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TOTAL S.A. Message Board

c757172 160 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 6, 2016 10:24 AM Member since: Nov 22, 2008
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  • Has there been "solid earnings growth this year" ? Isn't the effective share count much higher now with the convertible notes?

    "And the road signs to solid earnings growth this year remain compelling. Our margins are expanding, operating expenses are carefully controlled, our share count has been significantly reduced, and we continue to be laser focused on delivering earnings growth and expanding enterprise value."

    New board members, Harshman's chosen flunkies, that have "clear focus on shareholder value". What has happened to shareholder value?

    "And on this point, I’d like to highlight another key element of our value creation agenda. As many of you are aware, we’ve continuously evolved and strengthened our board of directors as we have evolved the company. Sue Swenson and Mitzi Reaugh joined us only two years ago, and I’m pleased to say last month Nikos Theodosopoulos joined Harmonic’s board.. Nikos brings a deep understanding of the media and telecommunications space, virtualized network infrastructures and emerging cloud based architectures, along with a strong financial background and a clear focus on shareholder value."

  • Reply to

    Market share loss to Ericsson

    by jackowarrior Feb 4, 2016 12:04 PM
    c757172 c757172 Feb 4, 2016 6:06 PM Flag

    Old news from last October. However, Harshman has been a disaster for the Harmonic's investors. All of his strategic decisions have failed to reward the shareholders. He failed when he was a division chief in Harmonic over 10 years ago, and he has been a failure as a decade-long CEO. He is a poor manager. He retains the loyalty of the workforce by pampering them with perks. He himself unabashedly awards himself outsized zero- dollar stock options with little regards to the performance of the company as a commercial entity. Any "evolutionary strategy" managed under Harshman will likely fail. Keeping Harshman as a CEO is an abomination to all shareholders.

    "Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold maintained his “underperform” rating on the stock. “[W]e believe that in addition to a challenging spending environment, Harmonic suffers during its transition from legacy technologies,” he wrote. “We believe Harmonic has an evolutionary strategy in place, but it will take time to bear fruit.”

    He also believes that sales are partly affected because Harmonic lost encoding deals to Ericsson at Comcast and Time Warner Cable in 2014."

  • Reply to

    another down day for Extreme Networks!

    by pmkhoopster Feb 3, 2016 2:14 PM
    c757172 c757172 Feb 3, 2016 5:56 PM Flag

    The value of a typical contract for a large stadium is about $1.5M. This was disclosed about a couple of years ago by the previous CEO. That SuperBowl announcement is not new and other than bringing some prestige to Extreme, it means little to the bottom line.

  • All of them boosted the price target to $4-$5 just 4 months ago. In fact, only Needham had stayed with a 'hold' until their recent upgrade to 'buy'. The stock is deeply wounded. It appears that one or two of the boutique institutional holders of the stock are bailing out and there are no new believers in this "exciting" outfit.

  • Is that what Harshman calls "accelerating shareholder value creation"?

    Will Harmonic announce in its earnings release that Harshman will be joining Carolyn Aver?

  • Reply to

    2-1 Needham upgrade

    by scantrack Feb 1, 2016 10:32 AM
    c757172 c757172 Feb 1, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    Needham says:
    "We believe Extreme is making the right decisions, demonstrating improvements in its go-to-market strategy, finishing significant investments in training and service capabilities, and is now poised to pivot top growth".

    The reality:
    Not much rebound today following the upgrade by Needham. The market shrugged off the upgrade. "Go-to-market strategy" is a catchy slogan propagated by Meyercord. Until Extreme "pivots to top growth", and with good margins and real earnings, the stock will stay depressed. Meyercord's grace period is over.

  • c757172 c757172 Jan 29, 2016 10:21 PM Flag

    Do not forget that before Meyercord assumed the CEO position he had been a director for 6 years, and a chairman for 4 years. Now he is all powerful. He is Chief Exec. Officer, Pres, Exec. Director, Chairman of Strategy Committee and Member of Nominating & Corp. Governance Committee. Apparently he is a good bullshitter but a very weak manager. He hired Berger. At least Berger readily admitted that the company did poorly when it did. In the recent CC, Meyercord expressed great satisfaction with the quarterly results and guidance, and claimed that Extreme was growing for the first time in several years. The market did not buy it. Meyercord can say again and again how more and more excited he is becoming with Extreme but the market is becoming disillusioned. The value of my EXTR dropped $35K since the earnings' release so I'm very #$%$ off.

