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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

cadmium_telluride 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2014 11:48 AM Member since: Dec 28, 2007
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  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jul 30, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    The fact of the matter is at the moment, both US coal stockpile, as well as natural gas storage are at historic lows. Economy 101 should mean that consumers must be actively stock up in expectation of the coming supply squeeze, but they continue to de-stock, defying logic. This must be an aberration and can not last for long before they panic.

    China is a good example, every one has an illusion that China's coal is over-supplied. In reality, their coal stockpile at power plants dwindled to 7 days or less supply in many places, which is dangerously low. Recently heat waves hit many part of China. Just when every one needed to crank up their air conditional units to fight the heat wave, there is widespread power failure in many cities because the power generation can not keep up with the demand.

    China was blessed (cursed) with excessive flooding in 2012 and 2013 which brought in higher than normal hydro-electricity, curbing coal demand. Not any more in 2014. Right now it was supposed to be the flooding season in China. But there were drought report every where. They have to cut hydro-electricity generation and keep the water in the reservoir for longer. So that will boost coal demand. Mean while coal production will collapse. Most coal mines in China are now operating with heavy loss. The first thing the Chinese coal bosses do when you have a loss is they CUT worker's salary or renege the salaries altogether. This is UNTHINKABLE in America: In America you may be able to lay off workers but you can not cut your worker's salary and ask them to continue to work. But in China they can get away of cutting worker's pay and tell the workers to either walk away or continue to work like a dog. Guess how long can the Chinese worker continue to dig coal without pay? Probably not very long.

    The coal is turning around big time for sure. Hold on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • US coal is coming back powerfully.

    Check the EIA data, for the January to April period , electricity generation from coal for the year 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 444774 GWH, 505286 GWH and 548297 GWH respectively, showing a very clear and powerful return to normal. Mean while natural gas generation went from 368450 GWH to 329294 GWH to 318954 GWH, on clear decline. Coal is now 41% of US electricity generation, so it is completely back to norm.

    Mean while US coal production is still curtailed, at less than 19M tons per week. Since 87% of domestic coal is used for electricity generation, that figures to 2.36M tons per day, or good to generate 4342 GWH of electricity per day. But in the first4 months (120 days) of 2014, US coal generation was 548297 GWH, averaging 4569 GWH per day, or costing 2.50M tons of coal per day. Comparing supply and demand, there is a 0.14M tons per day shortage, which is driving down US coal stockpile.

    The coal sector in US is turning around big time. It will be reflected in coal price and coal stock share price soon. As I always stated, the coal sector is always cyclic.

    In China, coal electricity generation is still growing at 5%+ yearly. In 2014, due to unusual drought condition, there will be a big fall in hydro-electricity generation compared with 2012 and 2013. That's good news to coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From $5 to $6 takes only FOUR days! That's the kind of beginning of a super coal cycle we talk about!

    We are in business. Hold on folks. Don't sell too easily.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hmmm , of all the coal stocks

    by divin4tacos Jun 23, 2014 12:41 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jun 23, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    And for hours they were able to lock both bid price and ask price at precisely $3.73. I wonder how that works. Are they selling from one hand to the other hand and just pay trade commissions for nothing?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    US Coal Is Entering a Super Bull Cycle

    by cadmium_telluride Feb 3, 2014 12:26 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jun 19, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    US coal super bull cycle is alive and well and kicking, and is screaming to the world that it is here and roaring. Don't make mistake: Any super cycle MUST necessary start from a super low and super dismay, give away price, and go towards a ridiculously high price. Going from $90 per share to $99 per share, that's no super cycle at all.

    Super bull cycle is going from current below $4 a share of ACI, knowing the same coal shares fetched $60 or $70 per share a few years ago, with every one thinking that the coal industry is fading into the sunset and that five thousand years of human history of coal mining and consumption is ending for good here and now, knowing full well that coal is still responsible for 42% of US electricity generation, and then in one or two years ACI shall move close to $100 or $150 per share, and every one wondered why the world thought that coal was obsolete when the entire world faces a global oil crisis, and there is not enough natural gas, and why nobody foresee the collapse of the un-sustainable shall gas Ponzi Scheme, and why all those folks who refuse to touch ACI below $4 per share now fights hand over fist to pay $100 to buy a share of ACI.

    That is happening soon and that is what I call super coal cycle. I intend to hold my coal shares for the entire up cycle of this coal super cycle and have no intention to reduce my coal investment significantly until I see $100+ share prices. And I have posted enough on this board on coal that I am reluctant to repeat any further. But do not post does NOT mean a bit at all that I have given up on coal. Not at all. I just decided that fools can not be educated no matter how hard you try.

    I often made mistake on timing. No question about it and I always admit that. I timed this super coal cycle way too early that's for sure. If you want timing advice, don't ask me. But I bet on the eventuality and certainty that this super cycle is happening, and bet patience, not timing, to reap profits from it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride May 5, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    I have been a long time advocater for palladium investment and advocater for SWC. You all know me.

    But let me remind people. Besides palladium and platinum, SWC also produces some nickel as by-product.

    Nickel is flying! The reason is Indonesia, supplier of 19% of the world's nickel, announced a BAN on nickel export. Hold your SWC shares firm! And hold for Russia to ban export of palladium to the west!

    I wish Indonesia also bans coal exports soon! Be sure to pick up some coal players ANR, ACI, BTU.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I am Buying Massively Tomorrow!

    by cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 3:11 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride May 4, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    Fine. If you think I am losing credibility, then please do exactly the opposite and short ANR here and hold it for at least one year.

    My investment is based on the notion that the coal sector is cyclic and must eventually move from the extreme low back to extreme high again. That notion is based on logic and common sense, NOT based on any one'c credibility. If you don't believe that notion, then try to debunk it from logic and reasoning. If you can not attack that notion on logic, then you have to accept it. Once again this is not a credibility issue, this is a logic and reasoning issue. If I tell you one plus one equals two are you going to say I am wrong just because you do not believe me?

    The market has been illogical and irrational for long. But we know once in a while it returns to common sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I am Buying Massively Tomorrow!

    by cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 3:11 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride May 2, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    A broken clock is correct twice a day. That's better record than any investor can claim. Who can consistently make two correct calls each day? No one can. If it requires clock precision calls to make money in stocks, then no one can.

    A good investors makes 50% good calls and 50% bad calls and he still manages to make a lot of profits in the long term.

    My strategy allows me to make money if half of my calls are correct and half is incorrect. On the correct half, I turn $10K into $100K, on the incorrect half, I reduce $10K to $1K and have to put another $10K cash in to bring it back to $11K, and when it turns around, $11K becomes $110K.

    The point is that I cannot lose for as long as the sector will eventually turn around. The bet that the sector is always cyclic and always turn around is as certain as the bet that a broken clock is always correct twice a day. You can bring it to the bank that a broken clock is guaranteed to be correct twice a day.

    Are you going to say that the coal sector is no longer cyclic and no longer comes back? Are you going to bet that a broken clock will never indicate the right time ever again?

    I am looking at my portfolio and could not believe how many coal shares I have today, bought at super cheap prices. Do I have enough money to buy these much shares back in 2011 when they were $30 or $40 per share? No! But now I have these many shares and I can ride them back to $50 or higher. That's how you make money. Laugh at me just as people laughed at me for holding SWC at $1.70 per share in early 2009. I sticked it out and win big back then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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