If Pega is sold, whoever buys it will have to pay an arm and a leg. Trefler owns too much stock, and as long as the company keeps growing revenues like it is there is literally no value proposition for him to sell unless it's a stupid amount.
So, you're trying to pump a short position because insiders have sold a paltry 12,000 shares?
Hell, I own a little under half that much myself and I'm just a guy on a message board.
Top line revenue momentum is sick, any positive forward guidance at all in the conference call and we'll be at 50 soon. Halfway to Trefler's "$1 billion company" (revenue) prediction from several years ago. Well done, high fives and fist bumps all around....
Congrats on the gain. You know this stock pretty well. I have yet to sell my position which I've had since 1999 when I purchased under 10. Did buy some in the 2's circa 2000 after the bubble broke. Of course that also means I could have sold around 50 but didn't. I'm just not good with market timing and given the time value of money, you probably have come out ahead of me, lol. For some reason I just can't sell this stock as long as revenues are growing.
I can see this being a $3-5 billion market cap company and that's probably when I'll pull the trigger. Otherwise I'll most likely ride it down again.
Nice pickup. PEGA already installed at TCEQ.
PEGA owns Texas government and is just getting started in this sector. Look for more to come, both in Tx and other state / local agencies.
PEGA was $10 at the very BOTTOM of the market panic in March 2009. And it has basically doubled revenues since then.
Got caught short and getting your ripe buttocks handed to you? Only an idiot would say this stock is worth $5, even a short idiot.
The miss wasn't that bad and was already priced in by evidence of the price drop over the past month.
And don't forget that even with this miss, revenue is still up over last year's Q2.
PEGA is still in land grab mode and is working to be a $1 billion annual revenue company. Look to the added personnel for India business for evidence of this. Earnings don't mean anything at this point, only revenue growth is important. The company is on track to almost double their annual revenue in the past 3 years. If the market perceives any sustainable top line slowing, the stock will get dumped. "Sustainable" being the key word, which hasn't happened yet.
8/12 is a Sunday, so Yahoo is wrong.
If I'm not mistaken (and I could be), PEGA announced Q2 '11 on 8/8. Meaning it should be this week if things are normal.
TCEQ deal was announced last year. The others, however, are new to me.
Agree, these wins are huge. Getting entrenched into the government sector will make it rain dolla dalla bills y'all.
It's becoming obvious why Pegasystems hired all that new personnel last year. Pega's top line momentum is huge and if it can be maintained, Pega will be $billion revenue company sooner than Trefler thought.
I think we trade up to 40s again, maybe beyond if Q1 2012 is in line or guidance at that time is still good. This assumes a reasonable overall market, if NAZ stays at its current levels or within +/- 10% of it.
Even with last quarter's miss, revenue was still ramping year over year. I think Trefler was right when a few years ago he predicted this will be a $1 billion revs company.
I realize this isn't an earnings prediction in response to your post since they were released earlier today. I do generally agree with your other trading range scenarios.
Either the rally is over or an analyst put a "hold" on it so he and his clients can load up.
I would think with a correction on highs looming, today's volume, and poor overall market the past several days we'd have traded lower than we did today. But we didn't.
I think someone is trying to back up the truck. I could be wrong. But if people were trying to unload today, they either didn't do a good job someone else was buying it.
Loving the price action but expecting a pullback on profit taking and some shorting. I have no problem with the shorts piling on, it will send this thing flying if the numbers are good in August.
I still have my original position from eons ago, as in 10 years. Gonna keep riding it. Had I tried to trade the highs and lows of this stock I wouldn't be where I am today. Some traders are good at this, I'm not.
As long as the revenue keeps ramping like it has, I'm happy. I see no reason why this can't become a $5 billion market cap company which means I'm out at $130 per share or so. If PEGA keeps its current revenue growth rate that time will come sooner than later.
$40.00 was the old high in 1997 unless I'm mistaken, and with fewer shares outstanding.
Congrats to the longs.
We'll see what earnings will bring. I'm a little surprised they weren't released this week.
Last year 4Q and YE earnings were released on Feb. 23.
Not many shares being traded the past several days, looks like a lot of fence riders until the numbers come out. My gut tells me in-line results but raised guidance going forward.
With all due respect this story is about growing the top line, not earnings. Pega wants to be the biggest or one of the biggest players in this space and they are stepping up to the plate and crushing the ball quarter over quarter.
Earnings will come later after they have grabbed all the business they can in this rapidly expanding sector. Trefler wants this to be a $1 billion (revenues) company....I do believe he sees the light at the end of the tunnel and it ain't no oncoming train.
Spend money to make more money later on. Those wanting earnings right now, this is not for you....may I interest you in some utilities instead?
Did you just start following this stock yesterday, like apparently a lot of shorts have? Otherwise you would know that:
- Earnings impact this year is due to an acquisition, i.e. the company is growing, not shriveling up.
- Pega has continued to crush the top line quarter over quarter for the past few years, record revenues each time with upward revenue guidance on many of those earnings releases.
- 89 new employees added last quarter, when everyone else is laying people off.
- The company is in land grab mode, not "protecting earnings mode". Earnings don't matter when you're grabbing all the business that's ready to be had and further entrenching yourself as a leader in the space. You can fatten up the bottom line later after the lion has eaten all it wants.
Today is what happens when traders take a quick look at the bottom line and pull the trigger on a short.
First we have an analyst that downgrades to "hold" after a nice run-up, then the Seeking Alpha article, etc. The shorts then piled on and sold borrowed shares to big cigars who were backing up the truck. Friday's huge volume is an indicator of this.
Well, now that truck is loaded, the transmission has been shifted into Drive, and shorts are bugs on the windshield.
You don't see 10% price movements on no news without this being the case.
Like I said before, Pega sees the big picture, it is in land grab mode and is not going to let short term earnings hits caused by slicing off bigger pieces of pie deter it from its growth strategy.
Trefler isn't selling because he cares about long term value and couldn't care less what a bunch of day traders or short term position players think. Nor does he care if his EPS doesn't hit targets that analysts (other people on the outside looking in) think it should hit.
While most everyone else is laying off employees and going into a shell in this economic environment, Pega is hiring, kicking tail and taking everyone's lunch money.
This stock is wayyyy oversold.
I'll re-phrase your own question for you: Do you work for PEGA's competition?
Or are you just a short shill?
Because PEGA grew revenues in both good and bad economies, refuting your argument.
And if you're so familiar with their product and think it can't cut it, you would have pulled the trigger on those puts instead of just talking about it.