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Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) Message Board

caffeine444444 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 4:09 PM Member since: Jan 31, 2005
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  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 19, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Looks like someone put a bid of 20,000 shares at $22.50 so not to close below the strike price. That guy won the battle but we lost the war.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 19, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    looks like a real battle.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 19, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Looks like they are trying to pin the priice to the option $22.50's(4000 contracts outstanding) unreal

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by jamcracker25 Dec 18, 2014 7:05 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 18, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Not easy if possible at all to short 8150

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by jamcracker25 Dec 18, 2014 7:05 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 18, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Great article by Dane. I loved the new approach of an Oligopoly industry to bring in new investors. Yellow,on valuation my break down being conservative with industry stock valuations is.
    8150 current fair value to Chipbond( a better balance sheet and much better business segments, not only LCD Driver but Memory too) is around $NT55. If we do a share buyback from 8150 of IMOS shares in 8150 around 200 million shares then all metrices improve by about 25% because of less shares outstanding. That brings fair value to around $ NT 70.With 500 million 8150 shares owned by IMOS the conversion should be about 17.85 shares. of 8150. If conversion is 40% cash and 60% 8150 ADR's then the cash portion even without premium is about NT42,50 or 7.14 shares X US$1.37 per share. The ADR value would be 10.71 shares at $NT 70 or $2.25 per share. Cash in Bermuda after buyback and pension obligation would still be about $41 million or $1.46 per share. The total in US dollars is 40% cash ($9.78 ) ADR's ($24.09) and Bermuda cash ($1.46). Total package $35.33. Using a P/E approach 2015 earnings forecast of $NT 4.00 moves up 25% because of share reduction to $NT5 X a 14 times multiple or $NT 70. The metrics support $35-40 over the next 12 months I know some will say we are leaving a lot of money on the table by selling 40% for cash with no premium but if there was no share reduction then the metrics would not move up 25% either. IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150 Nov. revenue 0.3% MoM and 20% YoY

    by lizheng19672002 Dec 9, 2014 8:36 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 16, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    Sean, If I was a betting man I would say it started today. but have no definitive answer,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    November Revenue Number

    by jamcracker25 Dec 9, 2014 11:45 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 9, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    Jay, yes that is good for earnings but does bring down the revenue because of the stronger dollar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy Back

    by bamajoe20715 Dec 5, 2014 10:09 AM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 5, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Bam, I would have to disagree IMO. The whole conversion will be done in 1 transaction.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 4, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    Dada, not to worry there is no going private option in the cards unless someone wants to buy the whole company and take it private.. That would cost over $35 per share if even possible

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 2, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    No chance in hell would that offer fly. No one would vote for a $21.88 sale per share. The theory is correct and the cash portion sounds about right but the $NT10 billion is way off. More like $NT15 billion. That deal would equate to$11.21 in cash and $16.26 or $27.47 would sound better. After the transaction would close the stock portion should be worth about 25-30% more or a complete package of $31.50 at todays prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Dec 2, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Chipmos Tech May Go Private Next Yr: DealReporter (Earlier)





    By Joshua Fineman

    Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Chipmos Tech planning to go private

    next yr through a possible $650m cash/stock offer, DealReporter

    said earlier, citing a co. source.

    * IMOS may propose “hybrid” offer of $333m in cash and new

    shrs worth TWD$10b for IMOS’s 29.7m shrs

    * IMOS offer structure likely similar to recently proposed

    Thailin Semiconductor deal

    * NOTE: Nov. 12, ChipMos Board Oks Proposed Plan for

    Merger of Units
    My take is they have this confused with the IMOS 8150 conversion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 27, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Sean, as I stated 21 months ago I never bought options. The leverage that I was able get by buying long out of the money MU calls was the best way to play it. The stock price was around $7 and the July $10s were around $.30. The big catalyst was closing the Elpida deal in late June. As it turned out the thesis was correct and everything fell into place including the Hynix fire after I converted all my options into stock. Still holding long and strong but will start to build another huge option leap position and sell out my stock as it has increased too large a position to my net worth. I convinced Marnis to do the same back then and he also is in the same position as me. Not a bad problem to have but the the overweighted amount gets scary. I will look to buy the the Jan 2016 $40s and sell my stock through selling covered calls and let them take my shares. Would not be surprised if MU brakes through $50 next year as the oligopoly has really taken hold. Just the way I see it.
    Imos will have its day soon too and the race will be back on but I think end of 2015 imos $35-38 and MU $48-$55. I would be very happy with these 2 results and I believe all others will too. Happy thanksgiving to all

