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Chesapeake Energy Corporation Message Board

cadmium_telluride 4920 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 25, 2015 9:34 PM Member since: Dec 28, 2007
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  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jan 25, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    So at this point. I am not going to make a timing call. I am unable to predict when they will finally notice the coal price, and realize that they need to cut production to return the market supply demand to normal. Until they do so, coal investment is going to suffer. There is no light at the end of tunnel, UNTIL and UNLESS they start to do something to remove the excessive supply.

    I am not going to sell my shares at $1. I will hold on, whether these coal companies all go bankrupt or not. I still believe economy 101 will return to work, and coal price will return to normal. I just do not see what will finally get their butts moving in the right direction.

    Same is true, and even more so, in the shale oil and gas industry. They plunged more than three trillion dollars of investment money in the shale development, even since the start of the so called shale revolution. They have not yet seen a single penny of investment return for the three trillion dollars of wasted money. When do they run out of the foolish money?

    When do basic economy 101 rule return that smart money chases where profitability is? It is surely not In the shale sector. Is three trillion dollars wasted not enough?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride Jan 25, 2015 9:27 PM Flag

    I thought coal as a a commodity sector should always be cyclic. Basic economy 101 of supply demand should dominant. When supply is too high, price drops and producers cut production to return to balance. Vise versa, when supply is tight, price goes up and producer increase production to balance with demand. Of course the consuming sector also will do their part to respond to price signal.

    I was wrong. The economy 101 has broken down. For three freaking years, the entire world shut their eyes blind and gives no d--mned response to the price signal whatsoever. Not coal consumers, and not coal producers. Producers have barely cut production regardless of the un-profitable coal price. They continue to invest heavily on capital spending to maintain production level, despite of the fact that they need to preserve their cash and can not afford the capital spending to expand production.

    JRCC and PCX went bankrupt. In a normal world, when you go bankrupt you go out of business and shut the shop down. Some how they merely changed share holders and get another batch of bank loans and continue produce happily at a heavy loss. I see no production cut from these two bankrupt coal company.

    So I am at loss. If three years low coal price is not strong signal enough to tell the coal producers you've got to cut production. If even bankruptcy cannot force producer to cut production. Then what market force can eventually force they to cut back and return the market to normal? Some thing has got to give but I do not know what it is. The way it goes, if coal price drops to zero, they will still manage to produce the same amount of coal, and put free coal on the roadside to beg people to take them. But they will not cut production.

    The bottom line is had producers cut production aggressively three years ago, things have been taken care of and we would see a normal market today, with normal coal stock price. But as bad as it is now, going to below $1 stock price, they still do not cut!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jan 12, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Yes from 2000 to 2008 natural gas price for FOUR TIMES shot above $10 or more. But from 2009 to today, six years, it never shot above $10 even once, despite of the nature that shale gas wells decline way much faster than conventional wells, and the supply is thus more unstable. It's just because there is an endless stream of foolish money supplied to the shale industry to keep them drilling like crazy. And producers would prefer to keep drilling and supply the market with free gas if delivering continued production growth makes investors happy and makes the investment money keep coming. Who cares shale gas profitability when the foolish money keeps coming?

    All counted, more than THREE TRILLION DOLLARS have been poured into the shale industry, and the industry has yet to show it can earn a penny of profit from has revenue. In a normal world, investment money chases where profitability is. Such an enormous amount of foolish money keep chasing an un-profitable sector, the shale gas sector, is unprecedented! But it can not last forever!

    Coal has no need to exist if they can keep producing natural gas and keep supplying the market at a heavy loss, and investors are happy to pour trillions of dollars into the shale gas sector and do not care a bit that they are not getting any revenue return. But this insanity can not last forever. The shale bubble will burst. It just will take longer than any one expected. I am hanging on to coal, however long it takes for things to turn around.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Jan 8, 2015 4:06 AM Flag

    Now the good news is the sudden and free fall oil price collapse, which no one expects, destroys about $200B of lost oil revenue of the big oil/gas industry. This is lost capital money which is no longer available to they to keep drilling wells. I hope this finally stops the insane growth of the un-profitable shale industry.

    And I hope this is a wake up call to oil/gas investors. The irrationality has reached an extreme. Out of the energy investment mix, 99% of money invested in energy is invested in oil and natural gas, and only 1% is invested in the coal sector. Now the foolish people suddenly discover that when 99% of people rush to one side, it's not profitable as the oil and gas price collapsed. When investment money exodus from the oil/gas sector and well drilling finally stops, production will collapse as well declines catch up, and energy prices, including coal price, will finally return to normal.

