ps. its going to be hard to find entries now sub 3.50. its going to look cheap now in a month.
good post. agree, tape looks good. seems like a great buyout on multiple fronts. the talent pool alone has to be worth 100mm, yet alone the license deals. i believe the short intesest got cut in half on wed. if the momo continues we could see 5 by jan.
I was surprised to learn that a lot of the losses came from their car insurance division versus the commercial side of their business. I was thinking it would be more from the aftermath of sandy of the commercial side. yet the settled over 85% of those claims back in February. I´m looking forward to looking underneath the hood as I think everyone else is from wall street to main street. yet, my guess they will be taken out prior to earnings thus little will revealed in the short term. I know time is ticking on them for a rating downgrade in inevitable if they try to go at it alone. thus, the forward press on getting some I-bankers involved to find a white night. I'm sure mgmt. is communicating with the rating agencies trying to buy some time. depending on the reserve hole, if its greater then perhaps 6 multiple on the 110mm they communicated previously this is a hard sell. yet, buffet came in a took over some of the major asbesotos underwriters and ended up looking pretty smart. tower mgmt really dropped the ball on assessing their risk and executing contingency plan. this is not a pretty situation yet I believe their could be a happy ending for those positioning long positions sub 8 pps. its certainly not for the faint of heart . i´m wrong more often then right, just ask my wife. so, I hope it works out for all involved , including employee´s, policy holders, investors and the family of mgmt. I want to mention, that I enjoy reading all the posts on this board from longs and shorts , its just the fear mongers and promoters that make me upset. the world has a lot of problems the last thing we need is to scaring one another. character counts. be blessed.
my experience in raising cap for my own co´s is that it wil come as a fixed comisión of the deal. you don´t pain retainers to 3 Banks . winner take all situation. it would reckless to pay 3 retainers considerig the situation. were talking about shoping a one page deal sheet, getting a bite. getting the pricniples in a board room and hashing out a deal. this is not a KKR - nabisco deal but a 24 hr negitation and paper it up. thats my humble opinión. i could be wrong. thanks for keeping it civil. carácter counts and you seem to kow that.
i would sit on the sidelines , re group, chalk it up to a painful leading lesson and have a drink tonight and enjoy your family.
i think shorts will cover knowing a deal could be annouced by monday. longs will cost average using the techicals as a indicator. the 60, 15 and 5 are looking flatlined, macd is showing some positive convergence and well we all know what the RSI looks like. longs willl cost average to breakeven. my 2 cents. 'please no slamming. make this fun not attacking.
they could raise capitol and move back to 12-15 in 12 months. thats thier only leverage on a deal. yet, a buyer is going to want a steep discount to book to deal with the clean up. the current MGMT wants out so anything to sabe face they will take. my 2 cents.
its unlikely. tey could see some of their good paper, a factoring if you will. lower the risk and take on a new loan . yet this ceo days are done. i believe its a buyout for 9
Lee Michael H Chairman, President, CEO 1,233,460 Sale at $10.22 $12,612,020
not sure if your long and #$%$ or short and trying to scare people . yet, they signed a NDA and cannot talk. the ceo is done. the co will not survice past next week under the same name.