Dilma will be likely elected again as the Brazilian president. She is not market-friendly. The market does not like it and all Brazilian stocks are sharply down. Hope that she does not nationalize VALE or increase taxes on it.
Speculators are selling their shares to new speculators. The chart indicates that ABX is not an investment-grade company. Panic selling? I don't think so. The volume is average. It moves with the price of gold, and now funds are window- dressing their end-of-quarter portfolios by selling their losers.
My selling price target is a moving target as I typically sell in increments of 10-20%. In the case of TRIB my upper PT was $30. It still is but I may update it lower depending on the next couple of quarterly results. If the results lag the estimates, and the Premier reagent revenues are light, I'll be losing my confidence in TRIB's management. I've been investing in TRIB for over a decade and I still recall the many years when this MB was full of deriding comments about TRIB and its management.
Back to where it was in July 2013. IMO, the slipping timetable for Troponin is a major reason for the stock action but also the weak earnings reports in th last 2 quarters. Also, it appears that small cap stocks, especially with high p/e, are being sold off as early victims to impending market correction.. I sold most of my TRIB holdings in the twenties and I currently hold only 1000 shares (thus reserving the right to post here). If it gets to $15, I'll add.
Your expectations may or may not come true but your message is essentially wishful thinking. The fact is that long term investors in this company have fared very poorly. May I ask, how long have you been holding the stock?
The track record of Deutche Bank is not good.
On Oct 2 2013 (a year ago), Deutsche Bank upgraded the rating on Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) from Hold to Buy, and raised the price target from $20.00 to $30.00.
In the report, Deutsche Bank noted, “Our lone upgrade is Barrick, which we raise to Buy from Hold, as we take ‘on faith' management's follow-through to respond to corporate governance concerns, cut costs, slim its portfolio and clear a path to free cash flow.”
The tangible book value is about $2/ sh, and it is dropping by about $0.25 every quarter due to ongoing GAAP losses. In the case of liquidation, assets will be sold in a fire sale, and there will be costs for severances and other obligations. If the company is liquidated in this quarter, the shareholders will get about $1/ sh. If the company is sold, it might still fetch $4/ sh. Even if the 100G products sell well, Oclaro (a diminished company after its restructuring with a share count now approaching 110M) will earn at best no more than 5 cents per quarter sometimes late in 2016. It is best for the shareholders that Oclaro is put for sale now. Based on its leadership in 100G components it might find a buyer now. The problem is that the management interests are not always alligned with the investors' interests.
From the today's release:
"Following the receipt of CE Marking, we will immediately commence our marketing efforts in Europe, whilst at the same time preparing for FDA submission. Given that most of the CE Mark data was already generated in the USA, it will now be augmented with additional USA trial data, with a view to submitting to the FDA by the end of quarter 1, 2015. BNP approval is anticipated during quarter 3, 2015 which is expected to coincide with FDA approval of our Troponin product, thus giving us the vital menu components for a product launch in the US, where the bulk of the cardiac point-of-care market resides."
From the last earnings release on July 29:
"During the quarter, significant progress has been made in completing the development of our Meritas BNP product for detection of heart failure. The clinical trials necessary to obtain CE marking are virtually complete and we expect to submit for CE clearance during the month of August. This will be immediately followed by the commencement of US clinical trials, with FDA submission expected before the end of 2014. Meanwhile, development of our Meritas D-dimer product, a test for Pulmonary Embolism and DVT (deep vein thrombosis) is progressing very well and according to schedule."
If we are headed into global recession, as you claim, the stock market will crash because it is already due for a major correction after its great multi-year rise. What do you think will happen to VALE? Although it has already been sold off, it will join the market downwards thus reaching new lows.
And yet GS has a "conviction buy" on ABX with a PT of $18.5.
9/25/2014 HSBC Upgrade Neutral - Overweight
9/23/2014 Barclays Reiterated Rating Equal Weight $21.00 - $20.00
9/19/2014 Credit Suisse Reiterated Rating Neutral $22.00 - $20.00
9/16/2014 Zacks Reiterated Rating Neutral - Neutral $17.00
9/15/2014 HSBC Upgrade Underweight - Neutral
8/8/2014 CIBC Lower Price Target $23.00 - $22.00
8/8/2014 Goldman Sachs Reiterated Rating Buy - Conviction-Buy $22.00 - $18.49
8/7/2014 RBC Capital Boost Price Target Outperform $23.00 - $25.00
8/1/2014 Barclays Reiterated Rating Equal Weight $22.00 - $21.00
7/25/2014 HSBC Downgrade Neutral - Underweight
7/17/2014 Credit Suisse Boost Price Target $21.00 - $22.00
7/14/2014 Raymond James Boost Price Target $18.50 - $19.50
7/14/2014 Citigroup Inc. Reiterated Rating Buy $26.00 - $24.00
7/9/2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Set Price Target $16.00 - $17.00
7/9/2014 RBC Capital Lower Price Target Outperform $28.00 - $23.00
7/8/2014 Morgan Stanley Boost Price Target $20.00 - $20.50
5/5/2014 Credit Suisse Boost Price Target $20.00 - $21.00
4/29/2014 HSBC Upgrade Underweight - Neutral $17.00 - $18.00
Note that approvals in the USA are much more important than in Europe because the USA is "where the bulk of the cardiac point-of-care market resides".