    From 2000 to 2008, natural gas has FOUR times shot up to over $10. From 2009 to today, 2015, gas price has not even once sot above $10, thanks to the insanity of so called shale gas revolution. Maybe, finally it is time to go back to show the nature of natural gas being extremely volatile. May we see $10 gas again this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Two and a half years ago I saw natural gas drop to $1.90 and coal price dropped in sync. I expected a quick turn around. I pin pointed the turning around of natural gas price on April 19, 2012. But I was wrong in predicting the subsequent collapse of the shale industry and skyrocketing natural gas price. But I was wrong.

    Folks still remember back in April 2012, practically every shale gas company vowed to cut production, as $2 gas was simply not profitable. It was far below profitability. But none of the gas producers took their production cut promise seriously. Those production cut promises were soon forgotten. Everyone continue to drill like crazy and produce like crazy, against rapid shale well declines. Shale wells decline faster. But producers burn money and keep drilling even faster, building up more debts. And gas price remained largely below $4, now below $3. And there is no sign producers will pause their well drilling.

    The reason is that the hugely un-profitable shale industry hinges on obtaining endless supply of fresh capital money to survive, in terms of new investment money and bank loans. The only way to continue to receive this money is deliver impressive production growth quarter after quarter, year after year, regardless of low price. Because investors and bankers love to see growth. How could total production nationwide be kept in check, if every producer claims to be growing exponentially?

    As long as they continue to have money to spend to grow relentlessly, they keep natural gas price low and keep their shale industry un-profitable. And that keeps foolish investors hooked up to the incredible growth story of the shale industry, not realizing that the entire industry is un-profitable under current gas prices. But that also keeps coal depressed. That's what happened.

    Now the good news is the sudden and free fall oil price collapse, which no one expects, destroys about $200B of lost oil revenue of the big oil/gas industry.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 9, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Obama was in office since 2009. US coal sector made a high in early 2011. So politics has NOTHING to do with what's happening in the coal sector, despite of all the rhetoric. If politicians had their ways they would have already shut down all coal power plants of America. But they can't do it.

    Obama's stated energy policy is "All of the above", coal included. His famous "bankrupt all coal plants" quote was completely taken out of context. If you look up where he said that, and what he said before and after that sentence, you will see that it was completely distorted from what he really meant by being taken out of the original context.

    Coal consumption in the power sector was low in 2012 due to an exceptionally warm winter, and catastrophically low natural gas price due to excessive natural gas inventory. Even since, the 2013 coal consumption was higher than 2012. And the rolling 12 month consumption thus far in 2014 is higher than 2013. Coal consumption is back to 95% of the 2011 level, while production is still curtailed to more than 10% lower than 2011 level. The sector is turning around for sure.

    US power river coal needs see $14 or $15 per ton to be profitable. At the same time less than $100 per ton will bankrupt many Chinese, Indonesian and Australian coal companies. It is ridiculous to believe that almost the entire US coal sector (BTU, ANR + ACI) will be wiped out while those coal mines of China, Indonesia and Australia will remain intact. The opposite will happen, giving huge opportunity to low cost and high quality US coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I have nothing to say.

    I will wait until the market allows me to say "I was right".

    By by then, I still have no need to say any thing.

    I stick with my conviction. The coal sector is cyclic. The US is still burning a lot of coal. Coal is still the fossil fuel king. That has not changed regardless of the insanity of the market, knocking down a necessary sector 10% a day relentlessly.

    The entire US coal sector is worth roughly $3 per US citizen. Would Americans prefer to receive $5 each but be deprived of all coal supply and allow their power grid to fall into a permanent blackout as all coal is gone. Or would Americans prefer not to get the $3 free money, but prefer to keep their coal and keep the power grid running? Which more valuable: $3 per person? Or coal for electricity?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Fine. I timed the coal super cycle wrong and thus far the sector is still at the bottom, not started to rally yet. I am, of course disappointed. But I insist that a super cycle is ahead of us, and that coal will be extremely hot in the near future due to all the fundamental factor.

    I repeatedly point out that the coal sector is a cyclic sector which surely WILL rebound.

