I don't know about your math, but buying at the open seemed like a no brainer to me. Got a bunch this morning @13.25, which is right at recent support. Also seems like oil has found nice bottom support. Gotta think this goes munch much higher from here.
Might see a gap in the morning, but without follow-up news, as you say...I think it does drift way down from these levels. How much I don't know, but 2-3 dollars is not out of the question. I think most of the volume today was from day traders. not investors. When the price stops rising the traders will move on, leaving a lot folks holding a bag.
Yes, I've been on and off the board for a while. I don't pay much attention to those self-proclaimed experts who claim to have predicted every positive move a stock may experience. I bought a modest position here @6.59 avg. Plan on holding a few years at least or until oil prices get back close to where they were. Only the naïve would believe oil will stay at these levels for a period on years. There will be bumpy times ahead, but I feel much better knowing DNR is run by top notch mangers.