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Chesapeake Energy Corporation Message Board

cadmium_telluride 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2014 1:27 PM Member since: Dec 28, 2007
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  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 15, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Methane is gas. Coal is solid.

    Coal does not emit any green house gas at ANY part of its production and usage cycle, except when it is burned, and only emit CO2 from the part that is burned. Any un-burned coal or its ash remain does not emit CO2 at all. Likewise no CO2 is emitted while coal is digged out.

    Methane is totally different, the gas itself is is 25 times more potent a green house gas than CO2, per volume. So emitting one cubic foot of methane is as bad as emitting 25 cubic feet of CO2.

    More over at each and every stage of natural gas's production, transportation and consumption, a part of the methane gas escapes into the atmosphere.

    This is especially true at the burning stage. Methane is burned in open air just like any other fuel. Typically not all methane is burned, not even close to 100%. Typically 90% of methane is burned and form CO2, a less potent green house gas than methane. The remaining 10% of methane is not burned and is released directly into atmosphere. That's 10% of methane, at 25 times worse greenhouse effect than CO2. So combined, one cubic foot of methane results in 90% + 25*10% = 340% = 3.4 cubic feet worth of CO2 in green house emission.

    The US burns 28 trillion cubic feet of methane per year. That is equivalent to releasing 3.4 x 28 trillion = 95.2 trillion cubic feet of CO2 into atmosphere in terms of green house gas effect. Each cubic feet of CO2 is 52 grams. So that's 5 trillion kilograms of CO2 into atmosphere, or FIVE BILLION TONS of CO2, while US coal releases only 3.3 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

    Stop the fracking!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I Have a Problem with Powerburn

    by brawn412 Apr 17, 2014 4:02 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 17, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    This statement of EIA was incorrect: "Power companies consumed 8.1 trillion cf last year as nat gas continues to eat into coal's market share in power generation—helping to explain why natural gas prices spiked over the winter."

    What is nat gas continued to eat into coal market share last year? By EIA's own data, nat gas electricity generation in 2012 was 1,225,894 GWH in 2012, and dropped to 1,113,665 GWH in 2013. So nag gas share dropped, NOT ncreased, from 2012 to 2013. Mean while coal's shares recovered from 2012 level to 2013 level, going from 1,514,043 to 1,585,998 GWH.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cadmium

    by bill_billingsly Apr 22, 2014 2:48 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 22, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    I haven't given up on coal at all. In a few days my big tax refund check comes in, I am adding massively on coal positions. I have been pounding on the table for some long. The only way to convince people that we are seeing a coal super bull cycle, is for it actually to happen and for coal shares to go to triple digits.

    It will happen and the dummies will be paying triple digit prices to buy coal stocks. By then I will be selling and go find other investment opportunities. Right now dummies are selling at $4-ish and I am trying to buy as much as I can.

    Latest US coal stockpile figure is at 119M tons, this compared to 187M in Feb 2013 and 175M in Feb 2013. You think the low stockpile will not going to create a supply panic soon? Maybe the USA will craw back into a cavern and light up a candle. I don't think so.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cadmium

    by bill_billingsly Apr 22, 2014 2:48 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 22, 2014 10:47 PM Flag

    So what? My original timing was off by two years. But then the time itself has moved two years as well. Mean while the US coal stockpile, as well as natural gas storage, has reached historic lows. The start of super cycle is now and here. You are going to bet that it is going to be off for another two year? You are entitled to make that bet. My bet is it's finally here after being delayed for too long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cadmium

    by bill_billingsly Apr 22, 2014 2:48 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 23, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Do NOT play options. Options are zero sum gambles between two players. Either you take money out of option writer, or he takes money out of your pocket. In term the only sensible investment is hold equities for long term gain, not play options.

    Just like betting on timing, your bet could be off by two years, but then as long as the ultimate movement comes, you are OK keep holding your positions. But if you bet option and it does not move by the expiration time, you lose it all and there is no coming back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 23, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    It was a brilliant move because the percentage gain in just two days, not because of the dollar amount. If you put in a billion dollar and gained 0.1% in two days for one million dollars gain. That's quite a bit of money but you wouldn't be impressed by a 0.1% move.

    My stake before JRCC bankruptcy was tiny, less than 1% of my whole portfolio, and lucky for me I sold almost all of them before the bankruptcy. Only had 200 shares lost in JRCC bankruptcy. As I said a few month before the JRCC bankruptcy I thought the odd of JRCC not surviving was high, so I was not willing to put any big stake in JRCC and I preferred ACI and ANR instead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Check out a column by Clyde Russell:

    Indonesia to make it even harder for foreign miners

    It is about time Indonesia do the right thing for its people and for its own interest.
    There is a popular belief in that country that foreign mining companies are ripping off the nation's underground treasuries and the people get nothing. There is a huge outcry for the government to do something about it.