    You can discredit me all you want. You can take the opposite. You are free to believe that my cyclic sector notion is wrong. Actually you can believe that the coal is fading into history, thus all coal stocks should go to zero. It's perfectly fine for you to believe so, and what you should do is short coal stocks at $1.50 per share, and expect them to go to zero soon. You will make tons of money doing that. Thus I advise you to short coal right here right at $1.50 per share.

    Do what you want. I stick to my foolish conviction to hold my shares firm here. I pound on the table to urge you do precisely the opposite and short coal stocks at $1.50 and short all the way to zero. You do the opposite, you and going to make tons of money and rip tons of profits shorting. You are going to make $1B profit shorting a company worth no more than $0.1B in market valuation. Wait that's mathematically impossible. But who cares about logic any more? You are going to make me $1M poorer and yourself $1M richer, by taking another $1M from me by shorting coal. Once again I do not have $1M to lose to the shorts. The shorts have $1M to lsoe to me. But why bother with logic.

    You stick with your shorts, and I stick with my longs. That's fair game. Just do not run away!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    So the question is do YOU know enough to cover now, and turn around to long. Or you are going to have no clue and stay with your short till the price recover to triple digits? So be honest: Are you still short now?

    The market is beyond ridiculous at this point. You guys look at the absurdity of the market, and see that I am the only one who insist of rational thinking, and stick to my shares. And you think the market is reasonable? You are not laughing at Mr. Market? You are laughing at me who hold shares? You compliment those who give out their shares today? You think these people who give up their shares today did something smart? Yeah go join those folks and laugh at our bag holders.

    All I want is when I hold my shares to triple digit share price, and I laugh my way to the bank, you will still laugh at me at that point. You will never laugh at the fold who give up shares at $1.50 and then two years later spend 150 to buy the same share. You call that smart move.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    So what do YOU know about the coal sector? What do YOU have to say about why they are pounding down the coal sector 10% down each day relentlessly? In light of the fact that US coal stockpile is already at record low, and market supply demand fundamental says coal price SHOULD go up at this point? It's crazy.

    I have no more to say about how the market reacts. Because there is no more logic or rationale.

    I am beyond broke at thing point. But I still hold quite some shares. Not much in dollar terms, but quite a bit in number of shares. I wish I have resource to add more shares. Below $2.00 it's no longer marginable. The only sure thing is I am not going to give out my shares. I hold on to them. When these shares recover to triple digits, I will laugh all my way to the bank.

    I rode SWC down to $1.70 in 2008-2009 and I held on to the shares firm and I added as much as I could. I was laughing my way to the bank when SWC recovered to $25 in 2011, and my margin strategy gained me nearly 50 fold. So my asset value was multiplied by nearly 50 times from the low point. This time in the coal sector I am going to gain an even more terribly huge multiplier. Maybe by several hundred fold. You take any small number and multiply by 500, it's going to be HUGE. I am beyond broke, but I am definitely not at zero. There is still something left to allow me to multiply by 500 times. Just watch and see.

    The cyclic coal sector SHOULD RECOVER very soon and very rapidly.

    If you want to give out your shares here, you are welcome to do so. If you just give your shares to me for free, I would really appreciate your donation. Please give your shares to me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TODAYS NEWS

    by muckahoy88 Oct 8, 2014 11:43 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    What coal miners need to do is not walk on the street for political rally. What they need to do is walk out of their jobs altogether and find another job. Let no one dig coal any more. Let their plants run out of coal. Let the American power grid collapse. And then people will realize that we still need coal.

    Anything short of that, well, there is no rationality or logic any more in the market place. Are power plants still burning coal, or are they not? Is EIA not showing that US coal stockpile is already at a dangerously low level?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    The share price movement can not be justified by any logic or reason. It's just crazy. No market fundamental justify for the coal sector to drop 10% every day, day after day, without end.

    According to EIA data, US coal stockpile reached a low of 125M tons in July 2014 , a record low. That compares to the 203M record high level in May 2012. So the supply demand balance was able to digest away 78M tons of coal stockpile. In another word, demand exceeded supply by 78M tons. The production curtailment of the coal industry works, and is continue to be working, although I wish they curtail more swiftly.

    On the demand side, coal generation in July was 150 million MWH, versus 113M for natural gas. The natural gas share dropped from 139M in July 2012. So coal is still king and natural gas can not replace coal.

