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cadmium_telluride 9 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Dec 28, 2007
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  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride 15 hours ago Flag

    Be rest assured that the coal turn around will be bigger than any we had seen in the history. This is an incredible opportunity to make a lot of money. Stick with coal for the super coal cycle!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Aug 12, 2014 9:53 PM Flag

    Most Americans cannot even begin to comprehend how severe a water crisis China is experiencing. People there are actually very desperate.

    In America, when we talk about water preservation, we talk about cutting down irrigating our back yard. Maybe sprinkle three times a week instead of each day. We talk about maybe we take only one shower per day, instead of two, one in the morning and one in the afternoon. We would not think about cutting off brushing our teeth altogether to save water, would we? We would not think about stop drinking coffee, or stop having soups for dinner, would we?

    In the PingDingShan city in Henan Province, in a normal year, the per capital water resource in that city is only 1/16th of the average of China. And China's per capital average water resource is only 1/4th of the global average. And we were talking about a normal year. And the per capital water resource in America of course is much higher than the global average.

    So showering in water was long ago a luxury in that city. And brushing your teeth is a luxury, too. Washing and cooking leafy vegetable is now a luxury, as is doing laundries.

    As of now, the reservoir which is the ONLY water source of that city has run BELOW the dead level. They are already utilizing what little water is remaining below the dead level. It can only sustain another ten days. After that, they run out of all water and they must either shut everything down, or some how figure out how to transport water from some where else into that city. And what happens next? Remember, right now is supposed to be the raining season and the reservoirs are supposed to be filled up in preparation to the dry season which comes up next!!!

    If you begin to comprehend the water situation in China, you will know where coal should move globally.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • China Experience the Worst Drought in 50+ Years!

    That's extremely bullish for coal and set coal up for a super cycle.

    China's drought is not purely nature made. It was 10% due to nature and 90% man caused. The destruction of Northern China's underground water table has reached the critical point that in the past when there is drought people can always dig wells and fetch underground water to irrigate and problem solved. They can't do it any more. The wells are getting so deep, and so little water comes out that poor peasant can't afford to keep spending money to dig wells. It's a tragedy.

    China must come to terms that a big factor that destroyed its underground water resource is out of control coal mining by the private sector. Mining one ton of coal destroys 40 tons of underground water resource. China produces 4 billion tons of coal a year, about half of the global total. That's 160 billion tons of water resource destroyed per year. China must realize that it MUST choose between coal and water and must crack down on coal production to survive, because you can not survive without water.

    Residents in a city in Henan Province would refrain buying leafy vegetables these days but would eat fried pies instead, because it costs too much water to wash and cook leafy vegetables.

    So crack down on coal production to protect water is a must. That's bullish on the supply end.

    On the demand end, drought means much lower hydro-electricity yields and that mandates more coal to be consumed to generate more electricity.

    The drought also means more electricity is needed to pump water from deeper wells for consumption and irrigation. To think about pumping water from 500 or 600 feet down is not a small task. It consumes a lot of electricity. Just do the calculation.

    China produces and consumes half of the world's coal. What's happening there is extremely bullish.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My home town: Riots

    by run_by_hr Aug 11, 2014 4:47 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Aug 12, 2014 9:23 PM Flag

    The coal super cycle is ongoing and it probably has started. But you won't notice it until long after the fact, and you won't appreciate its full scale until long after the super cycle has run its entire course.

    It would have been easier if a lot of people can predict precisely before hand when does a super cycle begins, and when it ends, and when was perfect time to get in and get out. Unfortunately no one can make that prediction. Me neither. I could only predict that a super cycle is ahead of us. As for precisely, when and how it starts, and when and how it ends, I have nothing to say.

    A super cycle has to start from something ridiculous low, like $3 stock price, and go to ridiculously, like a $300 share price. You won't not call $3 to $3.50 a super cycle, or $100 to $120, would you?

    To deny that, and to claim that since the share price is at $3, it will forever stay at this low, and that coal is forever an obsolete fossil fuel, when the world is running out of oil, and there is not much natural gas to sustain us for long, and alternative energy is too little to scale up, is rather ridiculous.

    The Coal King is more important in the near future, that it ever was in recent history.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jul 30, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    The fact of the matter is at the moment, both US coal stockpile, as well as natural gas storage are at historic lows. Economy 101 should mean that consumers must be actively stock up in expectation of the coming supply squeeze, but they continue to de-stock, defying logic. This must be an aberration and can not last for long before they panic.

