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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

caffeine444444 121 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 5:37 PM Member since: Jan 31, 2005
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  • Reply to

    SPIL to take over promos 12 inch lab ...

    by detmarlowe Aug 19, 2014 4:52 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 19, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Could be one of the reason SPIL wanted to sell 1 million shares of IMOS to raise capital for the purchase.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EV/EBITDA & FCF Yield Calculation

    by jamcracker25 Aug 17, 2014 11:40 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 17, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Jam, that is not my calculation. That is Cowen's valuation. If you read the report there are a lot of moving parts especially because of the non controlling interest. Much still has to be finalized by how and what they do to collapse Thailin into 8150. Thailin has about $100 million of the total cash portion which is a huge % of the total. IMOS also has about $100 million that is also a huge %. My quick calculation would be Market Cap $720 million less net cash $254 ( also adding additional $40 million because IMOS share of the $100 million is not 60% but is 100%. Enterprise Value should be $426 million. For EBITDA Cowen has full year at $220 million for the total ,so I am going to use 60% because that is our portion. $132million EBITDA divided into $426 million EV = 3.09X. As far a FCF yield that becomes a moving target. Up until a month ago capx was going to be around $80 million for the full year and now has been raised to about $120 million on the last CC. Not sure when VI quoted 12% but as of the 1st quarter SK said FCF for the year would be around $80 million. That would be about $2.75 in FCF per share. Using a $24 stock price the FCF yield should have been around 11.5 %. Hope that helps and let me know how that does not jive with your estimates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CREDIT SUISSE AG added a lot more!!

    by sbacchus2003 Aug 13, 2014 12:30 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 17, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Has, congratulations on your new move. Hope everything works out for you in the new community. I was concerned until I saw your last post that you were out of MU but happy to see that you are still in. As you know I have loaded up on Himx as we debated many months ago in the $6.50 level prior to the dividend of course. As we discussed I thought we would move into the $7-8 but never thought the $5's. Himx now is a great risk reward stock with growth starting to return again after some of their setbacks from Samsung and Google.
    Not that I am looking to tout IMOS but again we had much debate about that stock also. As it is turning out not only is it a deep value stock still at ( $24 up from about $18 when we had many discussions) but is a huge growth company in the OSAT segment. They will grow revenues by 10% this year and next year and GM's have moved up from 19% to currently 23.6% reported last Tuesday. They also forecasted GM's to continue to increase moving forward. Cowen just came out on Wednesday pounding the table and moved its price target up to $32 from $29. Stating they are undervalued by more then 40% from most of its peers.
    Ps I also was a 2 handicap but have not played much in the last 3 years because of a bad back. I had a spinal fusion of my L5/S1 3 weeks ago. When I stopped playing 3 years ago my handicap had moved up to 7. In about 3 months I too could start to work on my game again, not sure I could ever make it down to a 2 again but would be very happy around 5.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 16, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    South Florida in January or February is perfect. Golf, gambling ,great food and boating. What could be better. On a side note about the taxes. There is a chance that management is working on a cost basis reduction instead of capital gains. There are many issues trying to get resolved IMO before a conversion proposal gets put out for a vote. I think there is no question that they would like to collapse the share count in 8150 by buying a big block from us. Some of the issues I think management is working on is the ESOP exchange, tax issues for cash portion, the Thailin collapse into 8150, the ADR plan being put into place. The other major issue is having independent council for both entities agreeing on the proposal plan that is equally fair to both. I think management has a good idea what will probably fly with a positive vote by IMOS shareholders but will not do anything until all issues have been agreed on by the independent council. JMHO With the SPIL transaction I am not sure if it moves out the proposal time frame. I still believe we are looking for a first quarter 2015 transaction. Based on the new Cowen report and other Asian reports I would be more focused on business growth, GM's and general biz conditions. In the Cowen report Tim is very focused on the undervaluation of IMOS to its closest peer Chipbond and the lowest in the segment. He does not even talk about 8150 and until we get a proposal i think the 8150 price is immaterial also.we should continue to be focused on IMOS and the rest will fall into place. IMOS is trading at 3x EV/EBITDA and Chipbond is trading at a 100% premium. The 8150 trading price at this point is very illiquid. Management sold most of the 200 million shares to a limited amount of investment houses and IMO the lack of volume just shows there is no selling going on. When all party's have a better idea of the conversion volume will pick up in a huge way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150 share buyback