    The coal sector remains a cyclic commodity sector, as it always is. All fundamentals, the low stockpile, the high demand, continued coal production curtailment, all point to that coal price SHOULD recover at this point, and coal stock price should return to previous high. It should work that way, unless coal stockpile figure can go to zero and then can go to negative. Then the coal stockpile figure can continue to drop to negative infinity and no one gives a damn if power plants have negative stockpile for electricity generation. It might happen in a fantasy world. But logic does not work that way.

    The bottom line. The market has no logic or reason any more. There are only two things left:
    1. Share price movement, regardless of any rationality
    2. Your transaction, do you buy or sell here.

    Out of these two things, the price is one thing that the shorties take absolute control. They can move price to any low level they want. They can short shares at $1.00 or $0.50. If shorts hand out shares at $0.50 they can and no one is going to prevent them. If they move the price to negative, they CAN. They can give you shares not only for free.

    But YOU don't have to sell!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride Oct 2, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    What a joke. Why do you people sell? One day you can't get rid of WLT fast enough. The next shot up 20%+. Wait till teh day when WLT can double or triple in a day. WLT was well over triple digits two years ago. Due to the cyclic nature of the sector, it always comes back. In two years we will revisit triple digits.

    Hold your shares firm. If you sell now, you will ask your yourself why did you sell at $2-ish, and have to buy back shares at $100+ in just two years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    China Demand for Coal Collapsing

    by letxequalx03 Sep 15, 2014 10:48 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Sep 16, 2014 1:38 AM Flag

    That's SHAMEFUL rumor. The English version contains incorrect numbers. I looked up the Chinese original from the official source. There numbers are quite different:

    1. China consumed 449.5 billion KWH of electricity in August, or an INCREASE of 3.6% from same month last year. (This multiplied by 12 month gives you 5.4 trillion KWH per year, higher than the 4.0T KWH of USA)

    2. The Jan - Aug. (8 months) figure was 3282.8 billion KWH, or an increase of 5.1% from same period last year. If you divide it by 8, the monthly average is 410 billion KWH. August was higher than this average.

    3. Split into categories, First industry (mining and agriculture) used 70.2B KWH, a drop of -0.6%. Second industry (manufacturing) used 2418.4B KWH, an increase of 3.2%. Third industry (commercial and service) used 376B KWH, an increase of 11.7%. Residential usage was 418.2B KWH, an increase of 12.1%.

    So you see the commercial and service sector, as well as residential usage still increases at double digits. There is still HUGE room for growth. 418.2B KWH residential usage, averaged over 1.37 billion people, over 243 days. That's averaging merely 1.25 KWH per person per day, or a power consumption of 50 watts. You operate an air conditional unit for a while, it easily uses 10000 watts versus average of 50 watts.

    9月14日,国家能源局发布8月份全社会用电量等数据。
      8月份,全社会用电量4495亿千瓦时,同比增长3.6 %。

      1-8月,全国全社会用电量32828亿千瓦时,同比增长5.1%。分类看,第一产业用电量702亿千瓦时,下降0.6%;第二产业用电量24184亿千瓦时,增长3.2%;第三产业用电量3760亿千瓦时,增长11.7%;城乡居民生活用电量4182亿千瓦时,增长12.1%。

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Sep 15, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Let me repeat. The market took it totally wrong that they thought China banning poor quality coal import was bearish. Let me be clear. This is extremely bullish news. Getting rid of low quality coal production cuts the supply and lifts global coal price. It's bad for the bad players but good for all else. Good for high quality American coal production.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Sep 15, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    A slowdown in growth IS STILL growth, and it still means demand growth, not demand drop.

    A 7% growth is less than 7.5% growth. But it is still positive growth and still a good positive number.

    Global coal demand has NOT stopped growth for a moment in the past few years. It continued upward movement and never dropped. The problem is some of the producing nations recklessly produced two much, when supply growth exceed demand growth the price drops. The two countries responsible for this is Indonesia and China.

    Indonesia, having only 0.6% of the world's coal reserve, see out of control control explosive growth in its coal production, and it is now the world's LARGEST coal exporter. A title that it does not deserve. But they produce low quality high pollutant craps that pollutes China's air.

    China also recklessly produced too much and exhausts its natural resource too fast. China has less than 6% of the world's coal reserve but produces MORE THAN HALF of the global coal production. China also produces very poor quality coal as the high quality ones are exhausted.

    China is now cracking down, banning low quality coal imports, and shutting down low quality and low efficiency domestic coal producers. This swift movement will cut supply and sent global coal market moving up soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is great news to US coal industry. China finally moves to BAN poor quality coal imports to control air pollution. This is very bad news for Indonesian coal players, but good news to every other coal players.

