The claimed $30M yearly saving from the synergy with Enterasys never materialized. Revenues and profits of the merged company actually dropped, and the tangible book value is now negative. Last year, we were told that 10% annual growth and 10% operating margin would be achieved in 2015. Per the CC, that will happen in late 2016.
Per the CC, significant sales to Lenovo are now delayed by a year and who knows whether they will actually amount to much.
Per Berger, growth will come from 1) a better sales force, 2) selling to campuses, schools, stadiums, and data centers, 3) from Lenovo. However, Extreme is facing stiff competition and its products are not clearly superior to the likes of Cisco and Juniper. What would make Extreme a takeover target?
It is now obvious that Berger's early enthusiasm about Extreme was misplaced and his initial understanding of the company was lacking. He essentially deceived the investors and analysts and has thus become untrustworthy. IMO, the old Extreme should have been sold even for a little over its tangible book value. I deeply regret investing in this company.
For its third quarter of fiscal 2015 ending March 31, 2015, the Company is targeting GAAP revenue in a range of $129 million to $139 million with non-GAAP revenue in a range of $130 million to $140 million. GAAP gross margin is targeted between 51.0% and 52.0% and non-GAAP gross margin targeted between 55.0% and 56.0%. Operating expenses are targeted to be between $83 million and $84.6 million on a GAAP basis and $72.5 million to $74.5 million on a non-GAAP basis. GAAP net loss is targeted to be between $14 million to $19.5 million, or $0.14 to $0.20 per share. Non-GAAP earnings are targeted in a range of a net loss of $3.1 million to net income of $1.8 million, or a loss of $0.03 to net income of $0.02 per diluted share. The GAAP and non-GAAP net (loss) income targets are based on an estimated 99 million and 101 million, average outstanding shares respectively.
Forced by whom? EXTR has no large active shareholders. Berger is one of the directors. EXTR will either succeed or disappear while being milked to the end by its directors and executives. Since its tangible book value is nil and the cash to debt ratio is poor, If earnings and guidance are negative the bears might take the stock down to the dollar level.
Berger has been the destroyer of shareholder equity.
The PRs in the quarter do not instill good feeling about the revenues of EXTR: WiFi in one stadium and one university (probably $4M together), multiple VP hirings, and a lot of fluff about customer support.
SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Iron ore prices hit their lowest in 5-1/2 years on Monday as some loss-making Chinese steel mills curbed output, ore supplies remained abundant and concerns persisted about the outlook for economic growth in China this year.
Cooling Chinese steel demand forced some steel mills to bring forward plant maintenance, which usually takes place during the Chinese New Year, which falls on Feb. 19. Mills looked to curb oversupply that helped knock nearly a third off prices last year in the world's top producer of the alloy.
"Steel mills have had to cut production as they have suffered losses as high as 200 yuan ($32) a tonne and the timing (for maintenance) was earlier than expected," said Xu Huimin, analyst at Huatai Great Wall Futures in Shanghai.
Xu expected rebar futures could fall further this year as growing supplies of iron ore further weigh on prices.
The benchmark 62 percent grade iron ore for immediate delivery to China fell 3.9 percent to $63.30 a tonne to its lowest level since May 2009, according to data compiled by the Steel Index.
• Vale's (NYSE:VALE) credit rating is downgraded by Standard & Poor’s for the first time in more than eight years, as market fundamentals for iron ore continue to weaken and erode Vale's operating cash flow generation as the company's capital expenses remain high.
• The downgrade follows S&P's revision of iron ore price assumptions to $65/ton in 2015 and 2016 and to $70/ton in 2017.
• S&P reduces its rating to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade, from A-
A growth of 7% does not necessarily mean 7% growth in steel production. The problem right now is excess supply coming into the market by RIO, BHP a, and VALE. That may continue for a couple of years.
This is the mark of a badly-managed company.
6 months ago, the CEO of VALE was sure that by now the price of iron would be about $90. The resident snake on this board, cash.mccall, agreed then with the CEO.
