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TOTAL S.A. Message Board

c757172 110 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 20 minutes ago Member since: Nov 22, 2008
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  • c757172 c757172 1 hour 29 minutes ago Flag

    No. If I were a Note holder, I would have converted some into shares and sell in bulk in a day when there is a demand for the stock (because of the good guidance). This is a great profit selling around $6 while converting at $1.95. Why take the chance and hold all of the Notes until 2018-2020 when the optical cycle may be over and the stock lower.

  • Read the following regarding the Convertible Notes:

    "The Convertible Notes will be convertible, at the option of the holders, into consideration consisting of, shares of Oclaro's common stock (and cash in lieu of fractional shares) at any time prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the maturity date. Prior to February 15, 2018, in the event that the last reported sale price of our common stock for 20 or more trading days (whether or not consecutive) in a period of 30 consecutive trading days ending within five trading days immediately prior to the date we receive a notice of conversion exceeds the conversion price in effect on each such trading day, we will, in addition to delivering shares upon conversion by the holder of the Convertible Notes, together with cash in lieu of fractional shares, make an interest make-whole payment. The initial conversion rate will be 512.8205 shares of Oclaro's common stock per $1,000 principal amount of Convertible Notes (equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $1.95 per share of Oclaro's common stock), representing an approximately 33.6% conversion premium to the $1.46 last reported sale price of Oclaro's common stock on The NASDAQ Global Select Market on February 12, 2015. The conversion rate will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events. In addition, Oclaro may be obligated to increase the conversion rate for any conversion that occurs in connection with a make-whole fundamental change and with Oclaro's delivery of a notice of redemption for the Convertible Notes".

  • Reply to

    3 analysts already boosted PT

    by c757172 6 hours ago

    1. Oclaro's poor past still lingers in memory so it will take SEVERAL good quarters to persuade the skeptics that this cycle has legs.
    2. There is very large short position in the stock. The big shorters will sell more in order to suppress the stock.
    3. The number of fully diluted shares counted in the EPS calculation will be inflated next quarter, suppressing the EPS and hence the stock. Read the following:

    "As an additional comment, with interest and taxes of approximately $2 million to $3 million per quarter and a similar level of quarterly GAAP adjustments, our midrange guidance would achieve the GAAP net income threshold of $3.9 million and would trigger including 33.3 million shares from the convertible notes in the diluted share count. As a result, at the midrange of guidance with approximately 147 million diluted shares, our non-GAAP EPS range would be $0.04 to $0.07."

    4. The price target of the stock has been boosted by several analysts but not by much. Skepticism lingers.

  • 5/4/2016 Piper Jaffray Boost Price Target $6.75
    5/4/2016 Needham & Company LLC Boost Price Target Buy $6.50 - $7.00
    5/4/2016 Stifel Nicolaus Boost Price Target Buy $6.00 - $6.50

  • Well done!

    For Q4:
    Revenues in the range of $115 million to $123 million.
    •Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 27% to 30%.
    •Non-GAAP operating income in the range of $7 million to $11 million.

  • Reply to


    by bullishgrizzly May 3, 2016 3:46 PM

    Samarco might declare BK and never reopen. In addition to Samarco Vale and BHP, that lawsuit also targets "Brazil’s federal government along with both Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo state governments".

  • The title of a recent review of Harmonic in the glassdoor.

  • Reply to

    Imagine if we got paid for the PR's

    by myownstimulusplan Apr 13, 2016 8:25 AM
    c757172 c757172 May 3, 2016 8:36 AM Flag

    Exciting PR? It is exciting only if a dollar figure is released for the sale, and the figure is large. For real excitement wait for May 10, the earnings release date.

  • Reply to

    Proxy devoted to compensation

    by needinfo117 Apr 29, 2016 7:33 AM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 29, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    Long term investors (of the hold and forget type) have had large NEGATIVE returns. It is most likely that they will never recoup their investment. This is a trading stock. Is the stock cheap now? Difficult to assess since the balance sheet of the combined HLIT/TVN is yet to be released.

