The explanation given by Zacks for their downgrade is particularly strange in its timing and logic. It is almost like Zacks wants to cap any possible recovery in the stock price. VALE is very sensitive to the price of iron and there has been (perhaps a temporary) recovery to $50/tone in the last couple of days. By now all the analysts have capitulated and some even predicted that price of iron will drop below $40. As is often, when all the analysts finally capitulate on a cyclical stock that marks the bottom for the stock. Nevertheless, I believe that If iron drops below $40, VALE will drop below $5. Perhaps Vale's nickel operations will support the stock.
After all that has happened do you have any reason to believe that there will be significant sales to Lenovo?
There were 2 items advanced by Berger upon the acquisition of Enterasys :1) $30M synergy savings within a year and 2) 10% increase in sales via Lenovo within a year. The synergy has not manifested itself and sales to Lenovo are minimal. The analysts and investors that believed Berger have been sorely disappointed. Is Berger merely unfit for the job of a CEO, or is he simply a conning salesman? Perhaps both.
China is by far the largest importer and consumer of iron ore. However, Its consumption is thought to have peaked because construction has peaked and more scrap steel is becoming available in China. The iron ore surplus is expected to rise into 2018 as more production comes online. While Fortescue won't produce more than its current rate of 165 million tonnes a year, BHP is apparently still intent on lifting from 245 million tonnes to 290 million tonnes by mid 2017 and Rio to 360 million tonnes. Vale plans to expand from 340 million tonnes this year to 450 million tonnes by 2018. Roy Hill is on track to load its first shipment of ore for export in late 2015. The Roy Hill Project is a 55 million tonne being developed in West Australia’s Pilbara region. Even if the junior iron mining companies outside China close down, there will still be excess supply. The world can not use as all the excess supply that is coming online. Therefore, IMO, the price of iron will stay below $50/tonne for years to come. If Vale manages to get its breakeven (including freight) to below $40/tonne and if its 1/3 of operations that is not iron is profitable, Vale will be doing OK and the share price will rise to $10+.
"Reputation of quality and leading edge products"? Perhaps, but why have the sales been languishing? Why are the insiders loath of accumulating the stock? Why isn't HLIT getting much analyst following despite claiming for years now to be "the worldwide leader in video delivery infrastructure"? Is this claim patently false? Is being "the worldwide leader in video delivery infrastructure" not necessarily tantamount to being much profitable?
And the most damaging review:
"Combining two companies (acquisition of Enterasys) is problematic. The tough decisions are not being made. The CEO is the weak link. He is not "all in" and does not have the mid-cap experience needed. He does not understand Extreme's business and is an embarrassment in front of customers.
Advice to Management
Advice to the Board of Directors, Replace the CEO immediately."
From the glassdoor website.
"Acquisition of Enterasys has taken much longer and has been rocky internally. To much us against them, need to get products integrated and kill others to get some economies of the combined company. Too much patting ourselves on the back that our products are the greatest where we have a lot of work to do across the lines."
"Over management is a huge problem. In my position I have 7 bosses who often contradict each other. They're also big on wasting time. The ISR team has weekly calls that don't amount to anything. The field only has a small grasp on what is happening with their customers and that information only barely gets passed onto the Inside team. There's a big power struggle going on right now between the old Extreme and old Enterasys folks to see who gets to run the show. With Jeff White coming in and bringing a bunch of his Cisco buddies with him it looks like it's just going to be a Cisco 2.0 if the upgrade were smaller and didn't adequeatly know how to sell things. As an ISR you also won't actually be selling anything. You'll be more of a glorified secretary for the overworked field. Your comp plan is also tied to the field sales so basically you're getting paid (very little) commission from a quota you don't have any control over."
