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Chesapeake Energy Corporation Message Board

cadmium_telluride 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 9, 2014 9:58 AM Member since: Dec 28, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 9, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Obama was in office since 2009. US coal sector made a high in early 2011. So politics has NOTHING to do with what's happening in the coal sector, despite of all the rhetoric. If politicians had their ways they would have already shut down all coal power plants of America. But they can't do it.

    Obama's stated energy policy is "All of the above", coal included. His famous "bankrupt all coal plants" quote was completely taken out of context. If you look up where he said that, and what he said before and after that sentence, you will see that it was completely distorted from what he really meant by being taken out of the original context.

    Coal consumption in the power sector was low in 2012 due to an exceptionally warm winter, and catastrophically low natural gas price due to excessive natural gas inventory. Even since, the 2013 coal consumption was higher than 2012. And the rolling 12 month consumption thus far in 2014 is higher than 2013. Coal consumption is back to 95% of the 2011 level, while production is still curtailed to more than 10% lower than 2011 level. The sector is turning around for sure.

    US power river coal needs see $14 or $15 per ton to be profitable. At the same time less than $100 per ton will bankrupt many Chinese, Indonesian and Australian coal companies. It is ridiculous to believe that almost the entire US coal sector (BTU, ANR + ACI) will be wiped out while those coal mines of China, Indonesia and Australia will remain intact. The opposite will happen, giving huge opportunity to low cost and high quality US coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I have nothing to say.

    I will wait until the market allows me to say "I was right".

    By by then, I still have no need to say any thing.

    I stick with my conviction. The coal sector is cyclic. The US is still burning a lot of coal. Coal is still the fossil fuel king. That has not changed regardless of the insanity of the market, knocking down a necessary sector 10% a day relentlessly.

    The entire US coal sector is worth roughly $3 per US citizen. Would Americans prefer to receive $5 each but be deprived of all coal supply and allow their power grid to fall into a permanent blackout as all coal is gone. Or would Americans prefer not to get the $3 free money, but prefer to keep their coal and keep the power grid running? Which more valuable: $3 per person? Or coal for electricity?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Fine. I timed the coal super cycle wrong and thus far the sector is still at the bottom, not started to rally yet. I am, of course disappointed. But I insist that a super cycle is ahead of us, and that coal will be extremely hot in the near future due to all the fundamental factor.

    I repeatedly point out that the coal sector is a cyclic sector which surely WILL rebound.

    You can discredit me all you want. You can take the opposite. You are free to believe that my cyclic sector notion is wrong. Actually you can believe that the coal is fading into history, thus all coal stocks should go to zero. It's perfectly fine for you to believe so, and what you should do is short coal stocks at $1.50 per share, and expect them to go to zero soon. You will make tons of money doing that. Thus I advise you to short coal right here right at $1.50 per share.

    Do what you want. I stick to my foolish conviction to hold my shares firm here. I pound on the table to urge you do precisely the opposite and short coal stocks at $1.50 and short all the way to zero. You do the opposite, you and going to make tons of money and rip tons of profits shorting. You are going to make $1B profit shorting a company worth no more than $0.1B in market valuation. Wait that's mathematically impossible. But who cares about logic any more? You are going to make me $1M poorer and yourself $1M richer, by taking another $1M from me by shorting coal. Once again I do not have $1M to lose to the shorts. The shorts have $1M to lsoe to me. But why bother with logic.

    You stick with your shorts, and I stick with my longs. That's fair game. Just do not run away!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    So the question is do YOU know enough to cover now, and turn around to long. Or you are going to have no clue and stay with your short till the price recover to triple digits? So be honest: Are you still short now?

    The market is beyond ridiculous at this point. You guys look at the absurdity of the market, and see that I am the only one who insist of rational thinking, and stick to my shares. And you think the market is reasonable? You are not laughing at Mr. Market? You are laughing at me who hold shares? You compliment those who give out their shares today? You think these people who give up their shares today did something smart? Yeah go join those folks and laugh at our bag holders.

