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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

ca_fatboy 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2016 5:59 PM Member since: Feb 24, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Who are you SHORTS trying to convince?

    by rfredrickson40 Apr 11, 2016 5:23 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Apr 11, 2016 5:59 PM Flag

    Agreed. When someone starts taking something said about a stock personally, then they are to emotionally invested to be objective about the stock, and unable to make reasonable decisions.

  • Reply to

    Who are you SHORTS trying to convince?

    by rfredrickson40 Apr 11, 2016 5:23 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Apr 11, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    Well said. I'm not short AA, but I am short the broader market and I short specific stock all the time. I'm always amazing at the hate and vitriol I receive when I try to engage in reasonable discussion with people about the merits of a stock when I reveal that I'm short.

    Do these people not understand that Shorts (especially at this level) don't really impact the stock price? Are they so insecure that they must attack anyone that has a different opinion?

    It's stupid. I'm always happy to have a reasonable discussion with someone with a different opinion.

    I think the unfortunate truth is just that most people posting on yahoo message boards have the emotional maturity of a 9 year old.

  • Reply to

    Who are you SHORTS trying to convince?

    by rfredrickson40 Apr 11, 2016 5:23 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Apr 11, 2016 5:28 PM Flag

    Hello, Pot... it's me, Kettle.

  • Reply to

    EPS beats

    by garp_seeker Apr 11, 2016 4:27 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Apr 11, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    I don't have a position in AA, just watching closely to see how the market treats AA as the first company to report - and what they focus on. I am short the broader market, via ETF.

    So this is a perfect test case for me to watch. I think a lot of companies are going to be in this exact position - beating EPS via buybacks or adjusted numbers, but then missing on the top line. So I want to see how the market reacts to AA tomorrow.

    I just think that Revenue is a better long term view. Companies can't cut their way to success, eventually they have to grow. But EPS is important to see how companies can weather short-term market downturns.

    So we'll just have to see what the market does with AA. But like I said, it's turned out to be the perfect test case.

    Lower now in AH trade. But until the market opens tomorrow, it's all speculation. I've seen too many stocks completely reverse the AH trend once the market opened the next day.

  • ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Apr 11, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    That's exactly why I think most people will start focusing on Revenue. EPS is almost always somewhat manipulated, and now with the broader trend of companies buying back stock to bolster EPS numbers, Revenue seems to be a truer view of company success (or lack thereof).

  • Reply to

    EPS beats

    by garp_seeker Apr 11, 2016 4:27 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Apr 11, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    So, which will the market care about - beating EPS, or missing revenue? AH is only down about 7 cents right now - so too early to tell.

    I would guess Rev, since EPS is a 'manipulated' number and Revenue tells real sales story. But we'll have to wait an see.

    This will be the theme of this quarters earnings season - will the Revenue recession kill the market, or will traders only care about how well companies can manage the bottom line?

    I wish I knew.

  • Reply to

    Ford history

    by ebud1949 Mar 24, 2016 9:53 AM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Mar 25, 2016 6:31 PM Flag

    Ford has a P/E of 7 and a dividend yield of 4 1/2%. Good luck with your short, but I think I'll stay long here.

  • Reply to

    F Schultz and F Sbux

    by ca_fatboy Mar 23, 2016 6:33 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Mar 25, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    I think I'm just fed up with Election year nonsense - and with the yahoos in this years election (on both sides, don't kid yourself) I'm even more fed up. But I'm sick of CEO's and Actors telling everyone else what they should think.

    How about you just sell your coffee, or bang your supermodel girlfriends (the actors, not the CEO's) and let me decide what I think about politics.

    Why do these arrogant jerks think they are so important that they have an obligation to inform me how to think?

    I'm not paranoid... but not sure I've ever been all that rational (at least I stopped shorting Sbux!).

  • Reply to

    F Schultz and F Sbux

    by ca_fatboy Mar 23, 2016 6:33 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Mar 23, 2016 8:21 PM Flag

    No, he is a famous lefty (which is fine, everyone has a RIGHT to their opinion), and said this election is about the morality of the country.

    Not sure if he's for Hillary or Sanders, but clearly the implication is that if you don't vote the way he believes you should, then you're immoral.

    Regardless, I don't need the place I buy my grande mocha telling me what my morals should be, and whether they are right or wrong.

    I thought it was fine when customers decided to boycott Chick-fill-a when that CEO opened his yap and injected himself into politics - that's the other side of free speech, that others get to exercise their free speech in response.

    And I'm free to give my money to someone who doesn't tell me that I'm immoral. If you want my money, here's a tip - don't tell me I'm wrong about something that's none of your business. I will exercise my free speech by spending my money elsewhere.

    Luckily, I'm from the PacNW and there're TONS of choices for coffee.

  • ca_fatboy by ca_fatboy Mar 23, 2016 6:33 PM Flag

    I don't care if you have political beliefs, but I care that Schultz is constantly cramming his down my throat. And now I'm "immoral" because I'm a Republican? F him. I guess he doesn't want my "immoral" money, then. No problem.

  • AT&T now the #2 provider, and is offering larger incentives to woo new customers. Those large ($650) incentives will come straight off the bottom line - and are front loaded: incentive now, contract revenue two years from now. AT&T starts each new customer 6-9 months in the hole.

  • Reply to

    Why is T and VZ getting crushed today?

    by back_bay_professor Feb 11, 2016 2:49 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 12, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    Typical idiot reply.

