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E*TRADE Financial Corporation Message Board

ca_fatboy 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2014 6:08 PM Member since: Feb 24, 1998
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  • ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 17, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Well, the market has only been valued this high twice in history - 1929 and 1999. How do you feel now?

  • ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 17, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Yikes, so much for that. I like AMD - luckily don't own any. But if it keeps selling off, might be time to pick some up. They should focus on GPU's and give up on CPU's.

  • Reply to

    Intel buying back stock and has a lot of debt ?

    by nuff101 Jul 17, 2014 9:40 AM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 17, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I don't see why it would be any different than companies using futures contracts to lock in the price of oil, or timber, or even lock in currency exchange rates.

  • Reply to

    Intel buying back stock and has a lot of debt ?

    by nuff101 Jul 17, 2014 9:40 AM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 17, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Then they purchase at the market rate and let the options expire. They can write off the cost of the options as a financial loss/hedge. Intel has an entire group that invests their cash - the cost of the options would simply get burried in the gains/losses from that group.

  • Reply to

    Back at 34

    by wallisweaver Jul 17, 2014 12:44 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 17, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    I'll take that over a moron with no life who's so desperate for attention that he that posts 100 times a day...

  • ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 16, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    No, no - haven't you been reading this board? Intel goes to $100 tomorrow, $200 Friday, and $1,000 next week.

  • Reply to

    Sandisk Beats on Revenues and Earnings

    by wallisweaver Jul 16, 2014 4:37 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 16, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    That's what happens when stocks hit irrational / bubble levels. Sandisk is up 100% this year - beating isn't enough. Stocks have hit levels that earnings and revenue simply can't support any longer. Fed money-printing or no, the bubble is bursting.

    Enjoy Intel at $34... while it lasts.

  • Reply to


    by bigcraigc Jul 16, 2014 2:57 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 16, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    Yep, the dumb money has definitely piled in. By all means, keep buying.

    People bought INTC at $70, people speculated on homes in 2007.

    There will always be people shouting down cautious voices... and then complaining that no one warned them.

  • Reply to


    by bigcraigc Jul 16, 2014 2:57 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 16, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    Really, a 3% short float is going to drive a 17% increase in the stock price? Now that all the dumb money has so clearly piled into the stock market, the bubble can finally burst.

  • Reply to


    by bigcraigc Jul 16, 2014 2:57 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 16, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    If you think 3% short is moving this stock - or will move it going forward - then you need to learn some remedial math.

  • Reply to

    Absolutely overdone

    by nelsonjedi1958 Jul 16, 2014 2:26 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 16, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    This is the final stage before the bubble bursts - euphoria. Intel preannounced and went up 7%. Then, over the next month, the stock steadily climbed another 6%. Then Intel reports largely in-line with the pre-announced numbers, and pops another 8%. The earnings only beat by 5% - and the stock has climbed 21% in 30 days. The stock is now up 50% in a year, with ~1/2 of that gain coming in the last month.

    At the current rate, INTC will be $85 by the end of the year. The scariest thing is that several of the people on this board will accept that number.

    At the start of the year, a 10% correction would have been a health correction that would then position the market for another leg up. But now we've gone from overvalued to 'irrational exuberance' and we could see a ~25% correction.

    The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Right up until the last day, all of the talking heads were insisting that the Nasdaq wasn't in a bubble in 2000. I know no one wants to hear this, and all the cheerleaders on this board will hike up their skirts and insist INTC should trade at $50+... but it shouldn't. And the longer we go into euphoria, the worse the correction is going to be.

  • Reply to

    Intel pops over 33/share AH

    by nuff101 Jul 15, 2014 2:25 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 15, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    I remember when 5% revenue growth didn't justify stock valuations at 15 year highs. The question is, are expectations really this low?

    Maybe I'm the crazy one and stocks will just keep going up 30% a year forever.

  • Reply to

    Not good enough

    by ca_fatboy Jul 15, 2014 4:10 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 15, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    'cause Intel never sells off after beating earnings?

    I'm not saying results weren't good, they were. I'm just guessing (and it is a guess) that they aren't good enough to continue the 20+% rally over the last month.

    AH is driven by HFT reacting to keywords. Don't make the mistake of thinking that's real. We'll find out tomorrow morning.

