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Apple Inc. Message Board

calbucks09 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 7, 2015 3:49 PM Member since: Jan 26, 2011
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  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Dec 5, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    there are 3 - 4 suits pending, if you read the 10k you can see the details. 2 require a lead plaintiff, which so far there is none. The others are not related to the securities laws, but to former subsidiaries that went bust.

  • Reply to

    Too much focus on single dose data 3&4mg/kg

    by bikerieder61 Dec 14, 2014 5:37 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Dec 14, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    while everyone here is excited about the prospects of Arc 520 based on the primate data, history is strewn with drugs that failed in human trials after positive primate studies. furthermore there are risks that competitors will have a faster or lower dose delivery option. so the idea that this is somehow a sure thing is totally ridiculous. if it were that easy roche would have kept the assets.

    I have a big chunk of cash in this and at higher prices, but this is absolutely a very risky investment. I hope people are not putting all their familys money into this. they've already had several failed drug development projects.

  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Jan 17, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    they are protecting their board seats and keeping their friends from being unseated on the board by a institutional investor interested in changing the strategy for monetizing the assets.

    its highly unlikely any hostile takeover is underway given the completely unproven nature of the assets and the competition ...

    there's a whole lot of shameless pumping going on here

  • Reply to

    Pragmatic analysis

    by hparch Jan 24, 2015 10:01 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Jan 25, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    It was the analysts who pumped the stock throughout 2014 who set artificial investor expectations. that was the problem. then Anzalone got excited thinking they were a 'big story' and went all over tv... mistake there. then they blathered about blinded data too early and hyped more. another amateur hour mistake.

    so now investors really don't know how to evaluate the story. its simple, arwr will have to prove its story with actual cured patients. if it works it works. if it doesn't it goes back to $1

    nothing complex here folks. but this stock is not going to be running hard till data firmly shows the efficacy. 3mg, 4mg won't to it anymore.

  • Reply to

    Food for thought

    by hparch Jan 31, 2015 9:10 AM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Jan 31, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    Mgmt should not release ANY more data until it shows actual efficacy with enough data to not be disputed.
    Whether its 4mg, 3mg, 6 mg whatever. any data release that is given and does NOT show conclusive FC or the stated goals have been hit will only further undermine the PERCEPTION that they don't have what they thought they did.

    its a perception they have created by trying to be too open and assuming investors would appreciate that. unfortunately hedge funds and wall street are ruthless and will take advantage all day long of a naïve ceo.

    hope Anzalone understands that.

    the other thing they need to do is add to the pipeline. Part of the vulnerability here is they really have only one shot here to take. they are going to use up all the cash they raised on a single product. adding other drugs to the pipeline would ease investors sense of risk

  • Reply to

    riddle me this batman

    by corrupt_shorters Jan 30, 2015 5:22 PM
    calbucks09 calbucks09 Jan 31, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    they believe it works. as do investors. they are taking the proper steps to navigate a multi-national regulatory environment. Makes sense

    now whether the drug works, at what dose, and how fast they can bring to market vs. competitors like TKMR is the questions short term investors are worried about. Many thought they'd have a 90%kD and might show efficacy early in phase 1, which so far hasn't happened. so therefore volatility.

    the platform has huge potential once they can show a human efficacy result. then the shares will launch

  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Feb 7, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    you're over thinking it bigtime. imagine you have 10 funds each owning different ratios of small caps, some with large biotech focus, some with very little.

    investors add cash to the funds every day and other investors make redemptions from the funds every day making the fund buy and sell proportionate amounts of each position to maintain their weightings in the fund.

    in addition you may have some tactical adjustments by the portfolio manager as some positions rise and need to be trimmed and others fall and they may add to them.

    with a fund manager like blackrock that has massive scale and amount of different managers you can't read that much into it.

    someone like soros is more a directional trade or a long/short style sector trade that wants to take positions without alerting everyone.

    in short the positions by blackrock are too noisy to make sense of.

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