Trinity Biotech obtains CE mark for its Meritas point-of-care BNP test (TRIB) : "Following the receipt of CE Marking, we will immediately commence our marketing efforts in Europe, whilst at the same time preparing for FDA submission. Given that most of the CE Mark data was already generated in the USA, it will now be augmented with additional USA trial data, with a view to submitting to the FDA by the end of quarter 1, 2015. BNP approval is anticipated during quarter 3, 2015 which is expected to coincide with FDA approval of our Troponin product, thus giving us the vital menu components for a product launch in the US, where the bulk of the cardiac point-of-care market resides."
"Too many good PR reports" were also in each of the previous 5 years. What really counts is that there have been too many bad earnings reports. One bad earnings report trounces many good PR reports.
The upgrade rationale was that GG is best positioned to weather the low gold price environment. IMO, this upgrade is not convincing enough.
VALE has too much net debt and too little free cash flow to buy back meaningful number of shares. The cash flow is not expected to improve much for the next couple of years. It should concentrate on sustaining the dividends and reducing the debt.
The meaning of this announcement is that there will be more capital expenses for that manufacturing expansion and therefore higher losses for the next quarter or two, dragging the stock down. Obviously, if Oclaro manages to sell its expanded 100G production at a good profit this will be good and eventually the stock will rise.
Date Firm Action Rating Price Target Details Share
9/23/2014 Credit Suisse Reiterated Rating Neutral $15.00 - $12.50
8/18/2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Reiterated Rating Overweight $19.50 - $20.50
8/11/2014 Zacks Reiterated Rating Neutral - Neutral $15.00
8/1/2014 Nomura Reiterated Rating Buy $31.00 - $20.00
7/24/2014 Jefferies Group Reiterated Rating Hold $13.00 - $15.50
7/8/2014 Barclays Upgrade Underweight - Equal Weight
6/30/2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Reiterated Rating Overweight $21.00 - $19.50
6/30/2014 Morgan Stanley Reiterated Rating Equal Weight $15.20
6/20/2014 Itau BBA Securities Downgrade Market Perform
6/11/2014 Morgan Stanley Downgrade Overweight - Equal Weight $15.20
5/9/2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Reiterated Rating Overweight $25.00 - $21.00
4/29/2014 Scotiabank Reiterated Rating Sector Perform
4/28/2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Reiterated Rating Overweight $25.00
4/10/2014 Canaccord Genuity Lower Price Target $19.00 - $18.50
2/5/2014 Morgan Stanley Upgrade Equal Weight - Overweight $18.00 - $17.50
1/10/2014 Jefferies Group Initiated Coverage Hold $15.00
In a report published Tuesday, Credit Suisse analyst Ivano Westin reiterated a Neutral rating on Vale SA (NYSE: VALE), but lowered the price target from $15.00 to $12.50.
In the report, Credit Suisse noted, “Our base-case scenario assumes an oversupply of iron ore for a longer period, reflecting lower prices than currently forecasted by consensus estimates for Vale. We cap our annual average iron ore forecast at USD 85/t until YE2015, USD 84/t in 2016 and USD 90/t in 2017; our revised Ebitda and P/E for those years are USD 14.4bn, USD15.3bn, USD18.8bn and 10.9x, 10.7x, and 7.2x, respectively, putting our Ebitda estimates ~17% below Bloomberg consensus. Our base case includes a royalty increase to 4% as of 1Q16 (from 2H15), which we believe is fairly priced in. The Special Participation Tax (SPT) is not in our base case, although we do not rule it out. We maintain a Neutral rating on the name and decrease our target price to US$ 12.5/ADR from US$ 15/ADR.”
No way. VALE did not drop below $10 even when the iron ore price was 60% below its current price and the tangible book value of VALE was half of its present $7+.