  • Reply to

    This is a huge over reaction on EXTR

    by pjinvestmentco Jan 28, 2016 3:47 PM
    c757172 c757172 Jan 29, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    This might be true but apparently Extreme has just started doing so out of competitive necessity. This will affect margins. In the absence of revenue growth it will jeopardize the company because lower margins on low revenues will result in the company staying unprofitable. Revenue growth has been elusive. While Meyercord has not been as bold as Berger with his promises, he has not been completely honest with the investment community. I'm waiting to see rating changes of EXTR by those analysts that upgraded the stock several months ago and are now facing reality. Those analysts participated in the Q&A yesterday.

  • Reply to

    This is a huge over reaction on EXTR

    by pjinvestmentco Jan 28, 2016 3:47 PM
    c757172 c757172 Jan 28, 2016 7:20 PM Flag

    I think that what spooked the market is the new 5-year limited lifetime warranty that Extreme will be giving on its products. This will decrease future service revenues while increasing expenses. It will result in significantly lower future gross margins. It can be a recipe for disaster.

    The following Motely Fool's explanation for the outsized stock drop today is not complete.

    "So what: Extreme shares have surged during the past several months on signs of accelerating top-line growth, but today's Q3 results -- EPS of $0.09 on a revenue decline of 5% -- coupled with downbeat guidance, are quickly forcing Mr. Market to sober up. In fact, gross margin during the quarter fell 70 basis points over the year-ago period, raising plenty of concerns among analysts over increasing costs and competition going forward.

    Now what: Management now sees Q3 EPS of ($0.01)-$0.03 on revenue of $118 million-$128 million versus the consensus estimate of $0.03 and $123.2 million, respectively. "Now that we've laid the groundwork over the past two quarters, we are concentrating our efforts on new product introductions and executing our solutions-based selling initiatives in our target vertical markets," said President and CEO Ed Meyercord. "With better visibility into our pipeline and strong business momentum, we are projecting year over year growth for the March quarter." Given Extreme's worrisome top-line and still-fickle competitive position, however, I wouldn't bet too heavily on that bullishness just yet."

  • c757172 c757172 Jan 28, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    Meyercord was upbeat in the earnings' CC. He was very satisfied with Extreme's performance and prospects. He even emphasized that the company will actually grow next quarter compared to a year ago. (This growth is based on the mid-point of the guidance, and it is very small.) Did Meyercord even envision this magnitude of stock collapse? When I read the earnings release I expected the stock to drop 10% because of the weak guidance and the worrisome drop in gross margins. The 30% drop indicates that a large institutional holder is finally giving up and/or a massive bear raid.

  • If one just listens to the opening remarks of the CEO, one gets excited about Extreme. Like all previous CEOs, the present one talks about how he is getting more excited about the company and the great "opportunities" it has,that the company is highly regarded by Gartner and it is one of only 3 companies that has complete solutions, and that the company is small and nimble and can easily grab market share. Unfortunately, the proof is in the numbers. There is no growth and hardly any real earnings. The share count is increasing and the tangible book value is still negative. The analysts did not like to hear about a) the significant obsolete inventory that will have to be (mostly) written off, and b) the new 5-year limited lifetime warranties that the company will have to establish reserves against. So what we have here is the prospect for decreased gross margins and poor growth. If one is to believe the CEO, Extreme should be a real growth company. The market does not buy it. This is extremely disappointing to me.

  • Still no growth and no real profits. The new CEO has managed to stabilize the company but the medium to long term prospects are still quite dim.

  • Not much rebound in this Harshman-infested stock... Covert's presentation at the 18th Annual Needham Growth Conference on Jan 14 apparently has failed to stimulate investor's enthusiasm.

  • Reply to

    It is over..At last..

    by quorum007 Jan 19, 2016 6:02 PM
    c757172 c757172 Jan 19, 2016 7:07 PM Flag

    Well, the final price is lower than what most investors and virtually all of the analysts have expected. Microchip negotiated very well; Atmel was desperate. The big winners are a) Steve Laub who has looted the company for years with outsized stock options, and b)those who sold the stock in the teens during the brief period when Atmel did well with its touch controllers. The big losers are a)those who believed the analysts' price targets and paid over $8 in anticipation of a buyout, and b) the old-timers who were greedy and did not sell in the teens, expecting the twenties...

