regarding the offering great question. My gut answer based on experience is that you can never count on a buy out even if its your end game or a viable exit. thus, you need to be prepared for a deal not going , secondly, a depleting war chest can weaken your leverage - stance in a protracted negotiation as the acquiring party can use it against you if when negotiating in good faith. The more i ponder a buy out the more makes it makes sense from a mass global roll out approach. potential candidates , usually suspects all have synergistic tie ins. whether it be relationships with doctors, sales teams, lab scalability and ins with the reimbursers.
great points Bio. Alot of my thesis on a buy out is based on my own jaded experiences of getting products to market .I just think they see the leverage and economies of scale by walking in a established foot print versus trying to cut out there own. regarding reimbursements, i believe this will come yet not without resistance. Yet, I agree with MGMT strategy of letting the data due the talking. albeit with out it in place any roll-out will be limited. but, lets say that TROV turns on the facet of testing with a discount prior to reimbursement approval therby establishing the market then just change the billing model post approval. now , imagine a established testing company behind them durig the beta roll out . just challenging conventional thinking. as, my own start up days are behind me.
I make investments based on market opportunity. Which led me to get involved here. Yet, as my posts highlight i use technical indicators to enter and exit. After, thinking through the different sides of this opportunity this weekend. I believe MGMT might be priming this for acquisition in the near term. I was led to this believe by their quasi undefined macro roll out strategy , including there lack of ramp up of sales reps. Thus, it leads me to consider they want to team up with a company that has an established and creditable sales infrastructure in place. Thereby; allowing them to add their product on someones menu. They have been kinda cagey about disclosing REV model and very adamant about data, data which also tells me they´re not focused on making money but focused on building the barriers to entry ( IP ) and getting proof of concept and willingness of adoption that all lends itself to getting the best deal possible. As, the matrix of valuation will not be based on current or historical sales but future sales. thus, it comes down to IP and Adoption. My gut tells me they are talking to potential buyers now .... All the above is my humble often naive opinion.
very little buy side interest. I agree with your early analysis of being in a trade range here with a 5 floor. i believe we could fill gap at 5.78. buyers will step in. yet, we will still have the issue of over 3mm shares short .
Nice Technical DD JR. I believe the volume next week will really help us understand the tale here. As, nervous retail shorts could have created a melt up only to be leaned on by the generals. PS: great color on tomorrow makes liars of us. have a great wkend. Blessings .
Any thoughts on tape today. felt like some short covering. yet, with 3.3mm short and perhaps a blend of buying its fraction of whats left. the daily chart is improving as seen in the macs , rsi and stoch. yet, momentum is still very low. the weekly signals another leg down as the macd is showing negative divergence. not seeing any news events until late Q4 thus the theory that todays action was melt up on short shores to catch new buyers on next leg down.
aplogize for mis communication , they have proof of concept now need proof of adoption. no need to be hostile . just sharing humble opinions. praise jesus
they will need proof of adoption not just concept. buy out possible but the can needs to be kicked way down the road for both side of a deal. yet, very viable exit strategy for trov shareholders.
not worried at all. happy to buy more in the 4s or low 5s happy if it pops. as ,I stated this is just a learning for me. plenty of dry powder. just not willing to chase anything in this market. wait for things to come to you. blessings. have a great day.
watching the tape. waiting for the whack. yet,early volume is high. new buyers or short covering fake melt up to walk it down ... interesting case study here.
my point was simply they need the reimbursement contracts in place prior to mass rollout. which could take a lot more time then anticipated as it layered with bureaucracies. I've been there as a CEO of a health care start up. it was brutal.
regarding institutions DD you would think so. Yet, then why not disclose more details of pre rollout enrollments and commercial roll out and some type slide show highlighting action plan and timeline. TTOO is in the same boat in some regards but they have provided deal shops and retail guys working numbers to start modeling out opportunity. i think they sprayed the CC with merited enthusiasm but camouflaged some of the unknowns.. i believe they will get there and they have the cap runway . yet, i thinking well into 2016 before they truly monetize this platform
the other big question is the time to get approved for reimbursements as this will greatly stymie the commercial roll-out. patients will be less likely to use this disruptive and potentially out performing platform if they have to pay for it. just leads me to believe we have a long way to go before this model is bringing in meaningful revenue. dont get me wrong love the story but alot of patience is going to be required perhaps more then i wanted to admit.