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calbucks09 1926 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 7, 2015 2:36 PM Member since: Jan 26, 2011
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  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Nov 7, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    respectfully I think you're trying to avoid the reality of the chimp results. It successfully applied the theory that if you KD SaG you might see the immune system able to clear the disease. with 9 chimps or 5 in a subgroup whichever you prefer... this did NOT happen.

    they tested theory and are 0-5 or 0-9

    so now they will give up that theory and hope that it somehow will enhance the effects of IFN elevating % of FC. that is in and of itself a retreat from the original hypothesis.

    lets face it, DPC works great. bit the theory that KD of SaG is going to lead to FC has been tested and failed in nhp. so why would it work in humans?

    I think you have to own the stock here as its cheap and DPC has lots of applications. but those hoping for the HBV miracle cure are clinging to fantasy

  • Reply to

    oh no

    by brian_hammer2 Oct 30, 2015 2:09 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Oct 30, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    was there a short covering rally? I missed it

  • Reply to

    Where are the Biotechs going?

    by end2war Oct 30, 2015 12:46 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Oct 30, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    agree in principal. biotech is the new R&D division for big pharma, which is smart on the part of big pharma really. let someone else take the risk.

    but what I'm referencing is stocks like ABUS, ARWR, BDSI, ZIOP,
    you know the list.

    for the last two years, any company with anything in phase 2 could get a $1-2 billion valuation based on an idea. Those have all done round trips back to where they started 2 years ago as the market starts to separate the real prospects from those that are still just 'ideas'.

    ARWR has some interesting IP and the dpc delivery method has shown it works. but they will now have to actually demonstrate cure rates in trials to get back to $1bill valuations.

    my point is the market has changed from a 'benefit of the doubt' phase due to excitement over Sovaldi / Harvoni etc to a 'show me the proof' phase imo.

    all my opinion. maybe the fed will do QE4,5,6 and fund managers will return to giving phase 1 R&D companies with experimental drugs billion dollar valuations. but I doubt it.

    just another cycle imo.

  • Reply to

    Where are the Biotechs going?

    by end2war Oct 30, 2015 12:46 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Oct 30, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    You have to consider whther the prior highs in biotech were even justified at all. I would argue they were not based on the actual prospects of the underlying companies.

    In all likelihood we've seen the highs for many many speculative biotech co's as they will no longer just be given $billion valuations based on a phase 2 trial starting. they will now have to show the drug works to get that valuation.

    Its clear that money is rotating out of lower quality bio into higher quality bio that has strong current visible earnings streams. usually once this happens in a market cycle it means the cycle is done.

    at the end of the day the stock market is pricing / estimating the likelihood of future cashflow streams. most bio have no future cashflow stream at all.

    ARWR failed to show a cure / FC/ seroconversion etc in chimp studies. So why should analysts risk moving clients into a stock for a human trial that didn't work in chimps? not worth the risk.

    I suspect ARWR needs to move on beyond HBV and investors should assume that HBV isn't going to pan out, and value the company based on the other potential drugs and IP applications.

  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Oct 28, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    the issue is the drug hasn't cured anything at this point. if it does, then the shorts will bail. simple.

    market for research biotech has finally deflated and now investors want to see actual results rather than bid up for 'interesting research'

  • Reply to

    Biotechs getting slammed again

    by hparch Oct 7, 2015 3:05 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Oct 7, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    agreed. partnership would help resolve several issues.

  • Reply to

    Biotechs getting slammed again

    by hparch Oct 7, 2015 3:05 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Oct 7, 2015 5:47 PM Flag

    Arrowhead seemed to trade on its own today. But in general what still seems to be happening is a rotation out of overweight biotech positions and some modest short covering. In addition the buyers of biotech here last few sessions seem to be either nervous shorts or are tentative funds nibbling at the best capitalized strongest pipelines and avoiding the spec stuff.

    you can see GILD as the favoriate based on cashflow and profits while ALNY is still getting thrashed along with most research stage stuff.