    The island nation Indonesia isn't the best place for coal to form in the world. It's coal reserve is only 0.6% of the world according to BP Energy Review. Years ago Indonesia's coal production was negligible.

    But some how, from some time, for some reason. Indonesia's illegal coal mining grew rampant and they dig their coal like there is no tomorrow. Indonesia is now the world's LARGEST coal exporter. How could they afford to be the world's LARGEST coal exporter, producing 420M tons per year and exporting most of it, when you only have 0.6% of the world's coal reserve?

    Indonesia coal is completely crappy, contains little heat, a lot of dirt and pollutants. Who would buy their coal other than the Chinese. The Chinese, now suffocated in the severe air pollution due to burning of low quality import coal, now realize how stupid it is to import Indonesia poor quality coal.

    Get rid of the supply of poor quality Indonesia coal, every one else will celebrate. The global coal price will return to a more adequate level. The Chinese will breathe easier burning cleaner coal. American coal will sell at better prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Sep 9, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    There is a LOOMING electricity crisis in India as they fail to stock up enough on coal. Its' widely reported, just google it.

    Remember in 2012, India failed to secure enough coal and there was a massive power blackout in July, plunging 700M population in complete darkness for three days, a world record. This time if they don't act soon. They probably will see a power outage affecting more than one billion people, or return the entire country back to stone age.

    You bet they know what they need to do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Sep 9, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Now look at China, which consumes 4 billion tons of coal per year, more than half of the world total, and consumes 5 trillion KWH of electricity per year, versus 4 trillion KWH in USA.

    5. China experiences the worst drought in 60 years. Not a drop of rain in supposed flood season right now. This means collapse of hydro-electricity generation, and higher demand of coal to generate electricity. More over, coal mining destroys underground water resources, at a cost of 40 tons of water per ton of coal produced. China MUST crack down on coal production to save water.

    6. Many private sector coal companies in China can not operate any more. Most coal mining workers are working without pay, as their bosses do not have the cash to pay them. You can not work forever without pay. When workers stop working. The supply is stopped and there will be an immediate supply crisis, sending coal prices much higher.

    7. Indonesia, the island nation with less than 0.6% of the world's coal reserve but ridiculously become the world's No. 1 coal exporter, is also collapsing. Recently it is widely reported in China that a full ship of supposed to be coal from Indonesia was examined at the port, and found to be a full shipload of muds. That island nation is running out of surface coal. They can NOT dig underground coal because the ground is sandy, and easily collapses when you dig tunnels.

    In all counts, now is the best time to buy coal stocks and take an incredible ride in the next year or two.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Look at the long term chart of WLT. Do you see how it swing tot he crazy high and then drop to the rock bottom and then swing to the extreme high again? Right now is an un-precedent rock bottom, within two years it will reach an un-precedent historic high. Be rest assured that is happening faster than you expect:

    1. Coal is always an inherently cyclic commodity. It's been used for thousands of years. The demand is growing rapidly, at a time when the world's petroleum and natural gas resource is quickly running out. You think coal is becoming an obsolete fossil fuel? Think about what we use to generate electricity? Burn oil? Natural gas? Or burn bull sheets? Come one!

    2. US coal stockpile has dropped from record high of 200M+ tons, to a record low of 130M tons. Do we need to drop to zero for a panic? Right now should be a panic level. Power plants simply do not have an adequate inventory to ensure smooth operation. Remember the US consumes nearly 1000M tons per year for electricity.

    3. The Shale Gas bubble is bursting soon. You inject water at high pressure to crack rocks underground, and getting roughly only 3% to 5% of the original shale gas underground out and be produced. You call that an energy revolution? Getting only 3% to 5% out and it can feed us for more than 1000 years? Replace coal? They are telling you a fairy tale. The investment community collective invested OVER TWO TRILLION DOLLARS of fund in th so called shale revolution. They have not seen a dime of return in terms of product revenue. The shale industry producing only 12 trillion cubic feet of gas per year, at $4 per thousand cubic feet that brings in a revenue of $48B per year. But the investment community continues to pump $300B new fund per year to sustain the crazy pace of shale well drilling. This insanity cannot last. Capital MUST seek profits.

    4. A debt crisis collapse of the shale industry will be the best thing happening to the coal industry.

    5. China faces the worst drought ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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