  • Reply to

    Financing for TVN Acquisition

    by jackowarrior Jan 18, 2016 8:02 PM
    c757172 c757172 Jan 19, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    Better educate yourself on hedging of convertible notes.

    Rah, rah, rah; Harshman, the brilliant CEO, knows best what's good for HLIT's investors....

  • Reply to

    Financing for TVN Acquisition

    by jackowarrior Jan 18, 2016 8:02 PM
    c757172 c757172 Jan 19, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    The acquisition offer is binding. The folks buying the Notes already shorted more than 7M shares. The Notes are senior and if Harmonic falters, the Notes holders will assume control of the company. The deal will most likely go through.

    For 2014 TVN had sales of 71M (EUR). Assuming acquisition value of $90 million ($75 million at closing plus $15 million), the valuation is slightly more than 1x annual sales.

    The “Binding Offer” is structured as a put option for TVN’s shareholders. A put option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell shares to the option writer (in this instance Harmonic). The “put” option is subject to the selling TVN shareholders’ 60-day consultation process with TVN’s employee works council in France. Should the TVN shareholders execute the “put” option subsequent to the consultation process, then the parties would immediately execute a formal purchase and sale agreement.

    Harmonic does maintain the right to terminate the transaction if the company is unable to raise adequate financing for the transaction.

    A review of the regulatory filing also highlights several closing conditions including the requirement of TVN to reacquire its patent portfolio from France Brevets (a third-party patent licensing firm).

    TVN has been established in the video delivery domain since the late 1980s. As a video headend division of the French electronics Thomson group, now known as Technicolor SA, the company developed and manufactured MPEG-2 and MPEG-4/AVC video encoding and networking equipment based on advanced compression algorithms. Since 2011, the division has become an independent private held company with a financial structure backed by the public/private Venture Capital, FCDE. Institutional investor Edmon de Rothschild Investment Partners acquired a 49% stake in TVN in December 2014.

  • Reply to

    Envivio/Ericsson Winning All the Business

    by jackowarrior Jan 15, 2016 9:49 PM
    c757172 c757172 Jan 16, 2016 11:06 AM Flag

    I do not know if your claim is true but something is not right here about the relative acquisitions of Envivio and TVN by Ericsson and Harmonic respectively. Both Envivio and TVN were claimed by Ericsson and Harmonic to have some great technology and market share.

    In Sep, Ericsson acquired Envivio, a publicly traded American company, for $125M. Envivio had only $43M revenues in 2014.
    Harmonic is acquiring TVM, a private French company, for about $90M. TVM had about $70M revenues in 2014.

    Is Ericsson stupid or does Envivio have great technology while TVN has dated technology and its balance sheet is loaded with liabilities? We will know once Harmonic incorporates TVN in its balance sheet.

    Notably, HLIT market cap now is only about 0.8 x annual revenues. It is below what Harmonic paid for Omneon. This is the mark of an unloved distressed tech company.

    Is Harmonic really "the worldwide leader in video infrastructure delivery" as it claims or is it rank false advertising?

    Anyhow, with Harshman in place there will be no happy ending to Harmonic as a company and as an investment.

  • c757172 c757172 Jan 14, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    When criticizing Harmonic, one should stick to the facts and not exaggerate.

    In early 2013, Harmonic sold its Cable Access business which generated $52.9 million of net revenue in calendar year 2012. So about $13M should be subtracted from your $144M figure and Harshman and cronies presided over the reduction of revenues by "merely" 35% since late 2011.

    Harshman must be given the broom treatment!

  • Citigroup on Thursday slashed its iron ore price estimates for this year through 2018 to as low as $35 a ton, saying supply needs to be reduced amid declining demand.

    The investment bank cut its 2016 forecast to $36 a ton from $41 in its November estimate. It also trimmed its 2017 and 2018 forecasts to $35 for each year from $39 and $40, respectively.

    "In a market faced with declining demand, continued curtailment of existing supply will be needed and it is the price at which this is likely to happen that will largely shape prices moving forward," Citi said in a report.

    Citi said roughly 100 million tonnes of global iron ore supply needs to be cut by next year and another 200 million tonnes by 2018.

    "We expect the largest curtailments to come from Australia followed by Brazil, but with cuts also expected from Canada, Iran, Russia, Chile, and elsewhere," it said.

    At $35 /ton Vale will need to outlive Fortescue and other smaller producers that will go BK....
    The only strong company left is RIO. BHP is also on the ropes and it is heavily indebted.

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