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AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACRX) Message Board

calif_grl99 13 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Jan 12, 2006
  • calif_grl99 calif_grl99 22 hours ago Flag

    Whitney Tilson

  • Reply to

    Are they still counting tires?

    by optopnplanet Feb 24, 2015 11:08 AM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Feb 25, 2015 8:19 AM Flag

    Why wouldn't a portion of the debt be allocated to the new Hertz Equipment Rental HERC? You don't make any sense.

    Lets review what HTZ has already done:
    -HTZ has already raised prices to match competitors - this will have a very positive impact on profit margins.
    -It has begun / has plans to cut $100mm a year in op expenses.
    -Has the most shareholder friendly board (and mgt) its ever had.
    -New CEO bought $2mm in stock with his own money at prices ABOVE where it trades today.
    -Is undervalued vs its peers.
    -Is ready to spin HERC soon (which will be allocated a portion of the debt.
    -HTZ should be able to raise at least $3B in cash with HERC spin, which given Tague was handpicked by Icahn (who loves companies that buyback shares) we can assume that the board and Tague will aggressively buyback stock.
    - We have an estimate for timing now on the financials - June.
    -Some of the absolute best investors are long the stock, including : Icahn, Jana, Glenview, Fir Tree, Tiger, etc, etc.- Many of which have increased their position aggressively based on most recent filings.
    - I think Id rather put my on them and their analysis given their history of finding great investments.

  • Reply to

    Are they still counting tires?

    by optopnplanet Feb 24, 2015 11:08 AM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Feb 24, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    Depends on your definition of "near future". Mgt has already stated publicly its plans to spin it. If they get the Financials out in June (as Rosenstein said) timing for a divestiture of Hertz equipment should be relatively soon after. Exact timing unknown, but certainly this year. Possibly this summer? Either way, it will give them a significant cash flow infusion and that is precisely what Barry is referring to when he says they will have the wherewithal to buyback ~20% of the shares.

  • Reply to

    Are they still counting tires?

    by optopnplanet Feb 24, 2015 11:08 AM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Feb 24, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Every analyst I've seen said a spin-off of Hertz equipment rental would fetch between $3B - $4B for HTZ. That should be plenty of money to facilitate a large buyback.

  • more than triples its investment in HTZ to 35m shares.

  • Reply to

    Icahn

    by vincent90157 Feb 17, 2015 8:26 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Feb 18, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    And Jana Partners more than tripled its stake in HTZ

  • calif_grl99 by calif_grl99 Feb 13, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    That well respected HF/investor has taken a position and will be filing their 13F today or Monday? I think some traders / investors see this as a potential catalyst that smart, long term money is coming into the stock.

  • Reply to

    pass 35.50 going straight to 55

    by rocket_sears Feb 13, 2015 11:08 AM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Feb 13, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Personally I'd like to see it break the 1/13 high before giving it lofty targets. But the technical picture looks good!

  • Reply to

    Why the shorts are pounding MONI

    by value.hunter Jan 18, 2015 12:30 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Jan 18, 2015 8:37 PM Flag

    i realize that. They aren't comparable though. Different business models, products, operating leverage (margins) businesses. So your analysis above should take that into consideration. MONI should command a much higher multiple than these companies, just like QTWO does. Investors in QTWO recognize the operating leverage of the business model in a high growth niche. Thus it commands a huge valuation. If MONI just modestly executes, it will achieve similar type valuations, imho.

  • Reply to

    Why the shorts are pounding MONI

    by value.hunter Jan 18, 2015 12:30 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Jan 18, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Personally, I don't think this list of companies are very comparable to MONI. JMHO, but Many on your list are lumbering giants whose core ops isn't providing mobile banking to FI's. I realize that there isn't many publicly traded comps though, most of MONI's competition are private companies. Many names on your list derive a large part of their rev's from credit/debit card processing. That is a low margin/ fairly low growth, competitive business. Not one has a SAAS model in the mobile banking channel. I was wondering why QTWO, which is a direct competitor to MONI in the U.S. didn't make your list, they are an omni channel provider of both internet banking and mobile banking directly to FI's, but isn't on your list? Maybe take a look at them. They aren't profitable, but garner a huge valuation. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    Why the shorts are pounding MONI

    by value.hunter Jan 18, 2015 12:30 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Jan 18, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    "Taking a look at MONI's peer group the average EV/Sales is 3x but most of these companies are EBITDA and NI positive and have higher topline growth rates"

    VH, Who is MONI's peer group that you are using as valuation comps ?

  • Reply to

    Buse

    by ramimd Jan 13, 2015 5:47 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Jan 13, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    Agreed, but the window isn't open for insiders to buy.

  • Reply to

    Questions to be answere?

    by value.hunter Jan 8, 2015 2:24 PM
    calif_grl99 calif_grl99 Jan 9, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    Why did MONI issue shares at an low when they had ample cash?
    - Gives MONI more Flexibility and based on projected cash burn rates, they needed more money to get to B/E
    Why have there been no material insider purchases from some very wealthy people (ie mgmt)?
    - 3 BoD and a CEO have all bought some shares in September. Would be nice to see more buying, maybe the window is closed till IR day - if they still have material info to disclose to investors.
    Why have there been no material NEW contract wins that arent renewals?
    - Large banks don't move fast; ATM, MONI's main focus is on upselling their existing clients on Monitise Content (deals/offers). They may be waiting on reporting any upsell wins until the 6 month update. Also, the MCP is what allows MONI to separate out its product offering, and its not completed yet.
    Why havent the shorts covered any shares?
    - They have, short interest went from 8%+ to 5% currently based on latest disclosures I've seen. Here's the link for proof.
    http://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1YMRB82/all

ACRX
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