"Had great hopes for the company until the Enterasys acquisition. Way too many politics with clueless managers and VP's from legacy Enterasys taking over. In exchange for keeping all of the legacy Extreme executive staff, they decided to replace all of the directors and manager levels with Enterasys folks. A lot of talented individuals left the company or were laid off. Huge culture clash between East and West coast offices. Tons of nepotism from Enterasys managers keeping "their" people, and not the most qualified"
Berger has now solidly established himself as unreliable deceptive and unfit for the job at hand. The departure of his hyped chief revenue officer was the last straw. Most of the analysts following Extreme have already capitulated and downgraded EXTR to Hold or Neutral. In the last decade, Extreme has had 5 CEOs, none has put Extreme in a dire financial situation as Berger did. As I said in the past, I believe that Berger is the final CEO for EXTR before it is sold.
Analysts at Wunderlich downgraded Extreme Networks (NASDAQ: EXTR) from Buy to Hold. The price target for Extreme Networks has been lowered from $6 to $2.80.
Needham & Company downgraded Extreme Networks (NASDAQ: EXTR) from Buy to Hold following the company's Q3 warning.
Analyst Alex Henderson commented, "Extreme beat us to the punch line. We have been getting increasingly concerned about Extreme for several months and have issued several cautious notes -- after the close Extreme pre-released negative results. Extreme is perhaps the most exposed of any company in our coverage to the Euro exchange rate swings. It has 39% of 2014 revenues from Europe. Even without currency issues it has been struggling to get any growth, and restructuring improvements and cross-selling have been almost fruitless. We were already becoming more negative on the name, and now we capitulate and downgrade to Hold."
The firm cut FY 2015 EPS from $0.08 to $0.07 and FY 2016 EPS from $0.26 to $0.21.
At first step, Berger's lavish compensation should be cut in a half to what is befitting a company with a negative shareholder equity and a market cap of only $240M. It is time for a new and final strategic alternative. The last strategic alternative, i.e. the acquisition of Enterasys, appears to be driving Extreme into insolvency.
My mistake. Extreme's revenues are actually contracting and it has negative earnings.
Another Berger's false promise. Let's go back to Oct 1 2014 when Jeff White was hired to solve Extreme's faltering revenues.
"Jeff's proven success in leading global organizations to capture market share will be instrumental in driving Extreme's growth strategy," said Chuck Berger, president and CEO of Extreme Networks. "Jeff's addition to our team further demonstrates our commitment and ability to attract the very best talent to Extreme. His career has been highlighted by numerous accomplishments, having nurtured strategic customer relationships within both the enterprise and service provider markets."
"Extreme Networks offers a unique opportunity, as the company is providing its customers with the most innovative networking technology, completely changing the way we think about network infrastructure and connectivity," said White. "Extreme Networks unique position as a well-established, resourced Silicon Valley-based company combined with the capability to function as a nimble, fast-growing entrepreneurial organization that can react quickly to market transitions and customer needs is invaluable as we move into our next phase."
Berger has destroyed Extreme with his acquisition of Enterasys and his poor management. His hand-picked "chief revenue officer" is "no longer with the company". The stock will be destroyed. There will be no more new CEOs for Extreme. The situation is as dim as it has ever been.
BMO Capital Downgrades Vale to Underperform, Lowers PT to $4.50. Charles Gross , Benzinga Staff Writer.
Arista Networks provides cloud networking solutions, a fast growing field. Arista's stock price is quite inflated while Extreme's stock is fairly priced. This is because Arista's revenues grow at 25% clip while Extreme's revenues are stagnant. Note that management's compensation at Extreme is much higher than in Arista...
SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, April 9 (Reuters) - China has moved to prop up its struggling iron ore industry by slashing taxes, potentially expanding a global glut and undermining a strategy by mega miners to drive out high-cost competitors.
Brazil's Vale and Australian miners Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have sought to drive out higher cost and less efficient miners in China, to make way for a flood of new production.
But China's cabinet said on Wednesday that it would cut the tax it collects from domestic iron ore producers by half to 40 percent of the base rate from May 1, acting to help miners that have been chalking up losses as global prices plummet.
"Providing this tax subsidy means the Chinese miners will continue to produce. If that is the case, the strategy of the top three suppliers of pushing high-cost Chinese supply out of business will not work," said Helen Lau, mining analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.