I have already called Tait. I am not ready to fly up to Canada. My feel is that management honestly thinks Letcrap is doing a good job. Any idea what the board of directors is thinking?
Expresses much of my same concerns about management's decisions over the past few years. Includes some thoughts about Westwood (possible ground control problems and the noticeable lack of a revised mine plan and general lack of discussion about the mine). Agrees that Cote appears to have been a complete waste and that Letwin needs to make something happen, not just claim low POG as excuse for sub-par to adequate performance.
I think all the lies that have been sown are being reaped - payback is inevitable. The gov has distorted employment stats by marginalizing labor participation, which is at 30+ year highs; the have done this with inflation, GDP, etc.
Anyway, I think Yellen's challenge is to develop a central banking solution to main street since QE has only really propped up Wall Street and the housing market. In other words, she needs to inject liquidity into the middle and lower class, not just further expand the gap between the upper class and everyone else.
I only see 2 options to do this: 1) increase reserve rates on the big banks so they are charged more for keeping their massive amount of cash on the sidelines and become incentivized to lend to small businesses and smaller investors. 2) Create actual debit cards to citizens near or below the poverty level so that they will straight by twinkies, dorritoes, and budweisers at the local market. Maybe also tax credits, treasury checks in the mail, lower oil, stronger dollar... those are all forms of stimulus.
Either way, we are on shaky ground but for all I know the US will stay on top is they let entreprenuers do their thing and the gov winds back thier police state tactics and returns to accountibility.
Weakening economic data, low inflation, strong dollar, low price of oil, lowering deficit, market volatility, ultra low sentiment, 10% correction... I'd say conditions are all lining up for QE4 (however they word it or play it) without gold going lower. We'll see....
It's a bit comical to me actually - I have taken such a thorough beating the past year on this stock and my (largely wrong) bullish speculation on the mining sector, to hear the news outlets now beginning to be somewhat skittish about the S&P and Dow. I will have to watch and learn how this disinflation will pan out. We'll see just how large that volume of Fed money really is that has propped up wall street since '09. Where will it go? In to healthy robust industry/employment (as they would prefer) or hard assets like commodities or real estate as it seems to do if the bond market doesn't give the sufficient real interest rate or yield.
The key part of what you said i think is "when there is TALK OF rate hikes". The Fed most effective tool is talk. Look at them change their tune all the time - previous employment targets have been reached and they still haven't raised rates. I think bc it would be disastrous to the US budget, especially with a strong dollar to service so much debt and make less money on exports, lower GDP, etc. The only reason they would ever raise rates is if inflation was becoming a serious concern, and even then they would still keep real interest rates as low as possible (pare inflation rate with interest rate). The point is that inflation would be the main concern in that environment and gold would be bullish as the preferred safe haven. Don't see how long gold can lose, other than personal blood pressure levels from looking too often at intraday fluctuations.
I tend to agree. This is not really about fundamentals as much as sentiment, particularly the sentiment of hedge fund plays, derivative plays, and POG as determined on the futures market by the big boys. This was the main driver from 2001-2011. Pretty much the same fundamentals are in place for these players to reposition themselves to be bullish. It could happen any day at the drop of a hat. Pretty low risk if you have the capital to buy long.
Yeah I won't even start offloading until $5. I was hoping that that would be in 2015 with inflation and rising rates but it looks like global deflation may last longer than expected - in which case more printing will be needed and all the more subsequent crash/inflation. Don't really see how you can lose if you're long gold. Just a matter what you play shorter and medium--term with the rest of your cash.
maybe shorting based on the bet that gold will go to $1050 or below and that management will squander all of the $500M on dud mine? I suppose could happen. Maybe selling to preserve the short position they have already put themselves in?
because it fell down farther and had farther to come up. the market does not like their financial position. manipulation definitely goes on but nothing off in this case today
Looks like I have been right there with you leeb these past few years regarding this company.
Does anyone know if they had any attractive deals waiting in the wings when they sold Niobec for the $500M?
I left a message with Bob Tait yesterday and he left a message back saying the the Niobec price was VERY good from their standpoint and that it was a VERY strategic move to transition into better grade and lower cost mining. I also asked if there were any current discussions to replace management due to the extreme weakening of their financial situation over the past few years. He didn't directly respond to anything on that other than that they seem to feel confident with where that are right now and their direction into the future. I haven't called him back.
I just called Tait and left message expressing my disappointment. Hopefully someone calls back explaining to me why shareholders should have any confidence that management will property allocate Niobec proceeds after what we have seen with capital investment over the past few years.
If you are thinking this could be a catalyst to rebound POG, I would say that you are pretty desperate. Until dollar falls and inflation hits, this ship is going down...
Whoever sold them on that is living well...