Yea a little surprised although I was 1 of 6 of 33 total who thought 101-105 for this week. The rest were lower none higher. Have been hearing all week that demand was back and market tighter. Guess not. Still bearish with about 2/5ths left. Targeting 3.80 NG but will see if/when we get there. Going to Vegas Sun-Thurs. for a little mind clearing. GL
Works for me. My eyes are not that good anyway where xtra pixels matter much. Watch my neighbors TV 1/2 block away. Thing is bigger than a full moon. A speaker stand, popcorn and some hot pie, it would be like old times at the drive in. Cornings" getting ur done.
Appears to be mostly about demand. The heat either shows up in the large consuming states or not. Right now Texas and the NE seem to be running cooler. My channel top is at NG=4.43 and the bottom is at 4.26 . Since we already breached the bottom a large injection looks like NG could go lower. Who knows again I say it about demand for cooling. Production is there. Pit close may see some short covering today, should be a tell. COT report also may give a tell but that is last weeks action as you know.
Obviously these will adjust going forward: EIA markets on ICE:
7/4: 86/89 (trades 86)
Have a good 4th
Hey Billy. What happened to the conversation from the other day we were having, it seems to have vanished from the Message boards. Do you show the same mystery? Just wondering.
Yes I keep a stop in place. I am rarely disappointed. I keep them more liberal at times because as you know these 3x's move quite a bit. I change them daily whether I am averaging or not.
Yes I plan on staying short through the report this week. The decision to be long or short is an ever changing battle as you know. I am thinking another triple digit injection this week and momentum may cover my short this week but who knows. Weather always a factor, I am looking for demand as the key going forward. Last Saturday was the biggest production day on record according to Bentek so supply is there but powerburn(demand) will tell us how much we fill. Hydro,wind,solar,nukes coal, and NG all supply the demand. The question is what is the demand and how much is being supplied by other than NG.A lot is going in the tank. We will know more as the warmer weather comes then the amount of substitution becomes more evident. GL
06/05/13..(05/31/13)............103.....111..........................8 BCF miss....(+2.3 BCF Prod...+3.3.BCF East...+1.7 BCF West)....(A generic miss... EIA number looks correct)
Doing OK Billy, own DGAZ currently at 2.76 to 3.04. Always keep stops in place.
First column is model, second column is EIA actual.
Numbers are the same just a different interpretation of weeks.
same week last yr: 94
5-yr avg: 81
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is 103 bcf
Hey Billy, was just reading your post and from the second paragraph noticing your numbers. This is a copy and paste from what I saw earlier today. Just for your info.
Sara Sara Sara. The chant for 2015 and beyond. A few wins need to come soon for them to have much of an impact for the next fiscal report as the ramp is 90-120 days. Mr. Willis is all guy that's for sure. Very straightforward no BS easy to understand talk. It's amazing he came to Navarre, a distribution company with a great reputation for their reliability and quality but troubled in their model of business. Now only a couple of years has passed and the old Navarre that model which Mr. Willis was hired to grow is no longer a focus of his efforts. A huge transformation that begs the question, was it all part of the grand scheme of things. He seems quite comfortable telling " the story" of SPDC and these guys all barbeque in Texas.
I'm wondering if the sign and close day of NDS will yield warehouse services to the new buyer. I would hope so. I'm wondering if the new 800 lb. gorilla coming to the USA via an IPO this fall will have much effect on SPDC or not. Actually they could probably live off the crumbs of Alibaba supposedly bigger than Amazon and Ebay put together. We see. I know one thing, next time I see B/Drap selling I won't be far behind.
Albert Einstein is said to have called "the power of compound interest the most powerful force in the universe."
Not many technicians would short this stock at this time. It has been in an uptrend by most measures for the last six weeks. Fundies confirming. Earnings could say different. We see.
Appears producers are on track to meet at least minimum storage requirements with these robust injections. The media(CNBC) though is still pumping the price of NG higher even though the pace is set. They are doing us a big favor in that regard. Storage levels for NG get refilled on the backs of cheap coal and it's ability to provide the necessary power to the forward A/C demand. Wind and solar can't and will not get that done. Sorry to those who think otherwise but it just aint so.
Or is it possible that SPDC is finding a fair market price for all the business in the pipeline after the smackdown all the sheeple received, orchestrated by a crooked Wall Street broker who facilitated the placement and none other than Becker Drapkin, complete with news of a lawsuit and message board knuckle heads.
Nah, probably not, all including government are completely honest right?
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
5/15/2014 416,734 224,580 1.855615
4/30/2014 493,408 233,347 2.114482
4/15/2014 789,431 271,682 2.905717
3/31/2014 530,015 406,714 1.303164
3/14/2014 497,293 1,052,251 1.000000
2/28/2014 398,486 229,232 1.738352
2/14/2014 482,084 282,220 1.708185
1/31/2014 498,856 448,501 1.112274
1/15/2014 388,401 461,702 1.000000
12/31/2013 433,581 375,026 1.156136
12/13/2013 556,909 463,342
Gets all the daytraders attention as it pops up on daily scans as a big action move. Lots of new followers today anyway. Who knows?