    Obviously, the results are good - they didn't miss (then I'd be talking about going back to $25/$26).

  • ca_fatboy by ca_fatboy Jul 15, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    a 3 cent beat - AH gains won't hold. Solid forward guidance, no doubt. It's subjective, and a guess - but I think Intel sells off tomorrow. We'll see. I could be wrong. It will be important to hear the call and see how Intel is progressing on their tablet goals. Strong PC sales don't change Intel's long term picture.

  • ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 15, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    If you haven't sold - you're not richer. I remember a lot of people talking about high Intel was going to run... when it was $70. I remember one guy cashing out (near $70) to buy a house, and everyone telling him he was a fool - that Intel was going higher and he'd be able to sell then and pay cash for the whole house.

    Then Intel went to $13.

    And no, I'm not predicting another 80% crash. Just sayin' - don't count your chickens.

    Before the internet bubble burst in 200, everyone said it wouldn't happen - Buffet even wrote a letter to his investors apologizing for missing the tech rally. Before the Housing bubble burst in 2007, everyone said it wouldn't happen.

    Now everyone says the Fed bubble won't burst...

  • Reply to

    Earnings will be....

    by dc7177 Jul 14, 2014 4:20 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 14, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Oh here we go. A bunch of nonsense predictions of earnings. It's only 24 hours away, can't we just wait and see? It's not like you know anything, anyway.

    Please, can we just forgo the dozens of emails predicting stupid levels of beats/misses. Let's all just be adults and wait until tomorrow afternoon.

    Your posting nonsense won't impact the results, I promise.

  • Reply to

    Sell before or after earnings?

    by cpashelly Jul 11, 2014 12:18 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 11, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    "Hey, I don't make this stuff up."

    Yes, you clearly do. First, you assert (with no basis) that OP is not a CPA. Then immediately state that CPA's must abide by regulation (not laws!) regarding usage of the term CPA.

    Problems with your logic (and it's hard to limit that list)

    1) You have no idea whether Shelly is a CPA
    2) If she is, than she's within her rights to label herself as such
    3) If she's not, then she's not obligated by those regulations
    4) CPA is a non-trademarked acronym, you have no idea whether she is using it to designate Certified Public Accountant, or some other meaning
    5) You can't understand the difference between inter-industry certification regulations and LAWS!
    6) You're an idiot

  • Reply to

    Need more brave shorts

    by dad_bargarow Jul 11, 2014 12:46 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 11, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    Why? There's only 3% short. If you think that's going to drive any sort of short-covering rally, then you're going to be sorely disappointed. Besides, any weak-hands were shaken out when Intel gapped from 28 to 30. Anyone short now has the stones to ride it out.

    If your best hope for another leg up is a short-covering rally, then you should just sell now.

  • Reply to

    Sell before or after earnings?

    by cpashelly Jul 11, 2014 12:18 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 11, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    I don't who you think I am, idiot, but check the ID. I've been posting under this name - and only this name - since 1998.

    I hereby represent that I am a CPA. Not just a CPA, but King of the CPA's.

    There, call the cops. Did I mention that you're an idiot.

  • Reply to

    Sell before or after earnings?

    by cpashelly Jul 11, 2014 12:18 PM
    ca_fatboy ca_fatboy Jul 11, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Ignore Wallis - he's the resident idiot. And his statement is typical of his level of knowledge - and his level of talking without any. Of course there is nothing illegal about using "CPA" in an internet name - even the thought is stupid. I could call myself FatboyPresidentOfTheUSA if I wanted.

    There is no such law preventing anyone from using any professional designation in any form of moniker in a social setting. Now, if you represent that you have professional qualifications, accept monetary compensation, and perform a form of service - then you'd be guilty of fraud.

    The thought that Wallis is in any form of accounting/financial profession is a scary thought.

    Regarding your original question - before Wallis began trolling your thread. Intel USUALLY sells of earnings announcements - even when they beat. I say usually - but just last quarter that wasn't the case. So you'll have to decide how much risk you want to take.

    I would think that in the short term - by the end of the year - there is more downside risk than upside potential. But if ANYONE knew what was going to happen in the stock market, they'd be posting from their 1,000 foot yacht.

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