    All I want is when I hold my shares to triple digit share price, and I laugh my way to the bank, you will still laugh at me at that point. You will never laugh at the fold who give up shares at $1.50 and then two years later spend 150 to buy the same share. You call that smart move.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here is what's happening Now!

    by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    So what do YOU know about the coal sector? What do YOU have to say about why they are pounding down the coal sector 10% down each day relentlessly? In light of the fact that US coal stockpile is already at record low, and market supply demand fundamental says coal price SHOULD go up at this point? It's crazy.

    I have no more to say about how the market reacts. Because there is no more logic or rationale.

    I am beyond broke at thing point. But I still hold quite some shares. Not much in dollar terms, but quite a bit in number of shares. I wish I have resource to add more shares. Below $2.00 it's no longer marginable. The only sure thing is I am not going to give out my shares. I hold on to them. When these shares recover to triple digits, I will laugh all my way to the bank.

    I rode SWC down to $1.70 in 2008-2009 and I held on to the shares firm and I added as much as I could. I was laughing my way to the bank when SWC recovered to $25 in 2011, and my margin strategy gained me nearly 50 fold. So my asset value was multiplied by nearly 50 times from the low point. This time in the coal sector I am going to gain an even more terribly huge multiplier. Maybe by several hundred fold. You take any small number and multiply by 500, it's going to be HUGE. I am beyond broke, but I am definitely not at zero. There is still something left to allow me to multiply by 500 times. Just watch and see.

    The cyclic coal sector SHOULD RECOVER very soon and very rapidly.

    If you want to give out your shares here, you are welcome to do so. If you just give your shares to me for free, I would really appreciate your donation. Please give your shares to me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by muckahoy88 Oct 8, 2014 11:43 AM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    What coal miners need to do is not walk on the street for political rally. What they need to do is walk out of their jobs altogether and find another job. Let no one dig coal any more. Let their plants run out of coal. Let the American power grid collapse. And then people will realize that we still need coal.

    Anything short of that, well, there is no rationality or logic any more in the market place. Are power plants still burning coal, or are they not? Is EIA not showing that US coal stockpile is already at a dangerously low level?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride Oct 8, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    The share price movement can not be justified by any logic or reason. It's just crazy. No market fundamental justify for the coal sector to drop 10% every day, day after day, without end.

    According to EIA data, US coal stockpile reached a low of 125M tons in July 2014 , a record low. That compares to the 203M record high level in May 2012. So the supply demand balance was able to digest away 78M tons of coal stockpile. In another word, demand exceeded supply by 78M tons. The production curtailment of the coal industry works, and is continue to be working, although I wish they curtail more swiftly.

    On the demand side, coal generation in July was 150 million MWH, versus 113M for natural gas. The natural gas share dropped from 139M in July 2012. So coal is still king and natural gas can not replace coal.

    The coal sector remains a cyclic commodity sector, as it always is. All fundamentals, the low stockpile, the high demand, continued coal production curtailment, all point to that coal price SHOULD recover at this point, and coal stock price should return to previous high. It should work that way, unless coal stockpile figure can go to zero and then can go to negative. Then the coal stockpile figure can continue to drop to negative infinity and no one gives a damn if power plants have negative stockpile for electricity generation. It might happen in a fantasy world. But logic does not work that way.

    The bottom line. The market has no logic or reason any more. There are only two things left:
    1. Share price movement, regardless of any rationality
    2. Your transaction, do you buy or sell here.

    Out of these two things, the price is one thing that the shorties take absolute control. They can move price to any low level they want. They can short shares at $1.00 or $0.50. If shorts hand out shares at $0.50 they can and no one is going to prevent them. If they move the price to negative, they CAN. They can give you shares not only for free.

    But YOU don't have to sell!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride Oct 2, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    What a joke. Why do you people sell? One day you can't get rid of WLT fast enough. The next shot up 20%+. Wait till teh day when WLT can double or triple in a day. WLT was well over triple digits two years ago. Due to the cyclic nature of the sector, it always comes back. In two years we will revisit triple digits.

    Hold your shares firm. If you sell now, you will ask your yourself why did you sell at $2-ish, and have to buy back shares at $100+ in just two years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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