That's right. It will take a generation for the stock to double.... And yes, definitely higher dividend than the measly 20 cents...
1. You are right about the growth rate based on 0.48 to 0.58. I was wrong.
2. You are wrong about the tangible book value.
For June 30 2015 from the recent SEC Form 6-K:
Goodwill and intangible assets:$152.3 M
Total equity: $205.06M
ADR share count: 23.2 M. ADR share count diluted: 28.8 M
Book value based on 23.2M shares: 205.06 / 23.2 = $8.83
Tangible book: (205.06 - 152.3) / 23.2 = $2.27
3. Earnings history and estimated future for 2012-2016: $0.77, 0.44, 0.73, 0.48, 0.58. (Non-GAAAP). Is TRIB a growth company? Depends how you calculate it and how you prognosticate its future.
4. Do your EBITDA data indicate Growth? Yes, but single digit.
1. The current estimated forward (2016) p/e is 19.72. The current estimated earnings growth rate is 12%. TRIB is not trading at 1 times its growth rate.
2. The tangible book value of TRIB is a fraction of its book value that includes goodwill and intangibles. Goodwill and intangibles can be perishable.
3. Notwithstanding the earnings numbers, the cash flow of TRIB has been negative for multiple quarters. Any acquisition will be a small one. It might not be substantially accretive for the first year or two. It might just replace faltering earnings of existing stale businesses.
4. The timely approval of the Troponin platform is still speculative as well as the actual sales that will be realized in the US.
5. The history of TRIB's management is (for the most part) that of over-promising and under-delivering.
Is TRIB a value stock now? No.
Is TRIB a growth stock? Not clear. Earnings have been declining for over a year. Revenues have been growing very mildly.
Because of Troponin, TRIB is a speculative stock.
Considering its estimated 2016 earnings, its growth rate, its tangible book value, and its dividends, TRIB will be a "value" stock once/if it drops below $7. TRIB is still a speculative stock.
Dialog (DLG.DE) traded 5% higher on the morning of Sep 28 just after the deceiving (hedge fund I suppose) leak to Reuters about Cypress' bid became known. Once Cypress revealed that it had no intention to outbid Dialog, ATML promptly dropped to $8 and the 5% rise of DLG.DE dissipated. Today, DLG.DE traded 681000 shares and it went up 0.76% to close at 36.40 EUR. ATML went down today 0.88% to close at 7.90 - truly pathetic. The discount between the effective Dialog's bid price and ATML's price is widening. Perhaps this is an indication that any buyout of Atmel is less than certain.
SHANGHAI, Sept 29 Chinese iron ore futures extended losses
on Tuesday as demand in the world's top consumer is expected to weaken amid
a deepening economic slowdown.
A big slump in shares of mining and trading company Glencore,
which fell almost 30 percent on Monday, also hit global equity and commodity
markets, fuelling worries over weak demand from China.
The most active iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange
dropped to a session-low of 361 yuan ($56.74) a tonne, the lowest
since Aug. 27. They dropped 1.7 percent to 367 yuan by close.
"The global equity rout has dampened broad commodities. Meanwhile, the
fundamentals of iron ore and steel are also weakening further, while iron
ore shipments from top miners rose," said Li Wenjing, an analyst with
Industrial Futures in Shanghai.
Rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange touched their
lowest since the contract launched in 2009, at 1,828 yuan a tonne, before
closing 2 percent lower at 1,833 yuan.
Asian shares skidded to 3-1/2-year lows and the dollar sagged on
Tuesday, pulled down by sharp losses on Wall Street after weak Chinese data
rekindled worries about its fragile economy.
Meanwhile, London copper fell to near last month's six-year
trough and Shanghai rubber closed 3.2 percent lower.
Iron ore for immediate delivery to China's Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI
dropped 0.36 percent to $56 a tonne on Monday.
"Strong interest"? I suppose Dialog's interest was stronger...
"Someone wanted it to be known..."? Have you considered that that someone wanted to beef up temporarily the stock of Atmel in order to get out at higher price and then short the stock?
SAN JOSE, Calif., Sept. 28, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (CY) today issued the following statement in response to recent market rumors regarding Atmel Corporation (ATML).