    I'm being honest. A lot of what AT&T - or any stock - will do depends on what the broader market does. If you don't understand that, then get ut of the stock market.

    Then I clearly stated what I thought the broader market will do, and what I thought AT&T would do within that assumption set.

    Then brain-dead fanboys (like yourself) #$%$ and moan because you don't know how to cope if someone has a different point of view.

    I stated my opinion. If you don't like it, don't read it. If you disagree - by all mean give us your reasoning - expect none of you appear to have any reasoning skills.

    But posting meaningless insults and complaints doesn't change my opinion or impact me in any way - just reveals you to be a pointless whiner.

    At least you're in good company on this board. The most meaningful posts on this board appear to be the newsletter spammers...

  • Reply to

    Why is T and VZ getting crushed today?

    by back_bay_professor Feb 11, 2016 2:49 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 11, 2016 5:24 PM Flag

    "you shouldn't be in stocks." Good advice, I think.

  • Reply to

    Why is T and VZ getting crushed today?

    by back_bay_professor Feb 11, 2016 2:49 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 11, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    If I knew the answer to that question I'd be typing this from my private island in Fiji. No one really knows what the market will do - and don't trust anyone who tells you they do.

    Personally, I believe that the S&P will hit ~1,740. That doesn't mean it will stop there, but that's where I will consider buy something. That could happen quickly - like next week. I sold everything in late December and started shorting - lucky timing. So I' waiting for a good entry point. Lot's of great stocks out there, but not in this market.

    The second part of your question - what will AT&T do in that 'lowering tide' - again, I wish I knew. AT&T is in a very well defined trading pattern between (roughly) $32.5 and $37.5. So, we just tested the top end of that range. My guess is that we'll tend toward the lower end. I don't think we'll see $32.5. With the bond market so tight, T will get some strength from people looking for bond alternatives.

    But T can't hold up when the entire market is selling off. So until the broader market gains a solid footing, T is going to fall with it. But T will probably continue to show relative strength - look at today, T down ~1/2 what the market is.

    So, even if AT&T is the prettiest horse at the glue factory - still doesn't make it a good horse. I'm not going long ANYTHING until the market stabilizes. Losing less money than the market is still losing money. People act like you HAVE to be invested - you don't. Cash is an option. Fine, I haven't made any money in 2 months - but I've avoided a ~15% market sell off. I'll take that any day.

  • Reply to

    Why is T and VZ getting crushed today?

    by back_bay_professor Feb 11, 2016 2:49 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 11, 2016 3:55 PM Flag

    Being a bond alternative can only protect against a broad market sell-off for so long. In the end, T and VZ are both still stocks, and eventually the falling tide lowers all boats.

  • Reply to

    Bought my first At&T today

    by myyddogal Feb 10, 2016 6:36 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 11, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    Really, basically the exact same thing I said, for which you insulted me.

  • Reply to

    Bought my first At&T today

    by myyddogal Feb 10, 2016 6:36 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 11, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    And here is a post that uses the age-old tactic of completely misrepresenting what I said, and then claiming that their interpretation of what I said was wrong.

    Sure, it's not forever, BUT IT'S BEEN FOUR YEARS. So you saying the breakout is certain, or even likely, flaunts four years of track record.

    I never said it was forever - I said there would need to be some catalyst to change that range. I also said that was just my opinion, and that "I might be wrong"

    So, go F yourself.

    P.S. how's that range treating you today.

    See, myyddogal - I said that there would be people attacking me for not being blindly positive. Whatever you do, don't get married to a stock - always stay objective. There aren't personal relationships. Stocks are a purchase. They make sense some times, and not others. Never get so emotional you can't make good decisions.

    Best of luck to you with your trade. Don't let yourself get bullied on either side of a trade. If you're ever wrong, better to have been wrong based on your own decision that by listening to someone else.

  • Reply to

    Bought my first At&T today

    by myyddogal Feb 10, 2016 6:36 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 11, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    Well, you get your panties in a wad if I post anything negative about your baby - so just being clear.

    Geez, you cry when I say something negative, you cry when I say 'don't sell' - you're just a pissy little girl...

  • Reply to

    Bought my first At&T today

    by myyddogal Feb 10, 2016 6:36 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 10, 2016 8:27 PM Flag

    Not great timing (IMO), but in the long term, you'll be fine. AT&T is in a very well defined trading range (fact) and just traded near the top of that range (fact). I think the market is headed lower (IMO) and that will drag AT&T with it (IMO). AT&T has held up well in the latest market down turn because it acts as a bond alternative, since it yields just over 5% and bonds yield much less (IMO, plus every expert opinion).

    So I expect AT&T will likely trade toward the lower end of it's range as the broader market continues to sell off in the next 1-2 months (IMO). But AT&T is a strong company and does have a great dividend, so in the long run, you'll be fine. You just would have been better off to wait a couple months and buy around $33 (IMO).

    But you'll see many posters scream at my post - thinking AT&T will go down is more than some people can fathom. And, of course, I could be wrong.

    Good luck to you, and don't sell if/when AT&T goes down. It will go back up - that's the point of being in a trading range.

  • Reply to

    T hit the top of it's 4 year range, now

    by ca_fatboy Feb 9, 2016 4:53 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Feb 10, 2016 12:35 AM Flag

    Ballsy - I like it. Only 2 1/2 weeks, I hope it pays off

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