You are overly pessimistic. The dam disaster is not comparable in magnitude and duration to the BP disaster. VALE will move with the price of iron and Nickel. The dam disaster might cost Vale $1B in total and some loss of reputation.
6:27 am BHP Billiton reported an update related to the Samarco Fundao dam (BHP) :
Co noted the range of media reports and public commentary on the composition of the tailings released from the Samarco Fundo dam, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The tailings that entered the Rio Doce were comprised of clay and silt material from the washing and processing of earth containing iron ore, which is naturally abundant in the region.
Based on available data, the tailings are chemically stable. They will not change chemical composition in water and will behave in the environment like normal soils in the catchment.The National Water Agency and Brazilian Geological Service are continuing to collect, analyse and report water and sediment samples in the Rio Doce. Results from the samples on indicate "that concentrations of metals obtained at these sites do not significantly differ from the results produced by CPRM in 2010.
Samarco has issued a statement indicating that further tests carried out by SGS GEOSOL Laboratrios after the incident confirm the waste from the Fundo dam is not hazardous to human health.
So what about Vale?
As long as the price of oil and cost of seaborne freight remain subdued, Vale should still make money on iron even at $38. The BRL to USD exchange rate has actually improved in the last couple of months from over 4:1 to 3.71:1. There should be no non-cash foreign currency losses. However, Vale lost last quarter a large amount on various derivatives, mostly related to fuel. The base metal business of Vale will be at best at breakeven. The dam disaster might cost Vale close to $1B.
VALE will probably drift down toward $3.5 as the price of iron drifts lower toward $40. RIO and BHP will do no better. Eventually, the shareholders of RIO, BHP, and VALE will demand production cuts.
Iron ore sank to the lowest level in at least six years amid speculation that mills in China are cutting back steel output, hurting demand for the raw material while supplies from the biggest miners expand.
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao fell 1.9 percent to $43.89 a dry metric ton, the lowest in daily data dating back to May 2009, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The commodity is headed for a third annual retreat, and Tuesday’s fall eclipsed the previous low of $44.59 set in July.
For “low-cost producers, it makes sense for them to continue to increase production,” Ivan Szpakowski, a commodities strategist at Citigroup Inc., said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday, referring to the largest miners. “They’re still profitable.”
Iron ore has been battered this year by rising output from the world’s biggest miners including BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA and faltering demand for steel in China, where mills account for half of global output. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last week that the global iron ore market is oversupplied, with steel consumption in China remaining weak. Policy makers in Asia’s largest economy have been attempting to steer the economy towards consumer-led growth and services.
“The market has underestimated the demand destruction from the economic rebalancing in China,” Zhang Yifan, head of foreign exchange and commodities at Guotai Junan Securities Co., said on Tuesday before the price data were released. “The worst is still ahead for the ferrous industry.”
The steel industry in China is reaching a critical point, according to Andy Xie, an independent economist who’s been bearish on iron ore prices for years and sees a drop below $40 before year-end. Mills will have to cut production, said Xie, a former Asia-Pacific chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
Seaborne iron ore prices will remain on a downtrend over the next two years, declining to the $40/dmt CFR China level in 2017, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a note Thursday.
“We expect prices to decline… to $44/dmt [CFR China] next year and $40/dmt in 2017,” Goldman analysts said.
The Platts 62% Fe Iron Ore Index, or IODEX, was assessed at $45.30/dmt CFR North China Thursday, relatively close to Goldman’s 2016 forecast.
Goldman said the iron ore market is still “oversupplied” and “prices must overshoot relative to marginal production costs in order to trigger mine closures on a sufficient scale.”
It expects the “divergence between production capacity and demand to continue” as global ore supply is not showing signs of any cutbacks.
The collapse of an iron ore tailings dam at Samarco’s operations at Minas Gerais in Brazil a fortnight ago, with an estimated loss of approximately 2% of seaborne supply, has not had a significant impact on the supply glut.
With two major iron ore developments — Roy Hill in Western Australia and Vale’s S11D development in Brazil — due to commence operations in the next 12 months and China’s steel consumption remaining lackluster, Goldman sees little upside in the fundamentals.
Buying appetite for iron ore, a core steelmaking raw material, is significantly impacted by steel demand at the downstream, as well as steel production levels in China, which is the world’s largest consumer of ore material.
