regarding institutions DD you would think so. Yet, then why not disclose more details of pre rollout enrollments and commercial roll out and some type slide show highlighting action plan and timeline. TTOO is in the same boat in some regards but they have provided deal shops and retail guys working numbers to start modeling out opportunity. i think they sprayed the CC with merited enthusiasm but camouflaged some of the unknowns.. i believe they will get there and they have the cap runway . yet, i thinking well into 2016 before they truly monetize this platform
the other big question is the time to get approved for reimbursements as this will greatly stymie the commercial roll-out. patients will be less likely to use this disruptive and potentially out performing platform if they have to pay for it. just leads me to believe we have a long way to go before this model is bringing in meaningful revenue. dont get me wrong love the story but alot of patience is going to be required perhaps more then i wanted to admit.
Upon listening to CC last night again: I tuned out enthusiasm and was surprised at the dodging of questions. Such as the number of groups or doc signed up in pre commercial roll-out as they only would state it was oversubscribed by 500% . the same type of slippery elusiveness was highlighted about the number of reps planned or how they would ramp up roll-out and any type of rev or break-even model based on testing. the CC left me with more questions then answers. it was like a roadshow that served only appetizers. i¨m just thinking out loud in my humble and often ill informed process.
the tale of the tape will be seen over the next few trading sessions. one of the hypothesis that make some sense to me was that we´re in a lull between news as much of it comes in late into Q4 thus those looking for a window of sideways trade have hit a opening. they are not presenting at ASCO they only have a booth. thus, not expecting much from there.
Per Pepsi theory that the funds buying the last offering shorted the stock ( potentially ) on privileged information and they arranged the covering of shares with a pre arranged deal with a amt.
per his theory todays action on low volume it will get whacked back down as the shorts continue to walk it down perhaps to the jan gap of 4.36.
I watch not wanting to disprove his theory as if he is right it will be one heck of a learning curve for me. As, i have not seen this strategy implemented. i rather be wrong and learn and perhaps buy some shares in the mid 4s.
mann: great post very well thought and presented. thank you . Are you in the camp then we trade down into low 4s ? seems like a lot of risk on a news driven stock to capture another buck. Yet, I guess the other side of the argument is that the shorts are in control ? thanks in advance for any reply. blessings. RG
the testing and analytic will create a foundation of enthusiasm within the top docs in each category that can be leveraged for a wider and faster land grab versus heading to market with out the data set in hand. PS: the testing costs are nominal hardly a drag on burn these guys have a 2 year run way.
Jrdelane. I was about to post my take on technicals. The daily chart is showing the MACDwith a touch of positive divergence as the RSI is in oversold territory. NIce little reverse hammer showed as well. albeit on the late surge. Stoch look curled up and ready to turn. I believe we see 6 plus by next week.
interesting observation, yet my only challenge to this idea is that the funds that bought the secondary had already owned shares near the offering price thus they would be hurting themselves. You can argue that they will run it back up to make up losses on previous positions prior to secondary. Yet, I've been in the game awhile and I just don't think this is the case. my simple conclusion is that its new driven play and that everyone is positioned. gun powder has been utilized. thus , it trading down with no buy side interest until the new flock of momo traders come in with new news. MY humble opinion.
Per the tape and volume on Friday and Monday it seems new buyers stepped in versus just short covering. I believe the low volume today supports this thesis. I personally initiated a position on Friday. As, I assume others did. I now await news about the limited controlled roll-out to substantiate merit of tests from physician groups and patients. Regarding the noise on insiders needing to buy more. This team has been compensated with shares and options as part of there compensation package. As, all bio start up teams off set the more modest salaries and risk by upside in ownership. So, why would they go spend their cash to by more shares ? they don´t need too. Regarding the roll-out it seems like it methodical and strategic to ultimately capture a big foot print in this 15bb market. I´m personally going to remain patient and excited to be involved with these guys. Per all my Due Diligence , I believe TROV could have a 2 handle on it in the 12 months. All the above is my very humble opinion. Blessings.
Sentiment: Strong Buy