  • Name. Fees Paid in Cash($). Stock Awards ($). Option Awards ($). Total ($)

    Patrick Gallagher 81,088 119,999 --- 201,087
    Harold Covert 67,000 119,999 --- 186,999
    E. Floyd Kvamme. 58,500 119,999 --- 178,499
    Mitzi Reaugh 44,000 119,999 --- 163,999
    William F. Reddersen 60,00 119,999 --- 179,999
    Susan G. Swenson 55,980 119,999 --- 175,979
    Nikos Theodosopoulos 31,388. 119,999 78,987 --- 230,374

  • Reply to

    Q3 results and Q4 outlook slightly above estimates

    by c757172 Apr 27, 2016 4:15 PM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 28, 2016 6:10 PM Flag

    I sincerely hope that you will be proven right about your fast forward one year guess. My very long suffering 30K shares will be gladly sold at $7 to $9.

  • Reply to

    Extreme BS

    by mavmike Apr 28, 2016 5:33 PM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 28, 2016 6:04 PM Flag

    Those like Goldman Sachs that believe that iron will drop by the end of 2016 to $35 sold the stock. BRL up and oil up mean higher labor and maritime freight costs, and therefore reduced profitability. Gold up has relatively modest influence because Vale produced only 115,000 ounces of gold in the quarter. The price of gold by itself has poor correlation with the price of iron. Previous forecasts by the CEO of Vale have been proven wrong.

  • Reply to

    Q3 results and Q4 outlook slightly above estimates

    by c757172 Apr 27, 2016 4:15 PM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 28, 2016 4:53 PM Flag

    If the general market does not drop much, EXTR will probably rise to the $3.6 level. Extreme does have Investor relations department which releases news. However, Extreme does not have many big-item impressive sales to talk about. Furthermore, Extreme is not followed by many analysts. The big investment houses do not cover the stock. The poor historical performance of the company and the stock are the reasons for that. Extreme does not possess standout technology, nor there are known catalysts to push it forward. It will have to compete well in the market it participates. Per the conference call, those markets grow in the aggregate about 2% per year so for Extreme to grow double digit, it will have to grab market share.

  • Reply to

    Q3 results and Q4 outlook slightly above estimates

    by c757172 Apr 27, 2016 4:15 PM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 28, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    Rose only a little. Not surprising. The stock had already risen in the weeks prior to the earnings release. The results were only slightly better than expected and far from being impressive. The company is still essentially muddling through with very little growth and real earnings. In the conference call, the CEO admitted that Extrene's products are not high end (as those of Brocade/Ruckus). The only way for Extreme to grow significantly is to grab market share in the 5 verticals it participates. The jury is still out on that.

  • 4/28/2016. Citigroup Reiterated Neutral
    4/26/2016. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Set Price Target Sell. 6.50 euro

  • 1. Underlying earnings were positive US$ 514 million in 1Q16, against negative US$ 1.032 billion in 4Q15.

    2. The realized price for iron ore fines increased by US$ 9.3/t from US$ 37.2/t in 4Q15 to US$ 46.5/t in 1Q16.

    3. Iron ore and pellets EBITDA break-even, measured by unit cash costs and expenses on a landed-in-China basis (and adjusted for quality, pellets margins differential and moisture, excluding ROM), decreased from US$ 31.0/dmt in 4Q15 to US$ 28.0/dmt in 1Q16, mainly driven by the US$ 2.80/t reduction on maritime freight costs.

    Future maritime freight costs will be higher because the price of oil had already bottomed. Labor costs will also be higher because the real had probably bottomed against the dollar. However, lower unit cost from the coming S11D mine and plant will compensate for some of these.

  • Reply to

    The World Bank Raised Iron Ore Forecast.

    by cdmurray4 Apr 27, 2016 10:19 AM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 27, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    If iron stays above $50 and the price of oil does not rise above $60, Vale will be earning over $4B annually from its iron operations. For the share price to reach double digit again, the nickel, copper, coal, and potash operations of Vale need to become profitable as well.

  • Disaster averted. Perhaps the stock will rise a little..

  • Reply to

    what happened to Syphilas being a $10 MM product

    by duhu12 Apr 19, 2016 4:06 PM
    c757172 c757172 Apr 19, 2016 10:58 PM Flag

    Repeat excuses quarter after quarter. Trinity has been more hype than substance. This has been the case from the very beginning of the company. Read the transcripts of the quarterly earnings conference calls of the last 4 years and compare the reality versus the promises.

    "P/E is freaking 13"? Better check your numbers. P/E for 2016, accounting for the miss just reported in Q1, is over 40. P/E for 2017 is optimistically 20.

    The only reason to hold the stock is the hope that the FDA approves eventually the Troponin test and the stock spikes on the news.

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