Cypress previously submitted an offer to the Board of Directors of Atmel to acquire Atmel. That offer expired and Cypress has withdrawn its interest in an acquisition of Atmel. Cypress regularly evaluates acquisition opportunities to complement its existing business, and maintains a disciplined approach to ensure that it continues to deliver long-term value to its shareholders.
Yet just 4 days ago Atmel was downgraded by equities researchers at Raymond James from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating.
Anglo–Swiss commodity and mining behemoth Glencore saw its shares slip another 26 percent on Monday with analysts stressing that the weakness is likely to be felt across the entire sector.
London-listed shares of Glencore briefly hit 69 pence in morning trade Monday. It was on course for its worst intraday move on record with shares tumbling 75 percent year-to-date and 85 percent since its flotation in 2011. The U.K. FTSE 350 mining index hit its lowest level since 2008 on the back of Glencore's fall.
Weaker commodity prices and softening Chinese demand have put the brakes on the formerly formidable rise the sector enjoyed over the last decade, but analysts have highlighted that Glencore's main problem is actually its debt load.
"Mining companies gorged themselves on cheap debt in a race to grow production following the Chinese stimulus that occurred in the wake of the (global financial crash)," a team of Investec analysts, led by Hunter Hillcoat, said in a note on Monday morning.
"The consequences are only now coming home to roost, as mines take a long time to build."
Investec said that Glencore had a "higher debt base" than its peers and a "lower-margin asset base," adding that its debt levels would still be above its rivals despite an intense period of restructuring over the next five years.
Investec detailed a scenario of weakening commodity prices - which is not its base case scenario - where it sees an "almost complete collapse" in potential earnings for Glencore as the company would be solely working to repay debt obligations.
Shareholder value would be would be "virtually eliminated" under this scenario, it said.
SHANGHAI, Sept 28 Chinese iron ore futures dropped to a one-month low on Monday as steel mills in the world's top consumer of the raw material held back buying on expectation of deepening weakness in steel demand. Some steel mills are posting losses as high as 600 yuan ($94.21) per tonne and facing a worsening liquidity crunch as the cooling economy continued to hurt demand for industrial commodities, industry sources said. The most active iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange slumped over 3 percent to 366.5 yuan a tonne, its lowest since Aug. 27. It ended 3.4 percent lower at 368 yuan a tonne. "There is high expectation that more steel mills will cut production over next few months as a result of tightening liquidity and shrinking demand," said Xia Junyan, an analyst with Everbright Futures in Shanghai. "Mills don't want to restock much of iron ore." China's total crude steel output fell 2 percent to 543.02 million tonnes for January-August from a year ago as steel consumption has already entered the peak zone last year. However, Citi expected China's steel output to remain relatively steady over the next two months, but to fall significantly in the first quarter of 2016. "We expect a combination of such cutbacks and continued supply growth to push prices below $40 a tonne in the first half of 2016," Citi said in a research note on Monday.
SINGAPORE – New supply from Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill iron ore mine will contribute to a slump in prices below $40 a metric ton next year, according to Citigroup Inc., which said lower steel output in China would also hurt the commodity.
The mine in Australia’s ore-rich Pilbara is poised to start shipments in October, and its expansion toward an annual output target of 55 million tons will probably have a large impact on prices, analysts including Ivan Szpakowski said in a report. Surging supplies will combine with steel-output cuts in China to push prices below $40 in the first half, Citigroup said.
Iron ore’s lost 20 percent this year on rising low-cost supply and faltering demand growth in China, and the addition of cargoes from Roy Hill to the global seaborne market may add to oversupply. Roy Hill Holdings Pty Chief Executive Officer Barry Fitzgerald told reporters last week that the project will start shipments next month and it’s on target to achieve full capacity over 15 months. Citigroup described the new mine in its report on Monday as an “impending whale” that would ship almost all of its output to China.
“A more significant shakeout is likely in the first half of 2016 as Chinese mills reduce output while supply continues to build,” Szpakowski said. “The largest source of incremental supply is coming from Roy Hill.”
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao rose 3 percent to $56.98 a dry ton on Friday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. It sank to $44.59 on July 8, a record low for daily price data dating back to May 2009.
While steel output in China was expected to hold steady over the next two months even as many mills registered losses, a significant decline was expected in the first three months next year, Citigroup said. The country accounts for about 50 percent of global production.