    How else do you explain, that in this island nation which owns only 0.6% of the world's coal reserves, some how coal mining exploded in the last few years, and some how it is the world's LARGEST coal exporter. They can't afford to be the world's coal exporter, let alone being the No. 1. It was all because of bad policy that gave foreign mining companies all the profits and gave the people nothing. The policy was unfair to begin with.

    What happens when Indonesia shut off foreign mining companies and tell them to shovel it? Coal production in the country will collapse, and international coal price will skyrocket.

    And that's good for US coal companies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 23, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    LetXEquaLoserTimesThree:

    You never learn, do you? Why you named yourself LetXEquaLoserTimesThree?

    Since 2008 you conveniently forget how I pounded on the table to urge people to buy palladium as the best precious metal, at $160 per ounce, and told people it will perform far better than silver, gold and platinum?

    You conveniently forget that I every one was laughing at me but I sticked to it and massively added to my SWC position at $1.70 per share while you call for selling. How I margined up and riding SWC up over the years.

    You conveniently forget how I precisely jumped on board the dry bulk sippping sector at the right moment, when BDI hit 666, and I massively margined those stocks from below $4 to $24 in just a few months. Yes I lost heavily before that. But in just a few months I turned $50K to one third of a million dollars.

    You conveniently forget that in the fall of 2009, I correctly determined that UNG was the wrong investment vehicle to touch, and never touched it again. How that right decision saved me from un-necessary losses.

    I told those folk to buy palladium player SWC better than silver players. They all laughed at me. At the time SWC sold for half the price of CDE. Now SWC is twice the price of CDE.

    I abandoned the shipping sector after the summer of 2009 and thought it was not good to go back in for a few years. I was absolutely right.

    I do make mistakes. But I was right more than I was wrong. My mistakes cost me a lot. But my correct calls, coupled with massive margin strategy, gained me way much more than my mistakes cost me. One big mistake in PCX costed me $20K. One huge success in margining SWC up gained me more than 3/4 of a million. Which is bigger?

    My biggest, and most costly mistake thus far, costing me $10M, was that I bought JRCC in Aug. 2007 at the right time for $4 but sold it way too early at $7.75 and could never buy it back until it hit $62.86 ten month later.

    Keep laugh.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 23, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    My biggest, and most costly mistake thus far, costing me $10M, was that I bought JRCC in Aug. 2007 at the right time for $4 but sold it way too early at $7.75 and could never buy it back until it hit $62.86 ten month later. Had I aggressively margined it up on JRCC I would have made $10M on that trade. Lost that $10M for selling way too early.

    You never laughed at me at that most costly mistake, did you?

    I am happy that I have another opportunity to play coal, and this time I can aggressively margin it up. And this time, things are lined up way much better than the ten month JRCC run from $3.46 to $62.86. There will be a much bigger gain in ACI and ANR. I am fully ready to margin it aggressively up, turning a ten fold gain into a 500 fold gain.

    Please keep laughing. I will laugh at last. My tax refund check will coming in handy very soon. Of course, in the future you will conveniently forget how I margined up riding ACI and ANR from $4-ish to $100 per share, and you will forget you did nothing but just sit laughing while you could have bought those same coal shares at $4-ish. Just like you did nothing loading up $1.70 shares of SWC which you could have done.

    I still have about 20% in SWC today as I think palladium has a lot more to go up. My biggest stakes are in coal today, though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like Arch will go BK within a few quarters

    by herbert99 Apr 22, 2014 4:36 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 23, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Why people keep talking about met coal when ACI is first and foremost a thermal coal player. In projected production ACI expects to produce 128M tons of thermal coal, and only 6.8M tons of met coal. So the met coal part is marginal, the bulk of business is in thermal coal.

    With US coal stockpile at ten year low, and US natural gas storage also at a record low, a huge rally due to shortage is all but inevitable very soon.

    Stick with ACI.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 24, 2014 1:48 AM Flag

    I was once thinking out loud whether I should short apple. But never put that into action and I actually even posted to support that APPL has value as long as its product is in desire.

    How could it count as my mistake if I have not even once shorted a single share of AAPL thus far?

    I believe AAPL is over valued. A company that makes a product that others can make, more or less with similar features, should not make the kind of ridiculous profit AAPL is making now, and competition will catch up. And AAPL will be worth a lot less, instead of half a trillion dollars, when it is forced to settle down for thin profit margins.

    There will be a day to short AAPL. I have NOT made that call. If I have, and shorted AAPL and end up lose money, then you can call that a mistake.

    Right now, coal is the best investment. Stick to coal. If it turns out that we really do not need coal any more, and all Americans craw back into caverns and light candles. Then I will admit I was mistaken on coal. Anything short of that, I am seeing an un-precedent coal panic and great coal rally very soon.