“In the medium to long term, we expect Chinese steel production to contract significantly… [T]he downward momentum in Chinese steel prices continues and profit margins among steel mills appear unsustainable,” the bank said.
VALE is down today while RIO and BHP are up. I believe that the reason for it is the deteriorating Nickel price.
No, I have had no doubts that the deal would close. The doubts I have are about the eventual price that Atmel's shareholders will realize.
Nickel dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade amid slowing stainless-steel production in China as Asia’s largest economy faces the weakest growth in a generation.
Chinese output of stainless steel found in everything from washing machines to door frames slumped for four straight months through September to the lowest since February. Production was down 11 percent from May, data from Antaike Information Development Co. show.
Nickel declined 1.4 percent to settle at $8,980 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the lowest since August 2003. Prices have plunged 41 percent this year, set for the biggest annual drop since the global financial crisis in 2008, amid a widespread rout in raw-material prices caused by the slowdown in China.
President Xi Jinping is steering the economy away from state investment to a model driven by consumer demand and services, hurting prices of everything from iron ore to copper and lead. Nickel supply will exceed demand by 26,000 tons this year as China falters, according to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co.
“The China market is much better supplied than anyone expected,” John Davies, head of commodities research at BMI Research, said in an interview in Singapore. “Nickel demand is mostly from the steel sector and steel production has been weak. That’s helping keep the market much better supplied.”
Prices reached a record $51,800 in May 2007 as supply couldn’t match demand from China. Nickel has plunged since then as slower growth damped demand and the country boosted nickel pig iron output, an alternative to the refined metal.
These outlooks are given by Harmonic's employees on the Glassdoor website. Interestingly, all the employees are very satisfied with the perks they are given like time off, free food and drinks, parties, etc. The reviews give the impression that Harmonic's employees are spoiled while the company's resources are poorly managed. Considering the performance of HLIT, this situation should not continue. Harshman has to go!
By RIO, BHP, and VALE. For example, 90% of RIO's profits are from iron and RIO is richly priced considering its forward P/E and book value.
Iron ore was down 4.5% to $US45.58 a ton today. For Vale, nickel and copper are also doing very poorly. Add to it the recent dam disaster, and it is as bearish for Vale as it has ever been. Unlike BHP and RIO, VALE is already trading at TANGIBLE book value but this value is a declining target.
A new 52-week low on the close with higher than average volume. What is next for this maligned stock? A new ten-year low? The ten-year low was $3.76 on 7/25/12.
Harshman must go!
The cost of the project is $14B+.
The following was written a week ago:
"Brazil miner and iron ore producer Vale has reduced the amount of money it expects to spend at its S11D project, the company’s largest iron ore initiative, to $14.4 billion.
Initially, Vale thought it could spend $19.7 billion in the project, but it has then downgraded its forecast to $16.4 and more recently to $14.4 billion. The change is due to the weakening of the BRL over the US, since most of the company’s costs are in BRL.
Vale presented its new estimate for the project this week to investors visiting the mine, which is located in Brazil’s Carajás region, in the state of Para. The company said it expects to spend, out of the total $14.4 billion budget it plans for the initiative, $7.9 billion in logistics for iron ore.
In the presentation, Vale said it already spent $8.4 billion in the project, whose amount should increase up to $9.4 billion by the end of 2015.
Vale’s S11D project will add 90 million mt/year to Brazil’s iron ore capacity."
My calculation shows that with iron at $40, the project will pay off in 20 years at the earliest. (90M tons per year at a cost of $30/ton at China, and including interest expense on the debt assumed for the project.)
I said that the goodwill is included in the book value, always. In the case of AA it is a large percentage of its book value. Do you understand that goodwill is not always valuable? This is why the TANGIBLE book value (which does not include the goodwill) is the more important value.
AA has 5.443 billion dollars in goodwill which is included in the book value. Do you understand the concept of goodwill? Tangible book value is the more important value for a company like AA. If AA does badly for a long duration, it will impair that goodwill.
The stock will trade below $4. At some point, investor pressure at VALE, BHP, and RIO will force their managements to curtail iron production. RIO will likely be the last to stand fast and win the market share battle.