG at 3.42. If NG goes to 3.13 once again UGAZ will be about 8.99 , another 3 bucks. Contango and fees, ouch!
Ha! Now save some of those GASX $ for that 4.50/gallon fuel @ the Hoop and Holler there on Gogebic. Those ditch pickles are a hungry breed of cat.
Thanks for the posts everywhere. You're a machine. Like Elaine, she been at it for awhile. Have learned much from you. GL
Good day, sold Dgaz @16.22 $ 16.40. Have 10% position left. Tried to buy UGAZ @ 13 today and came within 2cents. Have larger order at 12.50. Think I will get filled next week. If not that's OK. Would rather get in when I feel the trend is up, right now not so sure. Coal did good this week. Have much. Now looking to enter oil long. We see. GL all.
' there is another thought out here that the producers can keep production in check and demand (if it ever gets cold) could spike. a perfect storm for gas prices to get squeezed hard.'
Since producers get paid when then they get NG out of the well it would seem they would be inclined to do so. Adding to that thought, high Nuke production at present, milder weather till mid Nov., 0- 2bcf/day of additional infrastructure in the NE and less incentive for coal to gas at 3.60 NG and one might argue the perfect storm points to the downside in the short term.
Ah just got online, back from building deer stands and see I offed some DGAZ at 14 and nickels. Will sell more at NG = 3.57 then 3.50 and final @3.35. That's the plan anyway. Maybe load some UGAZ somewhere along the way. Out of oil till 100. Then maybe short again.GL. Watching JO, lots of coal.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
10/15/2013 596,166 422,567 1.410820
9/30/2013 343,455 486,446 1.000000
9/13/2013 426,061 1,010,906 1.000000
8/30/2013 435,365 816,066 1.000000
8/15/2013 555,352 2,653,217 1.000000
7/31/2013 313,759 1,893,513 1.000000
7/15/2013 165,079 223,738 1.000000
6/28/2013 192,635 196,981 1.000000
6/14/2013 206,161 674,568 1.000000
5/31/2013 192,666 361,751 1.000000
5/15/2013 230,673 391,345 1.000000
4/30/2013 217,991 152,764 1.426979
4/15/2013 508,096 225,290 2.255298
3/28/2013 298,260 192,130 1.552386
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alsk/short-interest#ixzz2ihaRx5Fh
On a chart the move today didn't look all that bull but maybe combined with Friday it will. Will see. The move on Oct. 7th. Now that looks like a bullish move with conviction when volume is considered. I say chop sideways to lower.
Last dividend was Sept. 26th, 2012. It was .05 cents/quarter. They had paid a dividend for some 5 years prior at 21.5 cents/ quarter. Debt got to high and people started dropping their landline so ALSK has had to reinvent itself. Dividend may come again once cash flows solidify, and revenue from broadband offerings increase, debt is reduced more, revs from wireless and roaming are more visible.
Well since this post ( Oct. 10th) NG moved from 3.74 - 3.85 then lower to where we are now. Still hear some talking 5.60, 6.00, 6.40. I don't know about that. Took off some Dgaz at 14.40. Hated to cause am still looking for 3.50 then 3.35. Have 2/3 left with stops in to insure some profit but hoping and praying to stop out. Could be wrong but will get more chances at these levels I think. (ng= 3.60). Target buy on Ugaz =13.50 for starters. If not will trade more oil been doing good short there. Trade it your way.