  • saw this posted on twitter. puts valuation in perspective on research stage biotech

    Valuations (Enterprise value, meaning netting out cash and debt)
    Phase II - 60 companies, mean MC $412 mill, Median MC $231 mill

    Phase III - 41 companies, mean MC $595 mill, Median MC $217 mill

    Phase III complete with NDA - 17 companies, mean MC $2.1 bill, median MC $1.2 bill

    means at current levels ARWR is around the median for phase II and below average for Phase II but also means that people thinking it should be a billion $ valuation is pretty unrealistic until they are in phase III with efficacy proof in humans

  • calbucks09 by calbucks09 Oct 7, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    is one sc patient really worth $1billion? not sure. promising technology, but long way and a lot of capital spending from a n approvable product.

  • Reply to

    BOD changes

    by tigercapital51387 Sep 29, 2015 3:27 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 29, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Gilead exec would be wise

  • Reply to

    Shocked by you guys

    by hondonull Sep 29, 2015 2:33 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 29, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    agreed. Sold 60% of my position in the 7's out of frustration. have 25% and that is hedged with puts on ARWR, ALNY, BLUE

    once this IBB meltdown settles, plan to reinvest for big 2016 HBV year in ARWR and ABUS... I do feel ARWR is in a better spot after the safety data and oncology targets announced. But its a micro cap with experimental drugs far from pipeline and wall street hates the mgmt. team. It will be guilty till proven innocent. once they show the first immune response of a human trial, it will go parabolic. true of any research stage bio

  • calbucks09 by calbucks09 Sep 29, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    fwiw, take this for what its worth, just one person's anecdote. in speaking to a close friend at a HF he indicated all their PM's and traders are just focused on not giving up all their 2015 unrealized gains. They have bonuses locked up, great performance figures (relative), and want to just shut it down and go to all cash. They are loath to give back a strong year and many other HF and funds have huge unrealized gains in biotech as the market leader. so that is getting taken to woodshed first.

    Add to that a lot of non bio investors drove valuations up due to trend / momo for the IBB. Its not a reflection of their opinion on the market or the fundamentals of the companies

    That's cold comfort, but it explains the action short term. They may not jump back in till end of year.

    at some point some amazing bargains will emerge for the next run. but more pain to come.

  • DPC was validated to be safe and extremely effective at KD once the recipe is dialed in

    ARWR is moving on to oncology targets. they can get fast track very quickly on anything that improves tumors or survival by even a month. way way easier to get a product to market.

    this alone is why the stock will perform much better.

    If I were CA I'd be on a roadshow talking about all the oncology targets and raise a ton of money to pursue 5 at a time.

  • calbucks09 by calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    see you below $50 soon. bubble is over.

  • Reply to

    CASH crunch time

    by henryzxu Sep 25, 2015 11:01 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    trust me. VERY viable. in fact I would not be surprised at all if the recent friendly piper coverage is intended to improve ibanking fees chances.

  • Reply to

    CASH crunch time

    by henryzxu Sep 25, 2015 11:01 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    Isis has a great model! lowers risk but still huge upside.

  • Reply to

    ALNY Is Crashing

    by investron Aug 21, 2015 9:48 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    yep. I'm short ALNY with puts. looking for $60

  • calbucks09 by calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    something has changed in the arket. Adding to my short ALNY trade. I think the huge premium is coming out of ALNY here.

  • Reply to

    CASH crunch time

    by henryzxu Sep 25, 2015 11:01 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    option 5) let Goldman know they will be the iBanker on all future transactions in exchange for a 'buy' and a $45 price target, then do a secondary

    option 6) start co-development partnership with Gilead for combo trials of all of GILD's HBV clinical candidates, then do a secondary

    Option 7) private placement

    Option 8) sell equity stake to Roche

  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Sep 25, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Oncology data
    Chimp Data at AASLD

    additional Hepatic candidate
    Additional extra hepatic candidate

    capital raise to fund studies next Q1-Q2

117.81-0.22(-0.19%)Nov 27 1:00 PMEST