    For the record, now US coal stockpile is at ten year low, as well as natural gas storage is at ten year low as well. They did not move down as fast as I expected in 2013, but now they are really moving in the direction I expect. I will finally be proven correct after all, that the coal sector is cyclic.

    Do NOT give out the biggest investment opportunity you will see in your lifetime. Peak Coal in China only happens once in the whole history of civilization, and we saw it happened in 2012. China's coal industry is collapsing but China desperately needs to import coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 24, 2014 2:02 AM Flag

    Coal to liquid makes perfect economical sense when power river coal is selling at $13 per ton, and global oil price is at $110 per barrel, and one ton of coal contains the same energy as four barrels of oil. We are talking about 34 times price disparity, with oil being 34 times more expensive than coal.

    Blame it on bureaucracy and regulations of the authority that this project is not moving any where. It is not for lack of economic advantage, it is because of regulations. We need a major global oil crisis to break the bureaucracy. But isn't $110 per barrel oil already a global crisis? China is thirsty for more oil but the world simply does not have the supply. We made do in the last few years with America cutting 3M barrels per day demand while China takes up that 3M barrels per day in demand growth. This can not keep going as America can not keep cutting its own demand while China demand keeps increasing rapidly.

    From 2006 to this year, is eight years. Enough time to fight two World War II. Hitler did the coal to oil thing 70 years ago and used that to power his war machine. How did Hitler get it done so quickly without regulation approval back then? Just incredible!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The rally in ANR allowed me extra buying power to buy more ACI today. 1500 shares added at $4.45 just today. Like I said I am aggressively buying on margin on each dip. This is the start of a super coal cycle.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    US Coal Is Entering a Super Bull Cycle

    by cadmium_telluride Feb 3, 2014 12:26 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 25, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    People who are not seeing that this is the start of a super bull cycle, are blind and do not see the plain facts:

    US coal stockpile is at 11 year low, and natural gas storage is also at 11 year low. The supply demand fundamentals that a record low inventory means a panic buying is imminent, is still correct.

    80% to 90% of China's private coal mines are already shut down, leaving only the government owned coal mines still operating. Without the private sector, China's coal supply will collapse and thus China must buy a lot more import coals.

    The US shale gas bubble is finally bursting. The industry simply run out of endless supply of fresh capital money to keep drilling to produce shale gas at a deep loss. Due to rapid decline of shale wells, you need nearly $10 per mmBtu gas price to be profitable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    US Coal Is Entering a Super Bull Cycle

    by cadmium_telluride Feb 3, 2014 12:26 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Yes I started this thred when ACI was at $4.01. Now ACI is above $4.50. Haven't we moved forward?

    The super coal cycle has started. Most people won't even know it until after the fact.

    Don't miss the opportunity. Don't sell too low.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Forget About UNG - Coal Stocks are Where You Want to Go!

    Don't you guys understand what happens to UNG when you look at long term chart? Short term it might seem tracking natural gas movement, long term it continues to spiral down to zero. That's because UNG is a zero sum game played between future contract players, and has nothing to do with a simgle cubic foot of real gas.

    Further, natural gas as an energy commodity, it can neither go to very high level and stay there for long. High price discourages consumption as people to switch to the other fuel. When you buy APPLE stock 12 yeas ago it seems it can keep going higher. No such expectation in any widely used commodity.

    Instead, the best bet you can make is that energy commodity players are ALWAYS moving in cycles. They go from very high to very low, and then go back to very high levels again, in repeated cyclic movements. Right now, coal prices are at ridiculous low level, equivalent to oil priced at $5 per barrel when real oil is priced at $110 per barrel. So if you want to make a huge profit, now is the time to get into coal players like ACI, ANR, BTU.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • cadmium_telluride by cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I am buying a lot more shares of ANR tomorrow.

    I would have bought today. But the cash from my tax refund is only in place tomorrow, not today.

    Don't you guys realize this is the start of an un-precedent coal super cycle. Look at how low US coal stockpile is, as well as how long natural gas storage is! We have not seem such lows in 11 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    The fact that UNG continued to spiral down over the past few years, is an undeniable fact.

  • Reply to

    I am Buying Massively Tomorrow!

    by cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 3:11 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 11:38 PM Flag

    My cash is now in. I am ready to put in massive buy orders tomorrow. Wish me good luck to load up cheaper than today's price, tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I am Buying Massively Tomorrow!

    by cadmium_telluride Apr 30, 2014 3:11 PM
    cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride May 1, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    LOL. I can not even place orders fast enough to get them filled.

    The bulk of my purchase of ANR today was at $4.20 in pre-hour trading. Once the market opens, I can not adjust my order price fast enough to get my buy orders filled.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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