    by tujac Aug 15, 2014 2:19 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 15, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    Tujac ,I don't think it has been said officially but it is well know by all when they received a $350 million line of credit that they would like to do a share reduction in 8150.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 15, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    Bam, I am also fine with that. I think what is taking that long is the potential for the massive 8150 share buy back that should be good for all shareholders. Remember even if we sell 40% of our shares for cash the other 60% will get the same lift as all 8150 shareholders of course . A buy back in the open market for say 200 million shares would take for ever and the price appreciation would also take time. The pop would be huge if we do sell them back 40% of our shares in a block so we all would participate immediately . The only hold back at this point in my view is how to compensate our cash portion. My guess is they are working with outside council at both levels to agree on what would be a fair price for the cash shares. I know that they will have to pay some type of premium because there is no other way to get the IMOS shareholders to agree. By looking at all the new institutional ownership holdings including the Soros fund there is no chance in hell for anything less then par. 8150 should go up about 25-30% when all is agreed on. Even though I would except the straight conversion I believe our total package of cash and ADR's with the large pop in the 8150 stock price will get us more value. If you want to reinvest your cash portion then that will be your choice but the value would never have been increased like it will be without the huge block sale from IMOS shareholders. JMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 15, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Liz, JMO but if 8150 announces a 25% share reduction there is no way they could hold the price down. That is probably the best way to get our cash postion after the word is out at a fair price even with a possble premium.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 15, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    Dave, what I am saying the 8150 price has no impact on the conversion rate. With the low volume in 8150 I don't look at the price showing any real true value. When there is a proposal which I ecpect in the next 6 weeks then 8150 should get a pop just like IMOS will if there really is a massive share buyback by the IMOS shareholders. The 4-5 months is when I think the tranaction will take place. When it is announced about a share repurchase of 8150, stock price should move up. Maybe at that time they do a 20 day average 8150 share price to value the cash portion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 15, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    I beleive DSL has sold down most of there fund and are moving into a different direction is my guess. Take a look at the rest of the funds holdings as they are almost all liquidated. It is surely not IMOS related. George Soros fund bought 1.1 million shares last quarter and many other holders added to their positions. Baupost did not sell a share and is still holding about 3,3 million shares. All looks good and at this point ,8150 price is not as meaningful as the deal still seems to be 4-5 months away.and does not matter what the price is as far as the conversion rate The 2 new reports that came out this week has IMOS fair value around $33 and this is not based on any 8150 pricing or premium. Craig Halum is right in there too with $31 target price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 12, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Liz, nice find. That would equal about 32 cents for IMOS if the tax rates were the same. Sounds like some onetime charges in those earnings. GM awesome

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Highest Monthly Revenue

    by jamcracker25 Aug 8, 2014 7:24 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 8, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Awesome numbers. Would not be surprised to have a $200 million 3rd quarter. Revenue should increase m/m. Most analysts have about $187 million 3rd quarter forecast. GM should be over 24% . Conversion proposal should be coming at a great time with biz firing on all cylinders. All we need is a stable world market and economy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Down the Stretch, Gas explosion not impacting C-Mos

    by royco Aug 3, 2014 11:04 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 4, 2014 8:38 AM Flag

    Don't forget Himmy on Thursday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MediaTek reports record high net profit in Q2

    by sbacchus2003 Jul 31, 2014 9:57 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Aug 1, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Samsung doubling up on ordering parts from Himx in this quarter for LCD driver. Himx should have a very strong rebound in the 3rd quarter vs last quarter. The bottom should be in and growth will expand through the rest of 2014. We get any news on an Lcos customer getting readily to mass produce sometime in the next couple of months and we should be off to the races. The article is in Digitimes today stating that Himx will benefit from strong Samsung growth this quarter( 50% more then last quarter.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 29, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    Marnis, maybe I am so {irate that he is such an {iriot}.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 28, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    JJJ, you have a sell on the stock so I assume you are cleaning house with your short. You should be dancing in the streets but for some odd reason your are #$%$ when the price goes down. As my good friend Marnis say you are an (irate)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    that's it?

    by ecoli00001 Jul 2, 2014 2:55 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 25, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    JJJ, you are one idiot. I thought Sardi took the cake.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 22, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    JJJ , you should be reported to the SEC for making false statements. There is no $26.40 offer by the company and your lies are just a reflection of your horrendous personality. There are over 5000 other stocks out there that you should be looking at since you sold out of IMOS. I guess you just are just so nervous about making a bad sale that you can't stay away from this board.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 22, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Thanks Sean. We will put it together for sure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 21, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Marnis, not the 7 passenger but maybe the. 727

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Jul 21, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Sean, would have loved to been able to do it but I will be in rehab for 6weeks after a 2week rest period right after the procedure. Probably looking more like 3 months before I could fly again. That should not stop the whole process from moving ahead. IMO by September 15th IMOS shareholders will have a proposal on hand that will require a shareholder vote and hopefully the results could be released by October 1st. At that time IMHO we should move within 5% of total valuation package.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

IMOS
24.33-0.30(-1.22%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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