1. Berger deceived the investors when he acquired Enterasys. He gave a strong impression that annual earnings would be $0.6+ in the first year following the acquisiton. This is why the share price run up to $8. The acquistion of Enterasys rendered the tangible book value of EXTR nil and its liquidity poor. Meanwhile, the share count is being significantly diluted because of the massive stock-based compensation and employee share repurchase program.
2. There was no way EXTR could be sold at $10 before showing sustained growth and profitability. EXTR and Enterasys had histories of stagnation and very poor profitability. The new EXTR is yet to do any better. Because of its poor balance sheet, EXTR is very susceptible to bear raids.
3. There were a couple of large activist shareholders years back. They gave up and bailed out. After a succession of CEOs, Berger has been the last and final hope. Either he will succeed or the company will be liquidated for very little. The aging washeout ex-Cisco executives that Berger has hired will not salvage the company.
Is that an indication that the sales are collapsing and EXTR's credit ratings are to be lowered or is it program trading chasing the stock down because it has broken technical support? The selloff continues unabated with late-day large volumes. Berger deserves a curse for what he has done to the balance sheet of EXTR and to the shareholders.
A PR was released today on the availability of a mobile application, the Partner-Link. The performance of the stock does not fit that of a world-class company in-the-making as bombastically claimed in the following paragraph in today's PR.
Bob Gault, vice president of Global Channels and Partners, Extreme Networks
"As we continue to build a world-class company with best-in-class products and programs focused on partner success, it's imperative that we give our partners the tools they need to succeed. With the launch of PartnerLink, we're doing just that. PartnerLink streamlines operations to allow sales teams more time to focus on the activities that matter – moving prospects through the sales funnel and generating revenue. The launch of PartnerLink is just one example of how our commitment to partner profitability and innovation is second-to-none."
Note also the Form S-8 filed on Jan 12.
Common Stock, par value $0.001per share reserved for issuance under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan.
12,000,000 shares at a maximum purchase price of $2.958 per share. So it is a dilution of the share count by 12M shares with a maximum $35,496,000 proceeds for the company.
Is that the result of the company presentation at the 17th Annual Needham Growth Conference Wednesday, January 14th?
How badly have Berger and his hand-picked washed-out executives mismanaged the company in the last quarter? Will they claim competition from Cisco and Juniper and poor macroeconomics conditions as the excuse for the ongoing poor performance?
The book value is a moving target. Higher gold prices will take it up, lower-down. Possible large writedowns will lower the book value. $2B in cash but much more in debt. Management is experienced and yet the stock is at decades low; not an indication of high business IQ. ABX is not a value stock. It is a high-leverage-speculation on much higher gold prices than current.
Those news are dated from AFTER Sep 2, 2014, and are baked into the stock by now (but not before Sep 2, 2014). High debt load means less ability to get new loans at attractive rates.
1. Bad news from the Pascua Lama mine in Chile. (The possibility of a very large environmental fine, delayed production, and a very large writeoff).
2. Bad news from the Lumwana copper mine in Zambia. (Suspension of operations and a possibility of a large writeoff).
3. Falling copper prices and a belief that gold prices in mid-2015 will drop below $1100. (By some bearish analysts).
All of the above work against ABX which has relatively a very high debt load.
"Gold will extend losses this year as U.S. interest rates increase, providing an opportunity for investors to buy the metal to benefit from a rebound spurred by Asian demand, according to Barclays Plc."
"Bullion will probably average $1,200 in the first quarter, $1,180 in the second, $1,130 from July to September and $1,170 in the final three months of this year, Barclays said in the report. Prices will breach $1,130 for the first time since April 2010, according to the analysts."
25% of the float is shorted so the large shorts will do their best to prevent the stock from rising rapidly. Nevertheless, in the absence of very large rig markdowns and if the dividend is cut in a half rather than eliminated altogether, the short squeeze will be tremendous.