I was wrong on several counts. Excited to see that mgmt. came through. this will restore a ton of confidence in the team and I expect more coverage from Wall Street.
good post. you are absolutely correct. investors are saying 'I don't see the cashflows coming yet' and therefore don't want to bear all the risk that the products may not be efficacious or may get held up in approval etc etc... wall street has very short time horizons. they don't buy till they see the cash coming. tomorrow will likely show progress but not conclusive evidence that the hbv product will work.
This guy is just parroting what traders tell him ... zero insight into anything. And yes its clear he's reading the boards. too funny
that aint going to help her campaign funding any. but the guy this is about this Shkreli guy sounds like he should be in jail.
well, if DPC delivery of KD via RNAi has no value as you say, then ALNY is going to ZERO as well. So you should be shorting that one .... either RNAI works or it doesn't. DPC seems to get the delivery part done.
one of the things I forgot to add is, the TRUE value of the chimp studies may in fact be that they fulfill the FDA requirement for GLP long term toxicity research prior to the multi-dose approval for higher total dosing.
did some reading on the requirements, I believe if you intend to dose humans or have a marketing label allowing 3-6 months of dosing, you have to do 9months of dosing at same or higher dose in 'non-rodent' models and have the data done within 'GLP' standards, submitted to FDA. Same applies for Europe and Japan.
So I would surmise they had to do some 9month+ chimp work for that requirement, and they should have fulfilled that , allowing the FDA and Europe to lift PCH and allow up to 4mg multi dose for up to 6 months in humans.
It sounds like they hit their KD goals in chimps over extended period of time and collected data on:
1. effects of deep KD on virus and antigens
2. Effects of deep KD of SAg on immune suppression
3. Effects of long term use of ARC 520 on organ toxicity
4. Response level of immune system during ARC 520 and after ARC 520 removed to measure suppression of virus and immune system ability to clear virus
I certainly did not hear anything that indicated they have reached a state of FC or know a combination that would reach a state of FC yet.
Everything I heard was they continue to study 'the virus' and 'what effect ARC520 has on the virus'.
"We have learned a lot about the virus"
"We have learned what happens when ARC 520 is removed"
"I don't know if that's going to be enough to reach FC"
"my gut says that our most effective combination will be with an immune stimulator"
"I wouldn't be surprised if we need to add an immunomodulator"
"How much do you need to decrease S-antigen to reach a cure? ... We'll be testing that hypothesis"
"we could go higher in the future than 4mg / kg"
these all seem to point (to me at least) that they achieved their KD goals, but haven't yet seen the Immune system clear the virus and want to test immune boosters in combo to try to reach the FC in future studies.
I think anyone expecting FC in chimps is again not being realistic.
They will have all sorts of first time data on what happens when the antigens are KD, and data on toxicity (which is great). but will analysts get behind the stock ? not sure.
there is a huge difference between having experts NOT associated with the research come and analyze the data objectively vs. the scientists conducting the research coming and talking about their research.
come on HP, even you can see this difference. Lanford was part of press releases in 2013 about the original chimp data which touted 90% kd
you can't say its an indication of success that the scientists conducting the studies paid for by arrowhead are willing to show up at a arrowhead presentation and discuss the results.
"Here is my question. Do you think these guys agreed to come to a no-name small biotech's analyst day meeting just to be there for the announcement of the failure of ARC 520. Don't you think that would damage the image of their hard-earned reputation?"
get a clue. they are all working on research paid for by arrowhead. that's who is doing the trials. they aren't some random objective speakers. this is their research, paid for by arrowhead.
they want to be a platform not a single product developer. diversify risks for investors. smart. more money in oncology and don't need to "FC" anything., just therapeutic.
but you know all that. so why the old post
Compared with ZFNs and TALENs, CRISPR/Cas9 “doesn’t really achieve anything that other technologies didn’t do, but it does them more effectively, faster, and cheaper,” Rhodes points out. “It has quickened the pace of a lot of research.”
Whereas creating a knockout cell line might once have taken three to four months and cost $30,000 to $40,000, it now can be accomplished in six weeks for about $1,000 with CRISPR/Cas9. Even more remarkable, it takes a few months rather than a year or more to produce some genetically modified animals, such as mice, even with multiple changes.
he pumps his book. eg he buys something then posts nonstop how excit9ing that stock is. stock moves up 50% he sells 3 months later. what does that say about his value as a indicator
old news. whats the point? AD is the 'show me' moment. eithr they have the goods or they don't on HBV. They've signaled a move into oncology which changes the long term outlook from that last analyst assessment.
when people attack someone's grammar or writing style it usually means they are out of arguments. just a theory of course : )