bobwins, did you end up doing any trades?
I'm happy to hear people doing so well. I remember back in May 2012 when many of us here who are now short these suckers lost so much going long.
Awesome work Dan! Look forward to trading alongside you in the near future (I was more conservative today, did some Jan weeklies @ 21, and tried to do a strangle which failed because the calls became worthless ridiculously fast lol)
I agree fiddling. Unless you short these products at a huge spot VIX (30+, 40, or even 80 in 2008) where this thing will never, ever even get remotely close to that again, a short position is very risky on this, especially on margin. With puts, the most you can lose is a 100%, although time value can be a #$%$ (but peace of mind is worth that i think)...
Ask bobwins - he mentioned some users on the VXX board (and I looked up their names and found the old posts which confirmed), one guy in specific who started with $8500 and turned it into over 100 grand+ in 2-3 months in 2012 using a ton of leverage and naked call selling. Then in May 2012, amidst the Greek tragedy (lol) and rest of Europe, he lost everything and more. Bobwins said he knew some of the posters outside of just the message board, and they had to file for bankruptcy. No profit is ever worth that chance.
You are right, i think the -0.05 is showing after hours trading. It definitely opened in the 15's today because I remember the spot was higher than January, and it was in the 16's
I'm right there in the same boat with ya - exactly, overreached, gotten burned. But it takes some patience/discipline to sit there and not do anything in a month like this past November when spot was low, remained low, but this thing didn't drop much lol.
So what are your thoughts? buy puts only when spot VIX is 15? The only thing it can't protect against is a repeat of August 2011 after the S&P US downgrade, and these things tripled over the next month or so.
I saw that too, but that is the net change from open today. It opened at 14.50 but January futures were past 15 before the Fed announcement (and spot VIX was past 16)