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Response Genetics, Inc Message Board

calif_grl99 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 3, 2016 12:54 PM Member since: Jan 12, 2006
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  • 2 separate insiders picked up more shares.

  • Reply to

    Riding Sharing and Rental Cars Segment

    by ovidevideo May 24, 2016 6:00 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 May 31, 2016 4:26 PM Flag

    Like all of your examples, the proof that UBER / LYFT have lowered rental car pricing is anecdotal. But note: Given how far along we are in the economic expansion, historically by this time, rental cars should be enjoying nice pricing power, but its obvious that isn't happening this cycle. So what has changed? One clear factor is UBER & LYFT. Again, *Anecdotally* they could be hurting pricing by taking a small % of potential renters (ie. at the margin). The jury is still out... Additionally, like you, I do NOT think UBER & LYFT are a existential threat to the rental car industry. *IF* rental co's don't get any pricing power in 2016 given the rising industry related costs & the downsizing of fleets (i.e. the industry is NOT over-fleeted), then its fair to conclude UBER/LYFT are the PRIMARY reason for the industries lack of pricing power - we will see. Either way, with/without pricing power, the #1 priority should be decreasing their cost structure and improving efficiency / utilization, both of which are in their control and happening. Again, I just wish they would speed it up!

  • Reply to

    Riding Sharing and Rental Cars Segment

    by ovidevideo May 24, 2016 6:00 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 May 31, 2016 10:12 AM Flag

    Yep, theres a long way to go to get back to those lofty stock prices. I think the stock has gotten so clobbered because 1) its cyclical industry, and there are plenty of fears we are near the end of this economic expansion cycle 2) Used car values have dropped, and there is a glut of used car product coming off lease 3) At this stage in the cycle, HTZ/CAR should have been able to raise prices by now. If they can't in 2016, with higher costs, then its clear to me, that UBER / LYFT as competitors has served to lower pricing across the rental market. 4) the turn around wasnt expected to take until 2018-20 to come to full fruition...Nov 2015 investor meeting was a bit of (negative) surprise to the market (imho)- RE: how long the turn-around will take. However, having said that, the $$ amount Tague / Htz are predicting they can cut from the expense structure dwarfs even the most optimistic analyst view at the time of his arrival... I think they are on the right course, I just wish they would speed it up a year to their "Full Potential" predictions of ~16%+ adj ebitda margins...

  • Reply to

    Riding Sharing and Rental Cars Segment

    by ovidevideo May 24, 2016 6:00 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 May 25, 2016 10:24 AM Flag

    I think that mgt sees this and is responding. Operationally, they appear to be doing the right things to position themselves to compete. The first order of business is reducing their cost structure to become the most efficient renter in the business. They are on par with CAR (Avis Budget) RE: Margins, but still need to catch up to Enterprise, the industry leader. In concert with that, the opportunity to improve technology to improve the rental experience is huge. I use the kiosks (where available) when I fly AND rent vehicles, and they are fast and painless, compared to dealing with a line and a slower human customer service rep. I suspect that in the future (next 2 - 3 years) kiosks will take over the rental car industry (I.E. replace many humans at the desk), tied to an APP. They already have the technology, just need to implement it more broadly. Customer service would go up, long lines would go down, and field related employee expenses would go down. Hopefully way down. CAR (Avis) said on latest conference call that field employee expense in the U.S. alone is $750mm. HTZ should be even more, given its larger U.S. footprint, if they could cut 15-20% of expenses off that number while at the same time improving customer service and tie-ing its customer base into using an APP, it would be a vast improvement from where they are now. I believe this is the go forward strategy for both HTZ and CAR.

  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Apr 17, 2016 10:58 PM Flag

    JMHO, CAR already refi'd ALL of the $550m 2017 corp debt due. Pushed out to 2024. You left out that SRS investment mgt, a tiger cub, owns 22% of the shares outstanding (9.5% of shares + 12.5% through synthetic swap position) and they now have two people on the board. I think/hope they will put pressure (be a catalyst) for getting mgt to more aggressively cut costs? Clearly CAR (and HTZ) are undervalued (unless U#$%$ recession) Though I think Enterprise is best in breed for profit margins, rev growth, AND marketshare, the three most important business / industry metrics. Also, I would rather have the HTZ mgt team then the CAR mgt team, they are shaking things up at HTZ, CAR mgt is steady, but incremental. Again, JMHO.

  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Apr 11, 2016 9:45 PM Flag

    The CFO for HTZ, Tom Kennedy was CFO for Vanguard Group the parent of Alamo/National when Enterprise acquired them. He then worked for Enterprise during the transition. He stated Enterprise has industry leading Ebitda margins of between 20-22% when he was there - and thats what HTZ will be driving toward when he (and HTZ mgt) gave their 3 year plan in Nov 2015 during their investor day.

  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Apr 11, 2016 6:44 PM Flag

    And I am long CAR, especially at these prices. If they come anywhere near their FCF guidance for 2016 of $450-$500m its trading 4.0-4.5x FCF. Seems too cheap at these prices, imho. I can only hope SRS lights a fire on them, with their equity AND swaps they own a whopping 22% of CAR stock. They need this to get turned around.

  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Apr 11, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    I don't even know who ABG is, and no I don't work for CAR or HTZ. The reason I propose these solutions is bc Enterprise has ebitda margins of ~20% yet CAR is at 10.6% and HTZ is also at 10% but, on it way to 16-18% ebitda by 2018 (goal). Cant win when your competitors are eating your lunch. This is a no-growth business, thus, CAR needs to get more competitive on cost structure.

  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Apr 11, 2016 6:19 PM Flag

    Move HQ out of NJ - highest cost state in the nation and high state taxes. Break the leases get state money (like HTZ did) to Relocate to FLA, TX or NV. Expedite implementation of technology, especially kiosks at all rental car outlets, cut outlet staff by 20% - while decreasing wait times. Continue to strengthen board, several BoD's add little to no value. Get rid of Larry De Shon who is an incrementalist, with no clear vision of the future. This company needs an overhaul based on creative, out of the box thinking, not his entrenched plan that lacks vision. They are third best out of 3 industry players, but should be focusing and communicating how they will be THE BEST in the industry. I think HTZ is ahead of CAR on rethinking the business, thanks to Icahn's board members, and certainly ahead on cost cutting.

  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Apr 11, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    More pricing pressure announced by HTZ today, both stocks hit. Like I said, CAR needs to cut its expenses to get them in line with industry leader, Enterprise. Once all three have similar margins, the price war stops. But for now, Enterprise can "out-discount" both HTZ and CAR b/c they have industry leading cost structure (i.e. they are they low cost producer - econ 101). HTZ understands this and is cutting its costs dramatically, CAR isn't, but needs to, hopefully SRS puts some pressure on CAR mgt.

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