"(Reuters) - Cypress Semiconductor Corp is working on an offer to acquire Atmel Corp, the U.S. chipmaker that agreed to sell itself earlier this month to Dialog Semiconductor Plc, according to people familiar with the matter."
This cannot be serious. Cypress is smaller than Atmel. It has little cash on hand but significant debt.
Just the termination fee that Atmel will have to pay Dialog ($137M) will consume all the cash that Cypress has. A deal with Cypress cannot be all in cash. Most likely it will be mostly in shares that will be issued by Cypress. It will be more like a merger.
Why would some opinions from Atmel's employees be of much value regarding this deal? This is a poor deal for Atmel's investors, a good deal for the Atmel's directors that will join the Dialog BOD. If you want to read employees' opinions about Atmel, read the reviews on the website of the glassdoor. Let me summarize them for you. They think the Atmel's management is very top heavy, aloof, and overcompensated, especially Laub. They fear layoffs, whether Atmel is acquired or not.
The book value of DLG is 10.47 euros. ( ATML book value is $2.07)
The tangible book value of DLG is only 2.88 euros. ($1.5 for ATML)
Dialog's sales and profits for the last 3 quarters have been trending down or flat.
DLG has been flat below 20 euros for years until mid 2014.
Conclusion: any hiccup in performance by DLG and the stock will be down to the 20 euro level, and ATML effectively to $7. This may happen before the deal is concluded or shortly after.
As long as iron stays above $50, Vale should be profitable accounting for full sustaining costs of production, exploration, debt service, and freight.
BEIJING, Sept 24:
Chinese iron ore futures were flat in the early session on Thursday after four consecutive days of declines, with little prospect of any upturn ahead of the week-long National Day holiday starting Oct. 1. This week's annual steel raw materials conference in the Chinese port city of Qingdao, attended by giant state steel mills and global mining firms, is normally a chance for iron ore traders to strike deals, but it has seen very little activity. "The number of attendees is down really significantly this year because the market is so poor," said one trader at the event. "There are fewer and fewer people coming." Iron ore for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange inched up 0.3 percent to 378 yuan ($59.27) a tonne at the midday break on Thursday. January rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 0.05 percent to go into the midday break at 1,890 yuan. Iron ore for immediate delivery to China's Tianjin port dipped 0.5 percent on Wednesday to $56.8 a tonne. The price remains 28.8 percent higher than the low of early July, but that rebound is expected to be short-lived. ANZ Bank said in a note that the restocking rally was now "petering out". In a separate statement, the bank recommended selling January 2016 swaps, noting that the recent price recovery was "overdone" and was driven by supply disruptions from Brazil, rather than any spike in demand. Rising freight rates on the Brazil-China route suggest that supplies are back on the increase, it said. "It will be hard to avoid further downward pressure on iron ore prices," said an analyst with China's Sinolink Securities, noting that supplies were rising and steel mill utilisation rates in China were expected to fall as a result of persistently weak prices.
QINGDAO, CHINA: Iron ore miner Vale said it will cut its production cost to less than $13 per tonne by 2018, as the world's largest producer of the commodity maximises profit margins in an era of weak prices.
A global glut and falling Chinese steel demand have dragged iron ore prices to less than $60 a tonne from a high of nearly $200 in 2011. The price is forecast to drop to $50 over the next two years, a Reuters poll showed.
"Vale is progressing to reach the lowest cash cost of the industry and will be competitive at any price scenario," Claudio Alves, global director of marketing and sales at Vale, told a conference in China's port city of Qingdao.
The cost reduction will come after the completion of Vale's 90-million-tonne expansion project known as S11D in the Brazilian Amazon, Alves said, as the miner focuses on producing more high-quality material.
Vale's overall cost stood at $15.80 per tonne by the second quarter.
That compares with $16.20 for Rio Tinto Ltd and $17.01 for BHP Billiton Ltd for the first half of the year, and $22.16 for Fortescue Metals Group Ltd by the second quarter, said Alves, citing estimates from the miners' latest profit reports.
BHP expects to reduce iron ore unit costs at its Western Australia operations by 21 percent to $16 per tonne in the 2016 financial year.