    China is a good example, every one has an illusion that China's coal is over-supplied. In reality, their coal stockpile at power plants dwindled to 7 days or less supply in many places, which is dangerously low. Recently heat waves hit many part of China. Just when every one needed to crank up their air conditional units to fight the heat wave, there is widespread power failure in many cities because the power generation can not keep up with the demand.

    China was blessed (cursed) with excessive flooding in 2012 and 2013 which brought in higher than normal hydro-electricity, curbing coal demand. Not any more in 2014. Right now it was supposed to be the flooding season in China. But there were drought report every where. They have to cut hydro-electricity generation and keep the water in the reservoir for longer. So that will boost coal demand. Mean while coal production will collapse. Most coal mines in China are now operating with heavy loss. The first thing the Chinese coal bosses do when you have a loss is they CUT worker's salary or renege the salaries altogether. This is UNTHINKABLE in America: In America you may be able to lay off workers but you can not cut your worker's salary and ask them to continue to work. But in China they can get away of cutting worker's pay and tell the workers to either walk away or continue to work like a dog. Guess how long can the Chinese worker continue to dig coal without pay? Probably not very long.

    The coal is turning around big time for sure. Hold on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • US coal is coming back powerfully.

    Check the EIA data, for the January to April period , electricity generation from coal for the year 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 444774 GWH, 505286 GWH and 548297 GWH respectively, showing a very clear and powerful return to normal. Mean while natural gas generation went from 368450 GWH to 329294 GWH to 318954 GWH, on clear decline. Coal is now 41% of US electricity generation, so it is completely back to norm.

    Mean while US coal production is still curtailed, at less than 19M tons per week. Since 87% of domestic coal is used for electricity generation, that figures to 2.36M tons per day, or good to generate 4342 GWH of electricity per day. But in the first4 months (120 days) of 2014, US coal generation was 548297 GWH, averaging 4569 GWH per day, or costing 2.50M tons of coal per day. Comparing supply and demand, there is a 0.14M tons per day shortage, which is driving down US coal stockpile.

    The coal sector in US is turning around big time. It will be reflected in coal price and coal stock share price soon. As I always stated, the coal sector is always cyclic.

    In China, coal electricity generation is still growing at 5%+ yearly. In 2014, due to unusual drought condition, there will be a big fall in hydro-electricity generation compared with 2012 and 2013. That's good news to coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From $5 to $6 takes only FOUR days! That's the kind of beginning of a super coal cycle we talk about!

    We are in business. Hold on folks. Don't sell too easily.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hmmm , of all the coal stocks

    by divin4tacos Jun 23, 2014 12:41 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jun 23, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    And for hours they were able to lock both bid price and ask price at precisely $3.73. I wonder how that works. Are they selling from one hand to the other hand and just pay trade commissions for nothing?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    US Coal Is Entering a Super Bull Cycle

    by cadmium_telluride Feb 3, 2014 12:26 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jun 19, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    US coal super bull cycle is alive and well and kicking, and is screaming to the world that it is here and roaring. Don't make mistake: Any super cycle MUST necessary start from a super low and super dismay, give away price, and go towards a ridiculously high price. Going from $90 per share to $99 per share, that's no super cycle at all.

    Super bull cycle is going from current below $4 a share of ACI, knowing the same coal shares fetched $60 or $70 per share a few years ago, with every one thinking that the coal industry is fading into the sunset and that five thousand years of human history of coal mining and consumption is ending for good here and now, knowing full well that coal is still responsible for 42% of US electricity generation, and then in one or two years ACI shall move close to $100 or $150 per share, and every one wondered why the world thought that coal was obsolete when the entire world faces a global oil crisis, and there is not enough natural gas, and why nobody foresee the collapse of the un-sustainable shall gas Ponzi Scheme, and why all those folks who refuse to touch ACI below $4 per share now fights hand over fist to pay $100 to buy a share of ACI.

    That is happening soon and that is what I call super coal cycle. I intend to hold my coal shares for the entire up cycle of this coal super cycle and have no intention to reduce my coal investment significantly until I see $100+ share prices. And I have posted enough on this board on coal that I am reluctant to repeat any further. But do not post does NOT mean a bit at all that I have given up on coal. Not at all. I just decided that fools can not be educated no matter how hard you try.

    I often made mistake on timing. No question about it and I always admit that. I timed this super coal cycle way too early that's for sure. If you want timing advice, don't ask me. But I bet on the eventuality and certainty that this super cycle is happening, and bet patience, not timing, to reap profits from it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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