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another day in paradise..

    by jamcracker25 Nov 21, 2014 12:50 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 22, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Bam, what I think we do know that worse case scenario is we get our cash in Bermuda and our fair share of 8150 in ADR's . If that is the worst case then at a 20 current discount to 8150 a floor is in place. If the worst case senerio was going to be the final deal then so be it. My take is we will get a cash premium and ADR's for a reduction of 8150 shares through a massive buy back. In that case we should move up to about $30 in FV and when 8150 starts to react to fundementals based on peer valuations we should be worth $33-35 FV. With only the IMOS conversion now left as the only piece of the conversion no announced as of yet then April- June looks like the time frame for the imos conversion. Which it was now but not to long to wait to reach FV. Jmho

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another day in paradise..

    by jamcracker25 Nov 21, 2014 12:50 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 21, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    Jam/Bam, no clue on the rules on the 30 day cooling off window but they have done that on every buy back so far. My take is they haven't announce the imos conversion much earlier as they would have need 2014audited statements forThailin,8150 and IMOS which won't be complete and sent to regulators till mid March 2015 anyway. JMHO but management has confirmed the need for the audited statements for regulatory approval.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Another day in paradise..

    by jamcracker25 Nov 21, 2014 12:50 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 21, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Sean, not sure why you expected it to start immediately as it has always had a 30 day cooling off period. The good news is I think the company will continue to do buy backs till the conversion announcement of imos and 8150. Not that I am happy about it but the Thailin purchase if we take a longer then 6 month horizon was a smart move to bring 1st. If they would have collapsed the imos deal first with a 25-30% share reduction 8150 share price would have increased in value by about the same percentage and 8150 would have had to pay much more for Thailin. 8150 is essentially buying Thailin with its own cash and issuing about 35 million new shares of 8150. Net net they increase the cash in 8150 as thailin has about 80 million in cash and will pay out only $45 million increasing usable cash at the 8150 level of $35 million. I have spoken with management and they are just as anxious to get the final collapse done as we are. They need to take 1 step at a time and now the thailin deal needs to get final regulatory approval and then our mother load should arrive right after. I have been patient for 6 years from 80cents to $20 so I will have another 6 months to wait. I do expect that when this seller or sellers are done( you sell for many reasons but buy for only one) that we will close the gap discount at least with 8150. I do expect the taiwan investors will move up the share price as they are now seeing a huge discount to Chipbond and the rest of if it's peers. Just a matter of time IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Congrats

    by sean777007 Nov 19, 2014 8:28 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 20, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    Gen, right on

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Congrats

    by sean777007 Nov 19, 2014 8:28 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 20, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    Not really, most buy backs when announced take a year to get done.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Congrats

    by sean777007 Nov 19, 2014 8:28 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 20, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    Bob, I don't think the cash from profits moves to Bermuda. Only when they dividend it,usually in June each year does it move from 8150 to IMOS. I think when SK gave us the cash in September he figured on the Dividend paid already. JMO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Congrats

    by sean777007 Nov 19, 2014 8:28 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 20, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Tujac, when we have $61 million in Bermuda left we also will go from about 28.7 million down to 28 million shares outstanding making the buy back accretive to earnings and FV right away.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Congrats

    by sean777007 Nov 19, 2014 8:28 PM
    caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Nov 20, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    Jam, just to clarify the cash at Bermuda after buy back will be $61 million not $51. It was an error by SK. Also last nights close is the highest since July 31st and the volume highest since May 27th by far. We traded over 11 million shares in the last 2 days with the stock price up about 5%. Last nights volume was about $10 million US which equals about 476,000 IMOS shares traded here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

HIMX
8.12+0.37(+4.77%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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